On scientific method

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On scientific method
Presentation 7 Environment and Sustainable
Development course UNU-MERIT PhD programme

• René Kemp

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What is science?

• It is what scientists do reading, researching,
  writing, talking to each other, create clubs
• It is the process of hypothesis formation,
  empirical testing, hypothesis reformulation,
  retesting, and so on
• Falsification or verification?

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Hypotheses of Adeoti

• H1a The introduction of the S.I.8/S.I.9
  environmental regulatory law has led to increased
  adoption of wastewater treatment plants in the
  Nigerian manufacturing industry.
• H2a The adoption of EBT will be positively
  correlated with the firms internal capability
  for innovation as defined by the share of
  technical personnel in the total employment.
•  H2b The adoption of EBT may be related to the
  existing level of investment in capital equipment
  for the main production activities.
• H2c The capability of a firm to adopt an EBT
  will be inherently determined by the
  technological knowledge related network contacts
  a firm has.
• H2f The type of EBT adopted for compliance with
  the S.I.8/S.I.9 regulation depends on the
  strategy for environmental policy implementation,
  whether co-operative or antagonistic.

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Questions of transitions project

• Q1 Are there identifiable transition phases such
  as the predevelopment stage, take-off stage,
  breakthrough stage and stabilisation stage? Can
  such stages be operationalised?
• Q2 To what extent were TT foreseen, expected and
  intentionally managed, at the different stages?
  What was the role of widely shared expectations?
• Q3 Are there common strategic behavioural
  patterns in transitions (such as regime actors
  first fighting a new development pioneered by
  niche actors and later on sustaining it)?
• Q4 What role did incremental innovation play in
  TT? Did it help to sustain the old regime
  (sailing ship effect) by defending it against a
  new development or did it provide opportunities
  for further change (stepping stone dynamic)?
• Q5 Does the interplay of technical change and
  institutional change differ in different
  transitions and in various phases of a particular
  transition? Does technical change lead/precede
  institutional change or is it the other way
  round?
• Q6 What was the role of public authorities (in
  different phases)? What do the transitions tell
  about the proper role of public authorities and
  public policy in various transition stages?

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What characterises social science?

• A world that is infinitely complex
• In which people are suspended in webs of
  significance (Geertz)
• reflective thought precedes science which merely
  employs it more methodologically. Man cannot live
  among things without forming ideas about them
  Because these notions are closer to us than the
  realities to which they correspond, we naturally
  tend to substitute them for the realities,
  concentrating our speculations upon them
  (Durkheim)

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Theoretical frameworks are not falsified but
accepted as the basis for research

• If you are a neoclassical economists you do not
  seek to falsify the neoclassical framework of
  rational actors, you work with it
• Are theories falsified? Some are, others are not.
• Theories are appraised in the light of
  conflicting evidence (an example is the theory of
  Boserup about population pressure facilitating
  technological change)
• Theories may be true (valid) in certain
  circumstances

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Relativist position

• Every interpretation attempts to attain clarity
  and certainty, but no matter how clear an
  interpretation as such appears, it cannot on this
  account claim to be the causally valid
  interpretation. On this level it must remain only
  a peculiarly plausible hypothesis (Weber)

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The role of theory

• It offers a perspective (a theoretical lens) on
  social worlds which involves categories and
  certain ontological assumptions
• Which may be used for offering explanation using
  certain research methods and causal schemes
• It facilitates communication between researchers
  using the same theory and even between those that
  alternative theories

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Social science questions and the answers to them

• Why is the Netherlands more rich than India is?
  Is it because of natural resource endowments,
  religion, culture, or because of all things
  together, including contingencies the importance
  of which cannot be determined in a definitive way
• Why did the plain crash? Because of the weather
  conditions, the engine being faulty, the pilot
  doing faulty things did the engine not work
  properly because of bad design or because of bad
  servicing who is to blame for bad servicing, the
  person doing the servicing or the procedures why
  were the procedures inappropriate, is it because
  the issue was not given proper attention by the
  company, something made possible by the lack of
  inspection by the government (why was that?)

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Causal variables within different social science
approaches of innovation
Actor network Actors, artifacts and alignment (3-As)
Regime approaches Rules, roles, regulations, and routines (4-Rs)
Social constructivism Social actors, social meaning, sociotechnical closure (3 Ss)
Political science Policy science Ideology, interests and influence (power) (3 Is) Problems, policy belief systems, policies programmes, and politics (4 Ps)
Economics Incentives and choice
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Intentionalist and monocausal explanations are
inappropriate for system innovation and societal
change The interplay of factors is important
(cause-effect chains)We may not have the 2nd
world war without Hitler but as an explanation
this is poor and teaches no lessons
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Quantitative versus qualitative methods

• Quantitative approaches relying on statistical
  significance
• Qualitative approaches relying on interpretative
  understanding (verstehen) narrative method
  (story telling)

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Source Spicer (2004)
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Synergies

• Quantitative methods may help to test whether
  certain findings apply wider
• Qualitative research may help to interpret odd
  findings of quantitative research or qualify the
  findings
• Qualitative research may generate hypotheses
• The robustness of quantitative findings can be
  assessed
• When it comes to policy advice, contextual
  aspects may be considered without getting
  bewildered by sheer complexity

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Source Spicer (2004)
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Phronesis

• Aristotle distinguishes between two intellectual
  virtues sophia and phronesis. Sophia (usually
  translated "wisdom") is the ability to think well
  about the nature of the world, and is used in our
  attempts to discover why the world is the way it
  is (this is sometimes equated with science)
  sophia involves deliberation concerning universal
  truths
• Phronesis is the ability to think about how and
  why we should act in order to change things, and
  especially to change our lives for the better
• Phronesis is about practical wisdom/judgement
  routed in experience

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• Phronesis is concerned with particulars, because
  it is concerned with how to act in particular
  situations. One can learn the principles of
  action, but applying them in the real world, in
  situations which one could not have foreseen,
  requires experience of the world
• The importance of phronesis to contemporary
  thought has been spelled out by Bent Flyvbjerg in
  his book Making Social Science Matter Why Social
  Inquiry Fails and How it Can Succeed Again
  Flyvbjerg argues that instead of trying to
  emulate the natural sciences, social science
  should be practiced as phronesis

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• Phronetic social science focuses on four
  value-rational questions, which are answered for
  specific cases of social action (1) Where are we
  going? (2) Who gains and who loses, by which
  mechanisms of power? (3) Is this development
  desirable? (4) What should we do about it?

Flyvbjerg (2001)
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Detached analysis or engagement with practioners?

• Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are
  useful George E.P. Box
• Abstract analysis of institutional arrangements
  that would be optimal in idealized situations
  is at best a useful heuristic for the main work,
  and at worst a diversion from it Nelson and
  Winter (1982)

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Schumpeter on method

• What distinguishes the 'scientific' economist
  from all the other people who think, talk, and
  write about economic topics is a command of
  techniques that we class under three heads
  history, statistics, and 'theory'. The three
  together make up what we shall call Economic
  Analysis. Of these three fundamental fields,
  economic history -- which issues into and
  includes present day facts -- is by far the most
  important. I wish to state right now that if,
  starting my work in economics afresh, I were told
  that I could study only one of the three but have
  my choice, it would economic history that I would
  choose. And this on three grounds. (1) First
  the subject matter of economics is essentially a
  unique process in historic time. Nobody can hope
  to understand the economic phenomena of any
  epoch, who has not an adequate command of
  historical facts and an adequate amount of
  historical sense ()
• (2) Second, the historical report cannot be
  purely economic but must inevitably reflect also
  'institutional' facts that are not purely
  economic ()
• (3) Third, it is, I believe, the fact that most
  of the fundamental errors currently committed in
  economic analysis are due to a lack of historical
  experience more often than to any other
  shortcoming of the economist's equipment.

Schumpeter in History of Economic Analysis
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Pointers about PhD research

• Why do you want to do this research? (is it
  really what you want to be working on for 3
  years, does it fit with your research
  capability?)
• What do you expect to find?
• What framework (theoretical lens) do you use (and
  why do you use this)
• What other frameworks are there? Is your
  framework better or simply more convenient for
  you?

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Pointers -- continued

• The problem definition should be as specific as
  possible
• Engage in multi-method analysis (or make use of
  the findings of others)
• case studies are useful in their own right but
  also help to generate hypotheses and interpret
  research findings obtained with different
  methods they may be used for analytical
  generalisation
• Econometric studies allow for statistical
  generalisation
• Models are rigorous

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On interpretation

1. Determine the mileage of different explanations
   (can it be explained in power terms, knowledge
   terms, in terms of economic variables?
2. Determine the robustness of your results
3. Acknowledge inconsistencies (instead of hiding
   them)

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Presenting your results

• What have you learned?
• Did you find what you expected to find?
• How do your results compare to those of the
  literature?
• Are the others wrong? How solid are your results?
• What is your original contribution? This should
  be clearly and explicitly stated