Presidential Elections-2004 in Ukraine: Sociological Dimensions

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Presidential Elections-2004 in Ukraine
Sociological Dimensions
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• Valeriy N. Nikolayevskiy
• Professor of Sociology, Dean of School of
  Sociology at Kharkiv National University named
  after V.N. Karazin, Kharkiv, Ukraine
• Director, East Ukrainian Foundation for Social
  Research, Kharkiv, Ukraine

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THE ELECTIONS OF PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE-2004.
REPEATED VOTING. DECEMBER 26, 2004
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THE ELECTIONS OF PRESIDENT OF UKRAINE-2004.
REPEATED VOTING. DECEMBER 26, 2004
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DATA BASE

• About socio-economic conditions of Ukraine
  Ukrainian State Committee of Statistics, Kiev,
  2004
• Transparency International Global Corruption
  Report 2004
• New Democracies Barometer 6, 2002
• Ukraine N 2.400
• Principal Investigator Christian W.Haerpfer
• (University of Vienna and Woodrow Wilson Center)
  
• Fieldwork (December 2001) East Ukrainian
  Foundation for Social Research,
• Kharkiv, National Co-leader Valeriy
  Nikolayevskiy.
• Ukrainian Society 1994-2004 Social Monitoring.
  Kyiv, 2004
• Eleven nationwide surveys
• Principal investigator V. Vorona
• (Institute of Sociology, National Academy of
  Sciences of Ukraine, Foundation
• "Democracy Initiatives")
• Fieldwork Center for Social and Political
  research Socis.

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FACTORS OF COUNTERACTION AND ASSICTENCE FOR
ORANGE REVOLUTION
Positive changes in socio-economic conditions of state Traditionalism of Ukrainian citizens mentality Patience of Ukrainian citizens Very low level of trust for authorities (President, Ukrainian Parliament, government, courts etc.) The way of authorities functioning Political situation and its perception by citizens High level of dissatisfaction in different spheres of social life The way of Presidential elections campaign
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION IN UKRAINE BEFORE THE
ORANGE REVOLUTION

• Since the 2000 experts mark the prompt growth and
  hitherto unknown macroeconomic stability. By the
  end of 2003 officially registered GDP was in 30
  higher than in 1997. In this period the growth in
  sphere of industrial production (on 56) were
  marked.
• Positive tendency in dynamics of monthly
  salaries, average amount of pensions, stipends
  for higher school students.
• Positive tendency in population money income.
• Reduction of unemployment level.
• According to experts estimates 45-60 of
  Ukrainian economy is at "shadow".
• Transparency International Index of Corruption
  Perception in Ukraine in 2004 was 2.2

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RATES OF GDPS GROWTH,
Source About socio-economic conditions of
Ukraine Ukrainian State Committee of
Statistics, Kiev, 2004
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DYNAMICS OF MONTHLY SALARY 20032004 (UAH)
Subsistence level in 2003 has been 363 UAH
(56), in 2004 - 382,7 UAH (59) Source About
socio-economic conditions of Ukraine Ukrainian
State Committee of Statistics, Kiev, 2004
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DYNAMICS OF AVERAGE AMOUNT OF PENSION (in UAH)
Subsistence level in 2003 has been 363 UAH
(56), in 2004 - 382,7 UAH (59) Source About
socio-economic conditions of Ukraine Ukrainian
State Committee of Statistics, Kiev, 2004
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DYNAMICS OF STIPENDS FOR HIGHER SCHOOL STUDENTS,
UAH
Subsistence level in 2003 has been 363 UAH
(56), in 2004 - 382,7 UAH (59) Source
Ministry of Education and Science of Ukraine
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POPULATION MONEY INCOME
Source Statistical Yearbook of Ukraine for
1998-2004
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DYNAMICS OF UNEMPLOYMENT LEVEL,
Source State Committee for Statistics of Ukraine
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WITH WHICH OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU MOST CLOSELY
IDENTIFY YOURSELF?,
All alternatives Don't know, European
(Eurasian), Soviet Citizen, Citizen of
country, Regional citizen, Local / city /
settlement / village, Others Source New
Democracies Barometer 6, 2002
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WHAT IS THE LEVEL OF YOUR TRUST TO THE
PRESIDENT?,
Alternative dont trust is the sum of
alternatives Absolutely dont trust and Mostly
dont trust, alternative trust is the sum of
alternatives Absolutely trust and Mostly
trust. Alternative difficult to say is not
presented Source Ukrainian Society 1994-2004
Social Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004
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WHAT IS THE LEVEL OF YOUR TRUST TO THE UKRAINIAN
PARLIAMENT?,

• Alternative dont trust is the sum of
  alternatives Absolutely dont trust and Mostly
  dont trust, alternative trust is the sum of
  alternatives Absolutely trust and Mostly
  trust. Alternative difficult to say is not
  presented
• Source Ukrainian Society 1994-2004 Social
  Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004

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WHAT IS THE LEVEL OF YOUR TRUST TO THE
GOVERNMENT?,
Alternative dont trust is the sum of
alternatives Absolutely dont trust and Mostly
dont trust, alternative trust is the sum of
alternatives Absolutely trust and Mostly
trust. Alternative difficult to say is not
presented Source Ukrainian Society 1994-2004
Social Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004
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WHAT IS THE LEVEL OF YOUR TRUST TO THE COURTS?
Alternative dont trust is the sum of
alternatives Absolutely dont trust and Mostly
dont trust, alternative trust is the sum of
alternatives Absolutely trust and Mostly
trust. Alternative difficult to say is not
presented Source Ukrainian Society 1994-2004
Social Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004
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IN WHAT WAY THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE IN THE
FOLLOWING SPHERES HAS BEEN CHANGED DURING L.
KUCHMA'S PRESIDENCY?,
Source Ukraine, 2004 Presidential Elections in
Public Opinion, October, 2004
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DYNAMICS OF TRANSPARENCY INTERNATIONAL INDEX OF
CORRUPTION PERCEPTION IN UKRAINE
Index demonstrates perception of corruption by
businessmen and analytics, it varies from 0 till
10, where 10 corruption is practically absent,
0 absolute corruption Source Transparency
International Global Corruption Report, 2004
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HOW MUCH ARE YOU SATISFIED BY THE WAY THE
GOVERNMENT PERFORMS ITS DUTIES?,
All alternatives Don't know, Definitely
satisfied, Quite satisfied, Rather
dissatisfied, Definitely dissatisfied Source
New Democracies Barometer 6, 2002
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IF UKRAINIAN GOVERNMENT WOULD APPROVE THE
DECISION WHICH RESTRAINS YOUR INTERESTS AND
RIGHTS, WOULD YOU BE ABLE TO DO SOMETHING AGAINST
THIS DECISION?,
All alternatives No, Yes, I would be able,
Difficult to say Source Ukrainian Society
1994-2004 Social Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004
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IF MEETINGS,DEMONSTRATIONS OF PROTEST WILL TAKE
PLACE IN YOUR TOWN/VILLAGE, WILL YOU TAKE PART?,
Source Ukrainian Society 1994-2004 Social
Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004
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WHAT IS BETTER, FOR YOU OPINION, TO BEAR
DIFFERENT KINDS OF FINANCIAL DIFFUCULTIES IN
FAVOUR OF PEACE, TRANQUILITY AND ORDER IN THE
STATE OR PROTEST?,
Source Ukrainian Society 1994-2004 Social
Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004
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WHAT IS YOUR COMPLETE EVALUATION OF POLITICAL
SITUATION IN UKRAINE?,


Source Ukrainian Society 1994-2004 Social
Monitoring. Kyiv, 2004
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IN YOUR OPINION, HOW ACTIVE "DIRTY" TECHNOLOGIES
WILL BE USED IN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS?,
Source Ukraine, 2004 Presidential Elections in
Public Opinion, May-June, 2004
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IN FAVOR OF WHICH CANDIDATE THE RESULTS OF
ELECTIONS WILL BE FORGED?,
Source Ukraine, 2004 Presidential Elections in
Public Opinion, September, 2004
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HOW MUCH, FOR YOUR OPINION, THE RESULTS OF THE
2ND ROUND, ANNOUNCED BY CENTRAL ELECTORAL
COMMITTEE, REFLECT THE VOTERS' DECISION?,
Source Ukraine, 2004 Presidential Elections in
Public Opinion, November, 2004
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WHAT DO YOU THINK THE RAISING OF SALARIES, SOCIAL
PAYMENTS, PENSIONS INITIATED BY GOVERNMENT IS,
Source Ukraine, 2004 Presidential Elections in
Public Opinion, November, 2004
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WHAT KIND OF PROBLEMS NEEDS IMMEDIATE AND URGENT
DECISION?,
Source Ukraine, 2004 Presidential Elections in
Public Opinion, October, 2004
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PLEASE EVALUATE THE LEVEL OF THE MATERIAL LIVING
CONDITIONS OF YOUR FAMILY?,
All alternatives Difficult to answer, The
money is not enough even for our nutrition,
The money is just enough for food and clothes
It is enough to buy TV, fridge, but not enough
for car/flat, We can purchase expensive
goods (car, flat ) Source New Democracies
Barometer 6, 2002
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HOW WOULD YOU DESCRIBE THE ECONOMIC SITUATION OF
YOUR FAMILY THIS YEAR?,
All alternatives Don't know, Very
good, Good Average, Bad, Very
bad Source New Democracies Barometer 6, 2002
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HOW HAVE YOUR HOUSEHOLD'S ECONOMIC SITUATION
CHANGED DURING THE PAST TEN YEARS?,
All alternatives Don't know, Definitely
improved, Quite improved, Stayed without
changes, Rather worsened, Definitely
worsened Source New Democracies Barometer 6,
2002
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DO YOU WORRY ABOUT BEING ROBBED ON THE STREET?,
All alternatives Don't know, Not worried
at all, Quite not worried, Rather
worried, Worried Source New Democracies
Barometer 6, 2002
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HOW MUCH ARE YOU SATISFIED BY DEMOCRACY
DEVELOPING IN OUR COUNTRY?,
All alternatives Don't know, Definitely
satisfied, Quite satisfied, Rather
dissatisfied, Definitely dissatisfied Sourc
e New Democracies Barometer 6, 2002
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HOW MUCH ARE YOU SATISFIED BY THE "SOCIAL
SECURITY SYSTEM" (HEALTH INSURANCE, UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE AND THE PENSION INSURANCE FUND)?,
All alternatives Don't know, Definitely
satisfied, Quite satisfied, Rather
dissatisfied, Definitely dissatisfied Sourc
e New Democracies Barometer 6, 2002