Overview of 2004 Election

1
Overview of 2004 Election
2
Numbers to Watch in 2004

• 1013
• 2
• 29
• 237
• 58.2

• 3,371,013
• 2,831,066
• 278
• 49
• 911

3
2
0
0
0

P
r
e
s
i
d
e
n
t
i
a
l

R
e
s
u
l
t

a
n
d

E
l
e
c
t
o
r
a
l

V
o
t
e

T
o
t
a
l
M
A
1
2
1
8
1
1
5
6
8
1
3
9
7
3
2
9
3
2
5
4
2
0
0
0

G
o
r
e

R
e
s
u
l
t

(
E
l
e
c
t
o
r
a
l

V
o
t
e
s
)
G
o
r
e

(
2
6
7

E
l
e
c
t
o
r
a
l

V
o
t
e
s
)
B
u
s
h

(
2
7
1

E
l
e
c
t
o
r
a
l

V
o
t
e
s
)
4
2000 Final Vote
Gore/Nader 3,371,013 over Bush
5
10 Closest States in 2000
6
2000 Election Electoral Vote Change 00/04
7
1996 Presidential Election Votes
49.2
40.7
8.4
8
1996 Clinton Job Approval
49.2
40.7
9
1996 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes
49.2
40.7
8.4
10
1984 Presidential Vote
58.8
40.5
11
1984 Reagan Job Approval
58.8
40.5
12
1984 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes
58.8
40.5
13
1992 Presidential Election Votes
42.9
37.1
18.8
14
1992 Bush Sr. Job Approval
42.9
37.1
18.8
15
1992 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes
42.9
37.1
18.8
16
1980 Presidential Vote
50.7
41
6.7
17
1980 Carter Job Approval
50.7
41
6.7
18
1980 Job Approval and Presidential Election Votes
50.7
41
6.7
19
Incumbent presidents job approval rating is the
single most accurate predicator of his final vote
20
2004 Presidential Vote
44
7
21
Bush Job Approval
49
48
22
Bush Right Track/Wrong Track
54
40
Source Democracy Corp
23
Carter, Reagan,Bush Sr., Clinton and Bush Jr. Job
Disapproval in Election Year
59
55
48
33
32
24
The Race to 270 Electoral Votes
2000 Bush states and new electoral vote total
after reapportionment. (7 EVs gained)
Source Cook Election Preview/National Review
25
The Race to 270 Electoral Votes
2000 Gore states and new electoral vote total
after reapportionment. (7 EVs lost)
Source Cook Election Preview/National Review
26
Battleground EVs After Reapportionment
Source Cook Election Preview/National Review
27
Economic Factors Influencing 2004 Election
Gray indicates states performing better than
national average
Source Economy.com/NY Times
28
Gray indicates states performing better than
national average
Source Economy.com/NY Times
29
Important Dates in 2004
30
Phases of the Campaign

• Phase 1 Defining the Race
• (present July)
• Phase 2 Conventions/Olympics
• - Democratic Convention
• - Olympics
• - Republican Convention
• Phase 3 General Election
• - September
• Phase 4 Debates
• - 9/30 - 10/13
• Phase 5 End Game
• - 10/14 11/2

31
2000 Presidential Vote by Senate Seatand House
Districts
32
2
0
0
4

O
p
e
n

U
S

S
e
n
a
t
e

S
e
a
t
s
B
u
s
h

C
a
r
r
i
e
d

A
l
l

S
t
a
t
e
s

E
x
c
e
p
t

I
l
l
i
n
o
i
s
O
W
S
K
I

(
R
)
33
Numbers to Watch in 2004

• 3,371,013 Gore/Nader Plurality
• 2,831,066 Nader Raw Vote
• 278 - Bush Electoral Votes Now Based on 2000
  Results
• 49 - Bushs job approval
• 9/11
• 10/13 Final Debate
• 2 - Change in Real Household Income
• 29 Number of States Bush Carried
• 237 Number of Congressional Districts Bush
  Carried
• 58.2- Turnout percentage of voting age population
  in 2000

34
Overview of 2004 Election
This election is ours for the taking