MEXICO

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MEXICO A Game of Chutes and Ladders?
Jorge G. Gonzalez Trinity University
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Recent Economic and Political Events

• Economic recovery in the U.S.
• Government gridlock
• Political scandals (AMLO and PRI)
• Mexico U.S. relationship

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Vital Signs

• Is the link alive?

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Industrial Production Index(January 2000 100)
Source Banco de México and FED
www.banxico.org.mx www.federalreserve.gov
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Vital Signs

• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth

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Real GDP yearly change
Source INEGI www.inegi.gob.mx
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Vital Signs

• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth
• Direct foreign investment

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Foreign Direct InvestmentBillions of Dollars
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Debt Market Foreign InvestmentBillions of
Dollars
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Vital Signs

• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth
• Direct foreign investment
• Super Peso and foreign sector

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Exchange RatePesos per U.S. Dollar
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Exchange RatePesos per U.S. Dollar
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Inflation Differential vs. Exchange Rate
317
Inflation
232
Exchange Rate
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Merchandise TradeBillions of Dollars
Imports
Exports
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Family RemittancesBillions of Dollars
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Vital Signs

• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth
• Direct foreign investment
• Super Peso and foreign sector
• Federal government balance

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Government BalanceBalance / GDP
Source SHCP www.shcp.gob.mx
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Vital Signs

• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth
• Direct foreign investment
• Super Peso and foreign sector
• Federal government balance
• War on inflation

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Inflation
Source Banco de México
www.banxico.org.mx
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Vital Signs
Diagnosis Stability

• Is the link alive?
• GDP growth
• Direct Foreign Investment
• Super Peso and Foreign Sector
• Federal Government Balance
• War on Inflation

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Political Environment

• Presidential elections

Felipe Calderón
Roberto Madrazo
Andrés López Obrador
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Political Environment

• Presidential elections
• Structural reform paralysis

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A Game of Chutes and Ladders?

• Incredible transformation with stability
• Foxs legacy Separation of powers
• Much work to be done
• Grave danger Rule of law

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A Game of Chutes and Ladders?
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MEXICO A Game of Chutes and Ladders?
www.trinity.edu/jgonzal1
jorge.gonzalez_at_trinity.edu