Volcanic Activity in the framework of COSMOS

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Volcanic Activity in the framework of COSMOS
Stephan J. Lorenz, Claudia Timmreck, H. Graf Max
Planck Institute for Meteorology Hamburg COSMOS,
June 16, 2009
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Outline

• General Overview
• Activites at MPI-M
• Limited temperature response to the unknown 1258
  AD eruption
• Yellowstone Experiment
• Activities at IFM-GEOMAR
• Climate effects of paleo Central and South
  American major volcanic eruptions

Photos USGS
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Volcanic activity group in COSMOS(H. Graf, C.
Timmreck)

• Volcanic eruptions as test bed for climate models
• Why cant the models reproduce observations
• stationary planetary waves are under-represented
  in the models due to ? Topography? Resolution?
• Climate relevant eruptions and super eruptions
• What are the effects on the coupled earth system?
• In-plume processes, injection heights,
• Quasi permanent degassing and smaller eruptions
• new data are available, new effects can be
  included now atmospheric chemistry,
  aerosol-cloud,

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Volcanic activity group in COSMOS (H. Graf, C.
Timmreck)

• Special session at the EGU General Assembly 2009
  in Vienna Volcanic Activity and the Earth
  System
• 6 talks and 13 poster contributions from a
  variety of fields climate modellers, data
  analysts, in-situ and remote sensing specialists,
  process modelers which reviewed the current
  state of knowledge
• Volcano Meeting in Zürich, Switzerland, 8-9th
  July 2009 organized by the ETHZ.
• to discuss major uncertainties in modeling the
  atmospheric effects of volcanic eruptions
• focus on the stratosphere and upper troposphere.

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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MPI Super Volcano Group(C. Timmreck coord.)

• Several interesting studies in the frame of the
  MPI Super Volcano project
• e. g. Yellowstone Experiment
• Close collaboration with Millennium Project
• e.g. Limited temperature response of the 1258 AD
  eruption
• Contribution to WMO CCMVAL Assessment Report
• Involvement in third part funded projects
• FP7 programm IMPLICC -gt talk Hauke Schmidt
• SFB574 (IFM-GEOMAR) subproject C5
• CLISAP project Impact of large-magnitude
  volcanic eruptions on ocean fertilization and the
  global CO2 budget
• Further information can be found under
• http//www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/working-g
  roups/super-volcanoes.html

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Volcanic activity group in COSMOS(Summary)

• Volcanic activity group is currently in the state
  of information exchange (EGU, ETHZ workshop)
  common activities are currently in the state of
  development
• Short report on a few activities
• Large eruption in 1258 AD
• First Supervolcano Experiment
• Yellowstone, 600,000 years ago
• IfM Geomar
• last 200,000 years in Central and South America
• Several more groups are active

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Limited temperature response to the unknown 1258
AD eruption( Timmreck, Lorenz, Crowley, Kinne,
Raddatz, Thomas, Jungclaus)

• Largest eruption in the last 10,000 years 1258
  eruption
• Large sulphate signals in ice core data of both
  hemispheres
• Tropical eruption, unknown location
• 170 Mt SO2 10 times Pinatubo

• Paleo temperature reconstructions suggest less
  intense response than expected from sulphate
  signals in ice cores
• A possible reason shift of aerosol size
  distribution to larger particles

El Chichon 1983, photo Bil Rose
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Time Dependent Volcanic Forcing
1258 eruption
Kuwae
Huaynaputina
Krakatau
Pinatubo
Tambora

• Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)

800 1200 1600 2000
µm

• Effective radius distribution

800 1200 1600 2000
Stratospheric sulphate aerosol (T. Crowley,
University of Edinburgh)
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Global Near Surface Temperature
Three sets of Ensemble Experiments with varying
particle radii using cosmos Model (Millennium
version, T31/GR30)
Timmreck et al., submitted
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Comparison with Proxy Data

• New proxy-data (Crowley 2008, unpublished data)
• Terrestrial data
• Extratropics 30oN-90oN
• Summer (Apr.-Sept.)
• Closed symbols significant at 90 level

• Ensembles necessary

Timmreck et al., submitted
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Climate Signal of 1258 eruption

• Larger aerosol particle radii match better
  limited temperature response in reconstructions
• Diffusive radiation effect cannot explain weak
  cooling signal in tree-ring proxies for large
  volcanic events
• Growth and decay rate of the AOD and Reff
• Derived from Pinatubo observation/simulation
• Higher sedimentation rates for larger particles
  possibly further limit cooling due to faster
  fallout
• Interaction of large volcanic eruptions with
  tropical Pacific dynamics (ENSO) subject of
  investigation

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Supervolcanoes (SV)
Unknown 1258 A.D AOD 0.7
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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The Yellowstone Experiment(MPI Super Volcano
Group)
Aerosol Optical depth (AOD) and effective radius
(reff)

• Atm. Model ECHAM-HAM
• ECHAM5 T42/L39
• middle atmosphere version
• aerosol microphysics (HAM)
• parametrised chemistry

Millennium Earth System Model
AtmosphereECHAM5 T31/L19
Injection of 1700 MT SO2 over 10 days in June
Momentum, Energy, H2O, CO2
OceanMPIOM 3L40 HAMOCC
LandHD JSBACH
Simulation chain
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Aerosol Optical Depth at 0.55mm
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AOD calculated by ECHAM-HAM, distributed as a
function of effective radius over the spectral
bands of the ECHAM5 radiation scheme in the
Millennium model
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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2m Temperature Anomalies K
3 months running average
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Impact on the CO2 Cycle
Atmosphere
Ocean Sediments
Ano. Carbon Inv. Gt C
Anomalies in Carbon Inventory Gt C
Land
Yellowstone Eruption 1258 AD Mill. Exp.(avg)

• Strong cooling leads to a decrease in netto
  primary production (NPP) in the first years
• After 5 years increased CO2 uptake of tropical
  soil becomes important

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Conclusions (SV)

• Our 1st Yellowstone simulation shows that a super
  eruption does not necessarily disturb the climate
  system over a longer time scale.
• Caveats
• Large ash blanket -gt higher surface albedo
• Neglecting seasonal differences
• Fine ash
• fertilization of the ocean
• Impact on vegetation
• New model run will be set up throughout this
  summer

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Climate effects of paleo Central and South
American major volcanic eruptions using
petrologic reconstructions and climate models
Kirstin Krüger,Claudia Timmreck, Doreen Metzner,
Matt Toohey and SFB 574 members
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Project work I Paleo climate relevance of
Central American and Chilean volcanic eruptions
Central American Volcanic Arc eruptions

Los Chocoyos (1/4 Toba)
Max. Column Height km
Time ka
Earth Climate System Model of
Intermediate Complexity (EMIC)
In cooperation with Martin Claussen and Victor
Brovkin (MPI-M, Uni Hamburg,PIK)
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Project work II Climate effects and
feedbacks of volcanic eruptions in
Central America and Chile
SFB 574
Los Chocoyos
Max. Column Height km
Thank you for your attention
Time ka

• Improved Climate Models/
• Realistic Volcanic Forcing
• Input from CAVA
• Max. column height,
• SO2 emissions,
• halogen emissions,
• CO2 and CH4 fluxes.

Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Thank You
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Super Eruptions

• Super eruptions gt 1015kg magma 1000 km3 ash,
  gt1000 Mt SO2
• Very rare events, but periods with higher
  volcanic activity

DRE Dry Rock Equivalent (volume of erupted
material)
Mason et al, (2004)
Mlog10(m)-/.0
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2m Temperature Anomalies K
Annual average for the 2nd year after the eruption
Green line 95 signifcant
Overview 1258 AD Eruption Yellowstone
Experiment IFM Geomar
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Tropical Pacific
Surface Temperature Anomalies K
After the volcanic eruption the ENSO amplitude is
amplified. Ensemble runs are necessary. Volcanic
eruption in another ENSO phase.
Nino3.4 Index
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Forcing for the unknown 1258 Eruption

• New volcanic forcing data set (Crowley 2008)
• 10 day timestep
• 4 equal area latitude bands
• 90oS-30oS, 30oS-0o, 0o-30oN, 30o-90oN
• Stratosphere 20-86 hPa
• Best guess R0.7 u maximum effective radius
  0.7 µm

Introduction Model and Forcing Results
Proxy Data Cooperation
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Sensitivity Studies

• Effective particle radii (fixed aerosol mass)
• R0.7 Best guess (0.7 µm)
• R0.2 Background size (0.2 µm)
• R1,3 Doubled radius (above background, 1.3 µm)
• Ensemble experiments, 10 members each

Introduction Model and Forcing Results
Proxy Data Cooperation
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Diffusive Radiation

• Increasing opposing signals with decreasing
  effective radius
• Ratio -Ddiff / Dglob decreases
• Loss in global radiation dominates for volcanic
  eruptions with large AOD

gain in diffuse radiation
loss in global radiation
Courtesy T. Raddatz
Introduction Model and Forcing Results
Proxy Data Cooperation
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Aerosol Microphysics in ECHAM Family

• Under framework of the Supervolcano group
  (Claudia Timmreck, Ulrike Niemeier, )

• Separate ash module for the global transport of
  fine ash which can be run with and without HAM
• Forcing for Millennium model
• Important for large volcanoes,
• Geoengineering experiments
• IMPLICC project

• COSMOS ESM
• ECHAM5 T31/L19 JSBACH
• MPIOM GR30/L40 HAMOCC
• higher resolution T63/L47TP1

AOD Reff

• Chemistry Climate Model
• MAECHAM5 T42/L39
• middle atmosphere version
• aerosol microphysics (HAM)
• Trop. stratospheric chemistry

Volcanic gases