SWS Credibility

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title
The Social Weather Surveys Elections and Other
Matters Mahar Mangahas
Workshop on Polling on Voters Behavior,
Jakarta, Indonesia, 1-2 December 2008 Organized
by Friedrich Naumann Foundation, in cooperation
with Lembaga Survei Indonesia
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THE SWS MISSION IS TO GENERATE DATA --? to
help eyes to see -- Education? to cause hearts
to feel -- Conscientization? to help minds to
understand -- Analysis
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QOL books
(Two decades of Social Weather Reporting in the
Philippines, by Mahar Mangahas and Linda Luz B.
Guerrero, pages 23-36.)
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In the current economic crisis, the SWS Economic
Indicators like Self-Rated Poverty, Food-Poverty,
Hunger, and Trends in the Quality of Life and the
Economy are demonstrating how the GNP and other
National Income Accounts fail to measure the true
economic well-being of the Filipino people.
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Chart SELF-RATED POVERTY HOUSEHOLDS WHO ARE
MAHIRAP
SWS SURVEYS POVERTY QUARTERLY, WHEREAS OFFICIAL
MEASUREMENT IS EVERY 3 YEARS PHILIPPINES,
1983-2008
MARCOS AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO
Self-Rated Poverty
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of households
Official (NSCB) Poverty Incidence
Self-Rated Poverty Question Where would you
place your family in this card? (Not poor, On
the line, Poor) Note The NSCB figures, which
compare income of the year to the official
poverty line, are plotted in June of the year.
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BW July 31, 2008 Number of poor families rising
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EXPECTED CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE IN NEXT 12
MONTHS
EXPECTED CHANGE IN QUALITY OF LIFE IN THE NEXT
12 MONTHS, PHILIPPINES, 1984-2008
MARCOS AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO
Question. In your opinion, what will be the
quality of your life in the coming 12 months?
Would you say that it ... (Will be better, Same,
Will be worse) Optimists "Will be better
Pessimists "Will be worse" (qoln.ch3)
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BW, August 11, 2008, Pinoys pessimism mounting
1
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At the same time, public satisfaction with
governance has fallen to record lows.
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NET SATISFACTION RATINGS OF PRESIDENTS
NET SATISFACTION RATINGS OF PRESIDENTS
PHILIPPINES, MAY 1986 TO SEP 2008
AQUINO RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO
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Net ratings Satisfied minus Dissatisfied
correctly rounded. Survey Data Social Weather
Stations surveys.
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Inquirer July 19, 2008 Most unpopular leader
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SWS partnership with BusinessWorld (BW)
On 17 July 2008, BW renewed its first-publication
rights to the SWS Indicators of Governance and
the Economy for four quarters, starting with the
Second Quarter 2008 Social Weather Survey.
L-R BW COO Anthony Cuaycong, SWS President Mahar
Mangahas, BW Chairman of the Board Vergel Santos,
SWS Fellow Deputy Director Gerardo Sandoval,
SWS Survey Research Comm. Specialist Leo
Laroza, and BW Executive Editor Arnold Belleza.
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Each quarter, BW has right of first publication
of SWS media releases on the following --
1. Public satisfaction with the President 2.
Public satisfaction with Top Officials and
Institutions 3. Public satisfaction with the
National Administration 4. Public confidence in
Quality of Life and the Economy 5. Involuntary
hunger among families 6. General poverty and food
poverty of families
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and on two other topics, such as Elections
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Crime Victimization
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Household spending...
Household spending...
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and Satisfaction with How Democracy Works.
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Asia barometer book
(Mass public perceptions of democratization in
the Philippines, by Linda Luz Guerrero and
Rollin F. Tusalem, pages 61-82.)
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encyclopedia
(Public opinion polling in the Philippines, by
Linda Luz B. Guerrero and Mahar Mangahas, pages
689-696.)
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Freedom to publish
Freedom of speech, which is essential to a
democratic society, includes the freedom to
conduct and publish opinion polls.
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1998 elections book
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SWS SURVEYS ON THE 1998 PRESIDENTIAL RACE(May
11, 1998 election day)
Note Excludes Dumlao and Morato
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Presidential Votes DAY-OF-ELECTION SURVEY vs.
OFFICIAL COUNTPhilippines, May 11, 1998
VOTES FOR PRESIDENT SWS DAY-OF-ELECTION SURVEY
VS. COMMISSION ON ELECTIONS COUNT, PHILIPPINES,
MAY 11, 1998
39.9
Estrada
COMELEC Count
39.2
15.9
de Venecia
16.4
As of 27 May 1998 basis of official
proclamation on 28 May 1998
13.8
Roco
13.5
12.4
Osmeña
12.2
SWS Exit Poll
8.7
Lim
9.2
Sample Size 5,538 voters, interviewed in
their homes on election day after having come
back from voting. Error Margin 1.3 for survey
leader excludes Imelda Marcos who withdrew yet
got a few votes.
4.9
de Villa
4.8
3
Santiago
3.1
1.3
Enrile
1.4
0.1
Dumlao
0.2
0.1
Morato
0
0 10 20 30 40 50
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SWS MAY 2007 PRE-ELECTION SURVEY vs. OFFICIAL MAY
14, 2007 ELECTION RESULTS FOR SENATORS
SWS MAY 2-4, 2007 SURVEY vs. COMELEC MAY 14,
2007 RANKS FOR SENATORS 97.1
LOZANO
11 OUT OF 12 WINNERS
RECTO
PIMENTEL
ZUBIRI
TRILLANES
ARROYO
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COMMAND VOTING, March 1998-Feb 2007
PERCEPTIONS OF COMMAND VOTING PHILIPPINES,
1998-2007
People here are told for whom to vote
11
15
16
19
19
20
People here decide for themselves for whom to
vote
89
85
84
81
80
79
Apr
26
Test Statement In an Election, it is not bad to
accept money provided one votes according to
ones conscience. February 1992 February 2007
In an election, it is not bad to accept money,
if one votes according to ones conscience.
PHILIPPINES, 19922007
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Disagree
36
32
36
39
37
39
41
40
25
14
16
16
10
12
17
10
Undecided
24
12
Agree
58
53
50
50
49
48
45
45
39
49
Apr
Feb
Apr
Feb
Apr
Jan
Feb
Feb
Apr
Mar

















1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1999
2000
2002
2003
2005
2006
1992
1998
2001
2004
2007
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EXPECTATION OF VOTING IRREGULARITIES IN THE 1992,
2001, 2004 AND 2007 ELECTIONS
EXPECTATIONS OF VOTING IRREGULARITIES JUST PRIOR
TO MAY ELECTIONS PHILIPPINES, 1992-2007
69
69
57
53
53
49
48
48
46
46
41
39
39
36
36
30
29
27
22
17
APR 2007
APR 1992
APR 2001
APR 2004
FEB 2007
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THE SWS SURVEY DATA LIBRARY
Data Sets Respondents Items
1984-2000 196 205,546 25,682 2001 30 29,518 2,64
3 2002 10 10,940 1,337 2003 14 11,531 1,512 20
04 23 26,473 1,943 2005 9 10,800 1,115 2006 18 1
5,691 1,925 2007 20 18,508 1,715 2008
(July) 11 11,650 1,584 TOTAL 337 346,001 40,155
151 National Surveys, 186 Subnational
Surveys Excludes standard background variables
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Awareness of SWS, RP
PUBLIC AWARENESS OF SWS Philippines, 1992-2007
RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO
60
AWARE 40
40
20
0
1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Q155. Before this interview, did you ever read or
hear about Social Weather Stations (SWS), that
does surveys of the citizens opinions, or not?
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Credibility of SWS, RP
PUBLIC CREDIBILITY OF SWS, PHILIPPINES,
1992-2007 (Base Total aware of SWS surveys)
RAMOS ESTRADA ARROYO
Credible 81
80
Net 76
60
40
20
Not Credible 5
0
1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

NOTE Credible Very/Somewhat Credible Not
Credible Somewhat Not/Not At All Credible
Net credible Credible minus Not Credible,
correctly rounded. Q155. IF AWARE What do you
think of the surveys done by SWS? Are they ...
(SHOWCARD)? VERY CREDIBLE, SOMEWHAT CREDIBLE,
UNDECIDED IF CREDIBLE OR NOT, SOMEWHAT NOT
CREDIBLE, or NOT AT ALL CREDIBLE?
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The SWS approach

• Focus on highly relevant matters
• Design surveys for fast replication
• Disseminate research findings widely
• Archive public releases on the website
• Archive raw survey data for public use
• Engage in election research as the continuing
  test of survey quality and public acceptability

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SWS Office
www.sws.org.ph
52 Malingap Street, Sikatuna Village, Quezon
City Tels 926-4308, 924-4456, 924-4458, 924-4465
E-mail sws_info_at_sws.org.ph