Percent%20Hispanic%20of%20U.S.%20Population,%20%201960-2030

1
Redefining America Findings from the 2006
Latino National Survey Luis R. Fraga Stanford
University University of Washington John A.
Garcia University of Arizona Rodney E.
Hero University of Notre Dame Michael
Jones-Correa Cornell University Valerie
Martinez-Ebers Texas Christian University Gary
M. Segura University of Washington
2
(No Transcript)
3
Sources of Funding

• Annie E. Casey Foundation
• Carnegie Corporation
• Ford Foundation
• Hewlett Foundation
• Irvine Foundation
• Joyce Foundation
• Kellogg Foundation
• National Science Foundation
• Russell Sage Foundation
• Texas AM University MALRC, PERG

4
Latino National Survey

• A national telephone survey of 8600 Latino
  residents of the United States, seeking a broad
  understanding of the qualitative nature of Latino
  political and social life in America
• State-stratified samples that reach approximately
  90 coverage of the national Latino population
• Approximately 40 minutes (length and number of
  questions depends on split-samples, etc)
• English and Spanish
• Universe is all Latino adults, not citizens or
  voters

5
Themes within the Survey

• Survey includesmany of the questions or topics
  you have grown to love from existing surveys,
  whenever possible to ensure comparability
• Questions submitted by various political
  scientists specifically targeted at states
• Questions suggested by the advisory board
• Beyond the standard, we focused on
  transnationalism, identity, inter-group and
  intra-group relations, gender, education, policy
  preferences, discrimination, mobilization and
  overall political orientations
• Some questions specific to foreign born,
  non-citizens, registered voters, and residents of
  specific states

6
Stratified Structure

• The survey is stratified, that is, creates
  stand-alone samples in 15 states and the DC Metro
  area allowing us to speak to specific political
  contexts
• Arizona 400
• Arkansas 400
• California 1200
• Colorado 400
• DC-SMSA 400
• Florida 800
• Georgia 400
• Illinois 600
• Iowa 400
• Nevada 400
• New Jersey 400
• New Mexico 400
• New York 800
• North Carolina 400
• Texas 800
• Washington 400
• TOTAL 8600

7
California Sub-samples

• Bay Area Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa,
  San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano,
  Sonoma
• Los Angeles Metro Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura
• San Diego San Diego
• Central Valley Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera,
  Merced, San Joaquin, Stanislaus, Tulare
• Inland Empire Riverside (western), San
  Bernardino (southwestern)
• Other California Sacramento, rest of state

8
Percent Hispanic of U.S. Population, 1960-2030
Percent
Source Chapter 2. Multiple Origins, Uncertain
Destinies. Adapted from Figure 2-2.
9
Hispanic Births and Net Immigration by Decade
1960-2030
Millions
Source Chapter 2. Multiple Origins, Uncertain
Destinies. Adapted from Figure 2-1.
10
Source Population Projections Division, U.S.
Bureau of the Census, 2002
11
Source Population Projections, Department of
Finance, State of California, 2004
12
!
13
Population Growth Chart Comparisons
California
United States
14
Latino Diversity
44 million Latinos in the US
Census Bureau (American Community Survey,
Released August 2006) Mexican 63.9 Puerto
Rican 9 Cuban 3.5 Salvadoran
2.9 Dominican 2.7 Guatemalan
1.7 Colombian 1.8 ALL OTHERS
14.3 Native-born (not Island-born)
35.4 Foreign-born 61 Island-born PR 3.6 No
high school diploma 43 College graduate 11.1
Latino National Survey (unweighted N) Summer
2006 Mexican 66.1 (5704) Puerto Rican
9.5 (822) Cuban 4.9 (420) Salvadoran
4.7 (407) Dominican 3.9 (335) Guatemalan
1.7 (149) Colombian 1.6 (139) All
Others 7.6 Native-born 28.4
(2450) Foreign-born (adults) 66.2
(5717) Island-born PR 5.4 (467) No high
school diploma 37 College graduate 16.2
15
Country of Origin

• Nation California Bay LA San
  Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Mexico 68.6 84.4 78.7
  76.1 95.3 97.4 93.2 95.8
• El Salvador 4.3 8.2 9.6
  14.5 0.0 0.7 0.9
  0.7
• Guatemala 2.0 2.2 2.2
  3.2 1.2 0.7 1.7 0.7
  
• Other 24.2 5.2 9.5
  6.2 3.5 1.2 4.2
  2.8

16
Nativity

• Nation California Bay LA San
  Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Born
• U.S. 28.6 30.9 39.7
  26.4 25.9 34.4 43.2 29.6
• Born Outside
• U.S. 66.7 68.5 60.3
  73.4 72.9 65.6 54.2 69.0
• Naturalized 30.1 35.0 40.2
  36.2 30.6 25.3 46.9 30.6

17
Generational Status

• California Bay LA San
  Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Gen 1 69.2 60.7 73.6
  74.1 65.6 57.3 70.4
• Gen 2 12.8 14.8 12.1
  11.8 11.9 18.8 10.6
• Gen 3 9.3 15.5
  8.0 4.7 11.9 10.3
  7.8
• Gen 4 8.7 8.9
  6.3 9.4 10.6 13.7
  11.3

18
Assimilation, Values, and Identity
19
Language Preference

• Nation California Bay LA San
  Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• English 38.1 39.8 52.9
  32.0 32.9 37.8 59.3 43.0
• Spanish 61.8 60.2 47.1
  68.0 67.1 62.3 40.7 57.0
• Language chosen to complete the survey

20
Importance of Learning English

• Nation California Bay
  LA San Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Very
• Important 91.9 94.7 91.2
  94.6 92.9 94.0 91.5 95.1
• Somewhat
• Important 6.7 5.1 7.4
  4.2 4.7 6.0 6.8
  4.2
• Not Very
• Important 0.9 1.0 0.7
  1.1 2.4 0.0 1.7
  0.7
• Not At All
• Important 0.4 0.2 0.7
  0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
  0.0
• Question How important do you think it is that
  everyone in the United States Learn
• English?

21
Importance of Retaining Spanish

• Nation
  California Bay LA San Central
  Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Very
• Important 84.9 84.1 79.4
  85.5 82.4 86.1 83.1 82.4
• Somewhat
• Important 11.9 13.3 17.7
  11.7 16.5 12.6 13.6 14.1
• Not Very
• Important 1.9 1.7 0.7
  1.1 1.2 1.3 3.4 0.7
  
• Not At All
• Important 1.1 1.0 2.2
  0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8
• Question How important do you think it is for
  you and your family to maintain the ability
• to speak Spanish?

22
Language Proficiencyacross Generations
1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen
Answered in English 19.2 73.7 90.4 91.3
Answered in Spanish, Speak English 19.1 19.5 8.2 7.7
Total Share with English Proficiency 38.3 93.2 98.6 99.0
Retain Spanish Proficiency 99.2 91.6 68.7 60.5

• Strong English dominance and nearly universal
  English proficiency among the first-generation of
  US born
• Generally strong Spanish retention, aided by
  refreshed populations of Spanish-speakers.

23
Importance of Learning English/ Retaining
Spanish across Generations
1st Gen 2nd Gen 3rd Gen 4th Gen
How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English? How important do you think it is that everyone in the United States learn English?
Somewhat 5.2 8.6 11.8 11.6
Very 94.1 89.3 86.1 84.0
How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish? How important do you think it is for you or your family to maintain the ability to speak Spanish?
Somewhat 9.7 13.7 17.9 22.2
Very 88.6 84.4 73.0 66.7

24
Sense of American and Home-Country
IdentityAcross Generations
1st CA 1st CA 2nd CA 2nd CA 3rd CA 3rd CA 4th CA
How strongly do you think of yourself as American? How strongly do you think of yourself as American? How strongly do you think of yourself as American? How strongly do you think of yourself as American? How strongly do you think of yourself as American? How strongly do you think of yourself as American? How strongly do you think of yourself as American? How strongly do you think of yourself as American?
Somewhat Strongly Somewhat Strongly 28.7 27.0 25.1 21.4 25.1 21.4 25.1 21.4 15.2 24.3 16.3 8.8
Very Strongly Very Strongly 24.5 25.9 56.9 62.0 56.9 62.0 56.9 62.0 78.5 48.7 76.4 87.8
How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)? How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)? How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)? How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)? How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)? How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)? How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)? How strongly do you think of yourself as (Mexican, Cuban, etc)?
Somewhat Strongly Somewhat Strongly 19.6 21.2 19.6 21.2 22.2 19.6 22.2 19.6 26.1 28.7 34.3 34.3
Very Strongly Very Strongly 67.6 67.7 67.6 67.7 64.3 60.5 64.3 60.5 45.1 53.9 40.5 49.2

25
A Multiplicity of Identities

• Simultaneous strong sense of pan-ethnic identity,
  national origin identity, and American-ness
• Puerto Ricans illustrate best that identities are
  not mutually exclusive
• Cuban pan-ethnicity surprisingly high
• Mexican sense of American-ness high considering
  the share foreign born

American National Origin Pan-Ethnic
Mexican 61.7 84.0 87.4
Cuban 77.8 82.1 81.6
Puerto Rican 83.7 90.7 89.3
All 65.0 84.0 87.2
Cells are percent expressing somewhat or very strongly Cells are percent expressing somewhat or very strongly Cells are percent expressing somewhat or very strongly Cells are percent expressing somewhat or very strongly
26
Levels of Pan Ethnicity and ConnectednessOf
Ones Subgroup to Other Latinos

• One-half of LNS Latinos perceive a lot of
  commonalities with ones group and other Latinos
• Stronger pan-ethnic identifiers are more inclined
  to see this connection.
• Over three- fourths of the combined stronger
  pan-ethic identifiers see their own national
  origin group as having a similar fate with other
  Latinos

27
Selected Markers of Societal Assimilation
1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Roman Catholics 73.8 69.7 66.8 58.1
Social Capital (Group Participation) 14.1 25.0 29.4 33.4
Military Service, Self or Family 16.1 48.9 68.6 72.3
Education lt High School 49.7 22.9 17.6 16.2
Household income lt35k 53.4 34.9 29.2 33.4
Percent Marrying non-Latinos 13.3 32.2 42.6 53.3
28
Attention to US and Home Country Politics and
Public Affairs
1st 1st 1st 2nd 3rd 3rd 4th
Attention to/Interest in US politics Attention to/Interest in US politics Attention to/Interest in US politics Attention to/Interest in US politics Attention to/Interest in US politics Attention to/Interest in US politics Attention to/Interest in US politics Attention to/Interest in US politics
Somewhat or Very Interested Somewhat or Very Interested 60.0 73.9 73.9 79.2 79.2 81.3
Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics Attention to/Interest in Home-Country politics
Little or No Attention Paid Little or No Attention Paid 57.5 61.0 61.0 61.0 72.8 72.8

• Attention to US politics is strong, even among
  the foreign born, and approaches (and in some
  cases surpasses) levels for all other groups,
  among Latinos born in the US.
• While about 57 of foreign born respondents agree
  that they should be able to vote in home country
  elections, only about 4 have ever done so, and
  about 58 report paying little or no attention to
  politics back home.

29
Preferences for Cultural Assimilation and
Distinctness
1st CA 1st CA 2nd CA 2nd CA 3rd CA 4th CA
Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society Importance of Changing to Blend into Larger Society
Somewhat Somewhat 26.2 24.3 26.2 24.3 33.3 21.7 34.7 31.1 37.5 36.0
Very Very 61.4 63.7 61.4 63.7 44.6 58.3 40.6 51.5 35.7 36.8
Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture Importance of Maintaining Distinct Culture
Somewhat 16.2 15.0 16.2 15.0 16.2 15.0 18.3 14.9 20.3 21.8 26.1 29.3
Very 78.6 79.9 78.6 79.9 78.6 79.9 75.8 69.1 72.9 72.9 66.7 60.6

• Support for blending into the larger culture and
  for maintaining a distinct culture are positively
  related (r.1415)
• Not seen as an either/or proposition

30
Civic and Political Participation
31
Patterns of Civic Engagement

• California Bay LA San
  Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Group
• Participation 20.4 23.5 18.9
  18.8 17.9 22.9 25.4
• Organizational
• Problem
• Solving 28.7 28.7 28.9
  25.9 27.8 33.1 27.5
• Informal
• Problem
• Solving 32.9 29.4 33.4
  32.9 34.4 28.8 35.9

32
Interest in Politics

• Nation California Bay LA San
  Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Very
• Interested 18.9 19.4 15.4
  22.2 23.5 16.6 17.8 14.1
• Somewhat
• Interested 46.1 47.9 50.7
  45.1 44.7 48.3 51.7 54.9
• Not
• Interested 30.4 27.6 28.7
  28.3 29.4 28.5 22.9 25.4
  
• Not Sure/
• Dont Know 4.1 4.4 5.2
  3.5 2.3 5.3 6.8 5.6
• Question How interested are you in politics and
  public affairs? Would you say you are very
  interested, somewhat interested, or not at all
  interested?

33
Voter Registration

• Nation California Bay
  LA San Central Inland Other
• Area Diego
  Valley Empire
• Registered 77.4 79.5 75.9
  81.6 73.8 77.9 81.0 78.4
• Not
• Registered 21.4 19.5 23.0
  18.1 21.4 22.1 17.9 18.9
• This question was only asked of citizens.

34
Electoral Participation, 2004

• California Bay LA San
  Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Contacted 36.7 48.3 33.9
  33.3 39.0 36.9 33.8
• Voted 62.3 60.9 67.4
  54.8 61.0 53.6 58.1

35
Latinos and Partisanship
36
Patterns of Partisanship

• Overall U.S. Born CA Born
  Outside CA U.S.
• Democrat 42.1 55.9
  50.6 33.9 37.0
• Republican 21.5 26.0
  22.8 18.8 10.5
• Independent 8.1 5.6
  7.1 10.0 9.0
• Dont Care 12.7 4.8
  6.8 17.4 20.1
• Dont Know 15.6 8.6
  12.1 20.0 23.2
  

37
Partisanship Among Citizens

• U.S. CA Naturalized CA
  Reg CA Not Reg CA
• Democrat 55.9 50.6 43.9
  47.3 55.9 56.9 33.6 28.6
• Republican 26.0 22.8 24.9
  17.1 26.1 18.3 22.3 27.4
• Independent 5.6 7.1 8.6
  9.3 6.1 8.5 8.2 7.9
• Dont Care 4.8 6.7 9.2
  7.8 3.9 4.3 15.4 14.5
• Dont Know 8.6 12.1 13.4
  18.3 8.1 11.8 20.6 21.4

38
Patterns of Partisanship, California

• Nation California Bay
  LA San Central Inland Other
• Area Diego Valley
  Empire
• Strong
• Democrat 17.6 33.1 23.1
  39.3 27.7 27.3 36.1 23.9
• Democrat 16.3 25.7 34.1
  25.8 21.3 20.5 24.1 26.1
• Leans
• Democrat 10.4 8.5 8.8
  8.6 6.4 8.0 2.4 15.2
• Independent 38.5 12.4 13.2 11.0
  14.9 17.1 10.8 13.0
• Leans
• Republican 6.8 4.4 4.4
  3.0 4.3 9.1 6.0 4.4
• Republican 5.9 9.8 8.8
  6.2 12.8 11.4 13.3 14.1

39
Partisanship and Gender

• Male Female
• Democrat 41.2 40.7
• Republican 23.7
  18.7
• Independent 9.3
  7.6
• Dont Care 11.7
  14.6
• Dont Know 14.1
  18.4

40
Citizenship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
the Country

• Citizen CA Non-citizen CA
• Iraq War 30.0 30.3
  33.2 28.3
• Economy 14.7 15.2
  12.4 17.6
• Illegal
• Immigration 8.4 8.3
  14.8 13.4
• Education/
• Schools 4.2 5.1
  4.7 1.2
• Other 12.4 11.3
  6.6 6.8
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the country today?

41
Partisanship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
the Country

• Democrat CA Republican CA
  Independent CA
• Iraq War 33.8 33.2
  25.1 29.4 25.8
  28.4
• Economy 15.0 17.1
  14.6 15.0 14.5 17.9
• Illegal
• Immigration 6.9 7.5
  9.0 8.8 10.6
  14.1
• Education/
• Schools 5.4 4.3
  4.5 2.4 5.0
  3.7
• Other 11.7 10.4
  17.3 12.6 16.1
  4.6
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the country today?

42
Partisanship and Issue PositionsPreferred Party
to Address Problem Facing Country

• Dems CA Reps CA Neither
  CA Dont CA
• 
  
  Know
• Democrat 39.4 49.3 7.4 6.8
  43.1 32.4 10.1 11.2
• Republican 14.6 7.4 26.2 33.1
  46.3 50.6 13.0 8.7
• Independent 12.1 22.7 6.8 8.2
  63.8 51.2 17.2 17.8
• Dont Care 6.2 10.1 3.9 5.0
  54.2 37.5 35.7 47.2
• Dont Know 6.1 6.0 4.8 6.6
  48.5 43.0 40.6 44.2
• Which political party do you think has a better
  approach to address this problem?

43
Citizenship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
Latinos

• Citizen CA Non-citizen CA
• Illegal
• Immigration 25.0 25.4
  35.1 30.7
• Education/
• Schools 13.9 16.7
  3.6 4.6
• Unemp/Jobs 11.7 10.9
  12.6 11.2
• Iraq War 1.5 2.0
  1.6 2.8
• Other 13.6 13.5
  9.2 8.4
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the Latino community today?

44
Partisanship and Issue PositionsProblem Facing
Latinos

• Democrat CA Republican
  CA Independent CA
• Illegal
• Immigration 24.7 24.8
  23.7 26.0 27.5 32.2
• Education/
• Schools 18.2 16.1
  15.3 15.8 11.3 10.0
• Unemp/Jobs 12.4 12.3
  11.0 6.8 9.7 11.7
• Iraq War 1.8 1.7
  0.9 3.0 1.9
  4.2
• Other 13.8 10.5
  16.4 23.3 14.4
  8.7
• What do you think is THE one most important
  problem facing the Latino community today?

45
Partisanship and Issue PositionsPreferred Party
to Address Problem Facing Latinos

• Dems CA Reps CA
  Neither CA Dont CA
• 
  
  Know
• Democrat 44.8 51.2 6.7
  6.6 37.1 32.0 11.4 10.0
• Republican 19.3 13.1 21.0 24.8
  42.1 49.3 17.6 12.6
• Independent 14.4 18.6 7.8 7.0
  55.7 56.2 22.0 18.0
• Dont Care 12.1 10.2 6.2
  4.2 48.2 41.0 33.5 44.4
• Dont Know 7.7 7.1 6.2
  8.8 40.5 34.3 45.6 49.6
• Which political party do you think has a better
  approach to address this problem?

46
IMMIGRATION POLICY
47
(No Transcript)
48
Preferred Immigration Policy, by Generation

• 1st CA 2nd
  CA 3rd CA 4th CA
• Immediate
• Legalization 53.6 58.2 23.7
  22.1 35.5 37.2 15.5 16.3
• Guest Worker
• Legalization 25.3 22.8 43.7
  53.4 35.1 34.3 47.0 52.1
• Guest Worker
• Temporary 10.6 9.6 13.9 16.3
  12.0 12.1 13.6 12.6
• Seal Border 2.1 0.8 7.3
  2.3 6.5 7.5 11.5 12.9

49
Latino National Survey Executive Summary
Demographic Tables Background Tables
Questionnaire and Toplines

• Available at the website of the Washington
  Institute for the Study of Ethnicity, Race, and
  Sexuality (WISER), University of Washington,
  Seattle
• http//depts.washington.edu/uwiser/LNS.shtml