GOVT 312: Parties and Campaigns

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GOVT 312 Parties and Campaigns

• Lecture 6 Partisanship

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Three Aspects of Parties

• Organization how parties organize as an entity
  unto themselves
• Electorate parties and voters
• Government how parties organize in government,
  especially the legislature

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Partisan Identification

• Measurement
• Individual Self-identification on a scale
• Strong Dem
• Weak Dem
• Ind. Lean Dem
• Ind.
• Ind. Lean Rep
• Weak Rep
• Strong Rep
• Aggregate Vote totals for partisan candidates,
  especially president and Congress

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Stability of Partisanship

• Early studies of partisanship showed great
  stability in partisanship in the aggregate.
• Surveys show close to the same percentage of
  people identifying themselves as Democrats,
  Republicans, or Independents over time (H p.
  105).
• Panel surveys (surveys that re-interview the same
  people) show movement among individuals between
  partisanship categories that tend to cancel out
  in the aggregate. 1/3rd of people change their
  party ID!

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Where do we learn Partisanship?

• Primary Groups family, friends, co-workers
• Secondary Groups church, school, organizations

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Cross-Pressurization

• Children whose parents are from both parties tend
  to be of that party. When parents are from
  different parties, children are more likely to be
  independents
• Same holds true for friends, co-workers, and
  membership in groups
• People seek out other people who think like
  themselves.
• College is an critical time in the development of
  partisanship, as it is a situation that brings
  people of different backgrounds together.

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Partisanship and Events

• Partisanship can also change in response to
  important events, such as the Civil Rights
  movement, the Great Depression, the Civil War,
  etc. These are called realignments and will be
  discussed in future classes.

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Partisanship A Perceptual Screenhttp//people-pr
ess.org/reports/display.php3?ReportID323
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Partisanship A Projection or a Running Tally

• Projection When partisanship is the only thing
  known about a candidate, people project their
  positive or negative views about a candidates
  partisanship onto the candidate.
• They also do this for other characteristics, such
  as gender, race, etc.
• A Running Tally When a party does good things, a
  person evaluates a party more favorably. Bad
  things leads to a negative retrospective
  evaluation.

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Partisanship and Issues

• Parties hold different opinions on policy issues
  affecting the country, yet people can be at odds
  with their party on some issues.

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Partisan Change in the Aggregate

• From 1952-2000 (H p.105)
• Decline in the number of people who identify as
  Democrats
• Increase in the number who identify as
  Independents (are Independents truly
  independent?)
• Among independents, increase in number who lean
  towards the two parties.
• Republicans have remained constant

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Recent Partisan Trendshttp//people-press.org/rep
orts/display.php3?ReportID312
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The Death of Parties? (p.106)

• People who study parties began to write about the
  demise of political parties in the 1970s and
  1980s.
• Declines occurred between 1952-1972. In the
  1990s, a resurgence of partisanship.
• Much of the national trend is a consequence of
  the changing nature of the South.
• Include independent leaners, no change

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Party Loyalty (President, p.109)

• Republicans tend to be more loyal
• Strong identifiers are the most loyal
• Independent leaners are more loyal than weak
  partisans (are leaners really independent?)
• 1952-1972 Decrease in party loyalty
• 1990s Increase in party loyalty. Partisans more
  loyal now than in the 1950s.

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Partisanship and Polarization in the 2004 Election

• Define Polarization
• Kimball and Gross polarization has come from
  higher socio-economic persons, who are
  knowledgeable and involved in politics

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Youth and Polarization (p.276)
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The Dirty Secret of American Politics

• Strong Partisans are the most informed, most
  likely to vote, most likely to vote for their
  partys candidates.
• Independents (particularly true independents) and
  Weak Partisans are least informed, least likely
  to vote, but because they are most likely to vote
  for either party

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The Dirty Secret of American Politics

• the least informed people determine the outcome
  of close elections!