Vision 2020

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Vision 20/20

• A longer-term view to guide the present
• Paul Roberts Simon Lardner
• July 2005

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Content

• Overview
• Why, how, who, and what
• View over the horizon
• So what - regulatory challenges
• Key messages

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The only way to predict the future is to build
it
Prof Alan Kay UCLA
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V2020 a way to

• See inter-relatedness of things
• Deal with complexity
• constant state of flux and change
• See present reality more clearly
• challenge current assumptions
• take effective and relevant action

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V2020 parameters

• Communications IT, broadcasting, telecom,
  radiocommunications
• Regulation in the sense of rules and guidelines
• Government
• Industry
• User
• Working Group on Internet Governance
• govt/private sector/civil society respective
  roles
• All have a role in shaping the future

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View over the horizon

• Five scenarios
• Emerging dynamics
• Tensions

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Sensitive New Age Future

• Global, seamless connectivity
• Wireless dominates
• Global, dynamic society
• Self-responsibility paramount
• Empowered consumer

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Big Daddy

• Convergent
• Easy to use and interoperable
• Subscription-based personalised
• Domination by big players
• Citizens monitored by government
• Government-issued identifier
• Access is a right

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Nano-boomers

• Fragmented
• Poor service delivery
• Virtual identities
• Central role for government
• Right to opt in or opt out

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Marching together into the Future

• Communications a key priority
• Highly cooperative
• Alliances and partnerships
• Self interest aligned with greater good for all
• Near ubiquitous broadband access
• High pace of change
• High trust in the system
• Consumer protection vulnerabilities

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Green prison

• Geo-political instability
• Lack of trust
• Crisis of confidence
• Power concentrated
• RFID monitoring
• Personal ID
• Large global companies
• Rapid change, fragmented
• Regs cannot keep up

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Joined-up Cooperation
Decentralised
Centralised Power Influence
Fragmented
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Emerging dynamics 1/2

• Dealing with complexity
• new participants, new elements, multi-layered,
  dynamic, emergent
• convergent voice, multimedia, information
• global connectivity
• global inter-dependence global governance
• Intelligence at the edge

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Emerging dynamics 2/2

• Distributed
• Flexible use of spectrum
• Interdependent networks
• P2P, personalisation, rich layers of information,
  ease of creating and distributing content
  translates to consumer power
• Discrete solutions - illusion of being in
  control need systems thinking
• Emerging cultures, business models

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Emerging Tensions
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Forms of regulation

• Legacy

• Future

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Summary

• See the present reality more clearly
• Get your head around it by
• five scenarios or mixture of them
• emerging dynamics
• tensions moving from old to new
• New forms of regulation

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How to get your 10 of value?
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Key Lessons

• Economists dont get it
• Engineers missed the point
• Sociologists were right all the time

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The utopia Internet Everywhere
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Pre-conditions 1/2

• Technology
• Multiple IP networks, seamless handover
• Open platform interface systems integration
• P2P
• Flexible use of RF
• Markets
• Global reach, niche markets
• Network integrators, service aggregators
• Partnerships and alliances

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Pre-conditions 2/2

• Users
• Simplicity of use
• Trust and confidence
• Participation
• Personalisation
• Rules and guidelines
• Open standards
• Agreed frameworks
• Coherent, globalised harmonised rules

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So what?

• Practically none of these preconditions exist !

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Issues with Economics

• Economists have difficulty in understanding
  cooperation
• BUT
• Communications is all about networks
• Change typically happens via revolution not
  evolution
• Much of the communications platform is a
  commons
• Internet is becoming critical infrastructure
• User trust is important

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Issues with Engineering

• Trend for technology is to take the lead in
  developing solutions
• BUT
• Making technology work is the simple part
• System design implementation is not about
  technology but process
• The hard questions going forward are not technical

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Sociologists

• Actually the soft things about systems is what
  makes them hard to successfully implement
• Understanding the different philosophical
  viewpoints is critical
• Success will be determined by cooperation
• Timing, politics luck are also critical

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Network integrity not default design
Sep. focus by Gov. depts on issues
Network integrity built in.
Government not involved
ITU, CCITT, ANSI, ETSI
IETF, defacto vendor standards
PCs
Internet
PSTN

I.T. World
Telecom World
The clash of cultures
Resistant to governments
Work with governments
No regulation of devices
Regulation of devices
No national boundaries
National focus with global co-op
Best effort reliability
5 nine uptime
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No problem can be solved from the consciousness
that created it
Albert Einstein
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Case studySPAMNot nearly as boring as it
sounds!
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Characteristics why so hard?

• Crosses international boundaries
• Technology could solve the problem overnight
• Multiple parties involved
• Real-time enforcement mechanisms required
• Different legislative approaches definitions
• Internet is effectively an economic commons
• Dumb network, smart ends
• Profiteering possible
• Challenges in cooperation

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Apparent solutions to spamNo single silver
bullet

• Effective legislation
• International cooperation
• Operationally politically
• Viral regulation
• End user education cooperation
• Technology
• Industry cooperation (ISPs, vendors, etc)

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Key messages

• If you want a future of ubiquitous
  communication
• The existing Internet cannot support it
• Utopic vision appears to be just that
• Different types of regulation/cooperation
  required
• Need to focus on non-technical aspects
• Remember - communications is built around
  networks
• Focus globally not nationally
• We are sitting on a knife edge
• The emperor has no clothes!

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What you should do going forward

• Consider all forms of regulation (individual,
  interest groups, etc)
• Engage with regulation as a strategic necessity
  not an unfortunate burden
• Focus on human not technical networks
• Not everyone has same philosophical paradigm
• Understand game theory (trust reciprocity)
• Plan for the best, be aware of the worst

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Questions?
Websitehttp//vision2020.acma.gov.auContact
detailsAustralian Communications Media
Authority paul.roberts_at_acma.gov.ausimon.lardner_at_
acma.gov.au