PA 874, Session 7

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PA 874, Session 7

• Policy Analysis

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Overview

• Different Approach Today
• Before Discussing Weimers Case Study, We Will
  Put That Example in Context
• Eugene Bardachs Eight-Step Guide to Policy
  Analysis
• Bardach Was Davids Mentor at Berkeley

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The Eight Step Approach

• Defining the Problem
• Assemble Some Evidence
• Constructing the Alternatives
• Select the Criteria
• Project the Outcomes
• Confront the Tradeoffs
• Decide
• Tell Your Story

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Step 1 Defining the Problem

• Originates With client, often in a political
  context
• Is it a Public Problem?
• Two Basic Spheres
• Market Failures
• Private Conditions that Warrant Government Action
• Some DOS
• Think of Deficits or Excess - Too Little Too
  Much
• Quantify
• Iterate Definitions
• Some DONTS
• Solutions as Problems
• Causal Assumptions Built In

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Step 2 Assemble Some Evidence

• The Analogy To Law, a Legal Brief
• Three Distinctions Data Information and
  Evidence
• DOS
• Think and Plan
• Review the Literature
• Educated Guesses
• Best Practices
• DONTS
• Over Collect

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Step 3 Construct the Alternatives

• Take No Action Alternative 1
• Start Comprehensively then Focus
• Use of Models
• Market Models
• Production Models
• Evolutionary Models

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Alternatives (Cont.)

• Conceptualize and Simplify
• Basic Alternatives
• Then Variants
• Run Them Up the Flagpole
• Consult With Your Clients
• Saves Time and Grief if Off-base

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Step 4 Select the Criteria

• Separate from Alternatives
• Evaluative (Some discussion Already)
• Efficiency
• Cost Effectiveness Analysis
• Benefit Cost Analysis
• Equity/Equality
• Freedom/Community (?)
• Process Values

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Criteria (Cont.)

• Practical Criteria
• Legal/Constitutional
• Politically Acceptable
• Robust to Implementation, Uncertainty
• Iterative Processing

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Step 5 Project Outcomes

• The Hardest Step
• Causal Modeling Important May Be words
• Project Direction, Magnitude, Probability
• Breakeven Estimates Go/No Point
• Sensitivity Analysis
• Avoiding Being Too Optimistic
• Construct an Outcome Matrix

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Step 6 Confront the Trade-Offs

• Work off the Outcome Matrix
• Focus on Marginal Effects
• Aids in the Analysis
• Critical Tradeoffs
• Eliminate Weak Alternatives
• Use the Present as a Critical Benchmark

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Step 7 Decide!

• May not be cut and dried, but must be done.
• Signal If it is very hard uncertain
  Rethink?
• Can Provide Pros and Cons
• Can present Array, but need to rank.

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Step 8 Tell Your Story

• Grandma Bessie Problem and Answer in Several
  minutes of Talking
• Gauge Your Audience
• Pick Your Format Style\
• Report
• Verbal Presentation
• Memorandum

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Story (Cont.)

• Create a Logical Narrative
• Executive Summary
• Tables and Graphs Stand Alone
• Use Appendices For More Complex Talking to
  the Expert
• Reference Serve the Same Purpose
• Press Release?

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Canadian Salmon Fisheries

• What is this About?
• What is the Essence of the Problem?
• What are the Relevant Alternatives (Matrix)?
• What are the Criteria?
• What is the Decisions?