Are East Asian Countries politically stable

1
Are East Asian Countries politically stable?

• Dr Priyambudi Sulistiyanto
• Flinders Asia Centre
• School of Political and International Studies
• Flinders University
• Adelaide - Australia

2
Themes

• Contending perspectives on the political economy
  of East Asian region
• East Asia economic and political trajectories
• Globalisation and Localism emerging trends
• Scenarios
• The Indonesian case

3
Contending perspectives on the political economy
of East Asian region

• Neo-classical political economy
• State as public providers
• Private sector (relatively free)
• Political pluralism
• Developmentalist political economy
• Strong state
• Private sector (limited role)
• Authoritarian politics (gradual change to
  democracy)
• Socialist-led market economy
• Strong state
• Private sector and state capital
• Single-party politics
• Populist/Globalist-led market economy
• Strong state and (sometimes) weak state
• Private sector (relatively free)
• Semi-democracy (authoritarian and democracy)

4
Economic change, political change

• Economic crises shape countries, but crises
  also express what is happening within those
  countries. Both crises and countries change over
  time, so that relationships change as well. And
  every country faces each crisis differently
• Source Gourevitch (198619)

5
East Asia economic and political trajectories

• Colonial legacies
• Cold war
• Post-war recovery
• The US factor aid and strategic alliance
• Strong leaders
• Authoritarian political systems
• Economic progress
• Democratization in the 1990s
• Government types multi-party, dominant party,
  hybrid, military, monarchy
• Civil society

6
Globalisation and Localismemerging trends

• Global village
• Financial transactions
• Exchange of ideas
• International migration
• Information technology
• Pop culture MTV Asia, CNA, Korean wave
• Global city, metropolitan and village

7
Comparing economic crises1997/1998 and 2008

• The 1997-1998 economic crisis
• Asia currency meltdown
• Regime changes
• Elite rivalry
• Democratization
• Middle class revolutions
• Popular protests
• The 2008 economic crisis
• USA Wall street meltdown
• Electoral reactions
• Economic reorientations (state intervention)
• Bailing out
• Middle class anxiety
• Whither globalization?

8
Scenarios

• Multi-party system electoralism, policy
  reorientations, public debate, sectoral protests
  and civil society
• Dominant party system state intervention,
  political control, middle class anxiety and civil
  society
• Hybrid elite rivalry, gradual opening up,
  critical middle class and civil society
• Military state intervention, oppression of
  opposition groups and external pressures
• Monarchy state intervention, economic packages,
  political control, birth of parliament (?) and
  loyalty.

9
The Indonesian case (1998-2008)

• Economic crisis, political change
• Democratic transition the 1999 elections
• Democratic consolidation the 2004 elections
• Decentralization 2001
• Deepening democracy local elections (2005-2008)
• Prospects of the 2009 elections SBY, Megawati
  and Sultan Hamengkubuwono X

10

• Thank you, terima kasih