Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) Interagency Success

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Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System
(ATCF) Interagency Success
61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New
Orleans (2007)

• Joint Typhoon Warning Center
• Steve Barlow

National Hurricane Center Chris Sisko
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ATCF - Interagency SuccessPart I DOD

• Operational at the JTWC since 1987
• Unique / robust system used in the Tropical
  Cyclone analysis and forecasting process
• Fundamental backbone for creating and delivering
  critical information and products (directly or
  indirectly) to DOD customers in a timely manner
  (Internet, JMV, GCCS-M, DMS, WPMDS/GTS)
• ATCF is an Inter-Departmental Effort and a
  National Asset

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ATCF is a Multi-Agency Effort
NWP Models (FNMOC, NOAA, )
TC Analyses (NOAA, CIMSS)
Consensus (NRL)
Intensity Models (NOAA/CIRA)
Satellite Products (NRL/FNMOC)
Bogus
TCFAs
Wind Radii (NOAA/CIRA)
Model Trackers (JTWC)
Statistics
Wind Probabilities (NOAA/CIRA)
Database
Courtesy of the Naval Research Lab
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Current ATCF Installations Navy sites, NOAA sites
NMFC/JTWC
NMFA
atcfp1
laptop
atcfp2
atcfp3
atcfp4
Shared data
NHC
NRL
CPHC
NCEP
Courtesy of the Naval Research Lab
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View Fix Data / Satellite Overlay 22W
Nov 01, 2006 0038Z SSMI 37 GHz
Nov 01, 2006 1057Z SSMI 37 GHz
Nov 02, 2006 1043Z SSMI 37 GHz
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Monte Carlo Wind Probabilities (Developed by
NOAA/NESDIS, implemented on ATCF)
22W Nov 02, 2006

• Use past distributions of track and intensity
  errors with a prescribed wind structure to create
  1000 forecast realizations
• The realizations are used to compute cumulative
  wind probabilities either at a point or on a grid.

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Consensus Forecast Technique
CONW 2007 WBAI NGPI EGRI (UKMET) AVNI (GFS) JGSI
(Japanese Global) ----------- JTYI (Japanese
Typhoon) GFNI COWI AFWI TCLI (Australian TC
model) CONW 2006 added ECMI CONW 2007
eliminated COWI and AFWI
22W
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Satellite-Based and Surface Data
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Objective Best Track For Intensity and Wind Radii

• Objective analyses used for error checking of
  tropical cyclone fix data and as baselines for
  the forecasters analysis
• These objective analyses can be done with least
  squares fit or weighted average (adjustable
  weights for fix types and fix agencies)

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New Wind Radii Forecast Dialog
Wind radii forecasting can be tedious. For an
intense hurricane or typhoon, the forecaster may
be burdened with 40 or more wind quadrant
forecasts! This new dialog should help ease the
burden.
Courtesy of the Naval Research Lab
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ATCF - Interagency SuccessPart II DOC
61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference New
Orleans (2007)

• National Weather Service (NWS)
• National Hurricane Center
• Chris Sisko

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ATCF - Interagency SuccessPart II DOC/NOAA/NWS

• Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast System
• (ATCF)
• Introduced to NHC late-80s during IHC
  operational since 1989.
• Evolved over time on the following systems
  PC (1989-2000) ? Unix (2000-2002) ? Linux
  (2003-Present) ? Web-based (future?)
• Is the special system or tool in hurricane
  operations that drives our ability to provide
  critical information and products (directly or
  indirectly).

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Users

• DOC/NOAA/NWS
• National Hurricane Center (NHC)
• Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
• Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
• DOD/USN/USAF
• Naval Maritime Forecast Center / Joint Typhoon
  Warning Center / (NMFC/JTWC)
• Naval Maritime Forecast Agency (NMFA)
• 17th Operational Weather Squadron

COOP Site (Continuity of Operations) Backup
Site
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Users
Inter-connected

• DOC/NOAA/NWS
• National Hurricane Center (NHC)
• Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC)
• Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC)
• DOD/USN/USAF
• Naval Maritime Forecast Center / Joint Typhoon
  Warning Center / (NMFC/JTWC)
• Naval Maritime Forecast Agency (NMFA)
• 17th Operational Weather Squadron

DOC and DOD maintain separate ATCF systems
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Users continued

• ATCF System is based on an Interactive Forecast
  Process
• The Key is SPEED or the need for SPEED!

• Less time doing the mechanics, more time spent on
  the meteorology.
• PAST, we required 4 hours before issuing
  advisory, NOW we do this in 3 hours.

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Users continued

• Indirect users of ATCF ? Everyone

• ATCF produces
• Forecast Advisories
• Public Advisories
• Discussion - forecaster
• ICAO Aviation Warning
• Position estimate
• Update
• Text probabilities

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Users continued - everyone

• ATCF provides critical data for NRL and FNMOC
  Tropical Cyclone Pages (Floaters/Storm Sectors)

ATCF
Forecaster
NRL TC Page ? http//www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/
tc_home.html
Hawkins/Richards (NRL)
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Users continued - everyone
Graphics that leverage the ATCF database or use
specific ATCF data as input.
ATCF best track database (post-storm analysis)
NOAA/NOS GIS Group (Gibney)
Public, Private and University uses of ATCF
Guidance (example provided by CSU-Vigh)
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Future Direction of ATCF

• Emphasis on making it a web application
• NRL has produced a working prototype
• Others have drafted new preliminary plans
• Additional requirements (adds new challenges)
• NMCI Navy Marine Corp Internet
• NOAA/NWS secure IT environment
• Our goal is to continue the joint effort
• Continue joint Navy/NRL ? ? NOAA/NWS exchanges
• Continue infusion of important JHT work into the
  ATCF
• Continue improving the system
• More time for the meteorology
• More time for critical coordination

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Conclusion

• The ATCF is the special tropical cyclone tool
  needed to provide our decision makers and end
  users with timely critical information
• This interagency success hinges on continuing the
  joint cooperation between DOD (USN/USAF) and DOC
  (NOAA/NWS)and current fiscal environment demands
  unity of effort
• Our primary focus in this joint venture is to
  improve the ATCF capabilities (share new
  technology in order to meet our respective
  missions)

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Acknowledgements

• Naval Research Lab (NRL) Monterey
• Buck Sampson and Ann Schrader (SAIC)
• TC Web Group
• JTWC and CPHC (HNL)
• NCEP Central Operations and EMC
• GFDL (Morris Bender and Tim Marchok)
• NHC Tech Staff
• UKMET Office
• USN FNMOC
• USN SPAWAR
• USN CNMOC
• USN ONR
• USAF AFWA
• USWRP Joint Hurricane Testbed
• So many others

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Questions or Comments?