The scrubbers outcome

1
The scrubbers outcome

• Clean Air Act of 1977 in effect mandated
  scrubbers
• delegated the decision to EPA which, given the
  constraints, had little or no choice
• Short-term consequences
• dirtier air in the East
• cleaner air in the West
• higher electricity costs
• Longer-term consequences
• scrubber technology improved, but...
• overall effectiveness still questioned
• SO2 and particulates removed. With latter also
  go alkalines. Net effects unclear
• Tradable permits regulatory mechanism of choice
  now, with reservationsobjections distribution

2
Two theories of government decision-making
Preferences (interests)
Policy (any constraints on economic or social
activity)
GOVERNMENT
Public policy perspective
Structured pluralism perspective
later
The scrubbers case suggests that decision-making
within the black box is driven at least as much
by input-side, constituency-specific distributive
concerns as by output-side, nation-as-a-whole
efficiency concerns.
3
Approximation of public policy perspective
Low cost
Low cost
Expected consequences of new policies
technological constraint
Existing plants
Old plants on average
LSC
Scrubbers
Clean air
Clean air
NSPS
NSPS
The present (approximately)
The future (approximately)
4
Progress report

• What determines whether interests will become
  active on a given issue?
• interest group analysis
• Wilson/Lowi nature of politics
• The PD / collective action problem (p gt c/b)
• The interest group spreadsheet
• What determines whether and how policy will
  change?
• collective choice analysis within institutions
• voting theory
• What determines whether activity will have an
  impact?
• knowledge about political actors concerns
• strategies for conveying information and other
  valued resources

5
Distinctions that have emerged

• Efficiency
• aggregate welfare
• Public policy analysis
• What is in the public interest?
• Normative analysis
• What ought to be?

• Distribution
• who gets what?
• Interest group analysis
• Who wins among competing private interests?
• Positive analysis
• What is?