Purpose

1
Purpose

• Clarify key constructs

• Categorize countries

• Discuss USAIDs role

• Identify policy and operational issues

2

• Tentative ideas

• Purpose to stimulate discussions

• Highlight selected issues

3
Conceptualizing Conflict

• Considerable ambiguity

• Conflicts are universal

• Can contribute to progress

• Development can cause conflict

4
Deadly Conflicts

• A sub-set of conflicts

• Intrastate conflicts in which belligerents resort
  to military actions

5
Characteristics of Deadly Conflicts

• Insurgents seek change in regime or in
  institutional arrangements of the state

• Battle-related casualties, at least 1,000 per year

• Massive displacement

6
Conflict Prevention

• International relations

• Short-term policies, strategies, and activities

• National and international actors

• Prevent armed actions by belligerent parties

7
Traditional Tools

• Preventive and two-track diplomacy

• Peacekeeping operations

• Economic sanctions

• Arbitration and mediation

8

• Limited role for USAID

• Need for a broader conceptualization

• Focus on developmental and humanitarian
  interventions

9
(a) Reduce or mitigate systemic, structural
conditions contributing to deadly conflicts
(b) Strengthen indigenous institutional capacity
to peacefully resolve political disputes
(c) Reduce the probability of recurrence of a
deadly conflict.
10
Developmental Assistance and Conflict Prevention

• Reduces poverty and deprivation

• Generates resources for building political and
  legal institutions

• Supports democratic institutions

11
Effects of Assistance

• Long-term

• Does not control or moderate all contributing
  factors

• Significant but not decisive role

12
Three categories

• Postconflict societies

• Countries in civil wars

• Highly vulnerable societies

13
Postconflict Societies

• Integrated development strategy

• Tensions between reform and stability

• Long-term horizon

14
Reasonable Success

• Latin America and Asia

• Limited success in Africa

15
Reasons for Success

• Causes of conflict understood

• Contact with leaders

• Accords specify follow-up actions

• War fatigue

16
Countries in conflict USAID

• Provides relief to war victims

• Complements international peace efforts

• Uses assistance as leverage for peace

17
Relief can prolong conflicts

• Belligerents gain resources

• Alleviates pressure to feed people

• Belligerents gain legitimacy

18
CNN Factor

• Ethical and moral imperatives

• Political consideration

• Increased sensitivity

19
Vulnerable Societies
Rationale for conflict prevention

• Developmental grounds

• Ethical considerations

• Political pressure

20
USAIDs Current Roles

• Cooperation with international agencies

• Vulnerability analyses

• Reorganization and reorientation of development
  programs

21
Major Obstacles

• Limited experience

• Limited resources

• Past experience not encouraging

22
Issue 1. Identification of vulnerable societies

• Early warning system

• Limitations of early warning systems

• Disappointing past experience

• Structural versus triggering factors

23
Issue 2. Early Warning System

• USAID builds it

• Depends on intelligence agencies

• Works with donor agencies

24
Issue 3. Selection of Countries

• Work in all vulnerable societies

• Work in selected countries

25
Issue 4. Conflict Prevention Programs

• Conventional programs insufficient

• Limited effects on structural factors

• Assistance failed in civil war countries

26
Need for cost-effective, practical interventions
which can

• Reduce tensions

• Prevent escalation of disputes

• Complement international diplomatic and political
  efforts

27
Examples

• Mass media interventions

• Peace committees and conflict resolution

• Special programs for vulnerable, restive groups

• Security sector reforms

28
Conclusion
Should We Intervene?

• Postconflict societies Yes

• Countries in war Yes

• Vulnerable societies Caution