Sales Forecasting

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Johns Hopkins University Press

• Sales Forecasting
• Not a science, but a black art
• Important to consider your methodology
• Articulate your assumptions in a cover memo
• Call out risks, areas of uncertainty
• Study sales patterns of similar books
• Be conservative

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Johns Hopkins University Press

• My approach
• Title-by-title forecasting on the frontlist,
  recent backlist, and backlist bestsellers
• Tedious, but it forces you to study sales
  patterns and absorb facts
• Forecasting deep backlist is a real shot in the
  dark

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Johns Hopkins University Press

• Frontlist Forecasting
• FY09 We forecast in January 08 for FY beginning
  June
• Fall (08) season is pretty solid
• Spring (09) season can be pretty wobbly so we
  build in slippage
• Import data from preliminary financial
  projections approved by internal and external
  committees

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Johns Hopkins University Press

• The Process
• Break the forecast into a series of small
  forecasts, then roll it up

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Johns Hopkins University Press
Fall 08
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Johns Hopkins University Press
Spring 09
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• Summary with
• Frontlist

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Johns Hopkins University Press
Backlist Bestsellers
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Johns Hopkins University Press
Roll it up
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Johns Hopkins University Press

• Closing Thoughts
• What to do if the numbers dont add up?
• What kind of story is your press trying to tell?
  Growth? Contraction? Decline?
• The lure of magical thinking
• Review your forecast with a trusted colleague
  before calling it final
• Give yourself a day or two to let unwarranted
  enthusiasm dissipate

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Johns Hopkins University Press

• And remember.
• Youll get some of it right
• Youll get some of it wrong
• You will be pleasantly surprised
• You will be unpleasantly dismayed
• The process is instructive, both short-term and
  long-term