World Energy Outlook

1
World Energy Outlook 2004
Dr. Fatih Birol Chief Economist Head, Economic
Analysis Division
2
Global Energy Trends
3
World Primary Energy Demand
Fossil fuels will continue to dominate the global
energy mix, while oil remains the leading fuel
4
Increase in World Oil Demand, 2002-2030
22
17
12
mb/d
7
2
OECD
Non-OECD
-3
Power generation
Industry
Transport
Other
Most of the increase in oil demand comes from the
transport sector especially in OECD countries
5
China Oil Supply Balance
Chinas oil imports will soar from less than 2
mb/d now to almost 10 mb/d in 2030 equal to
over 74 of domestic demand
6
Incremental Oil Demand in the Transport Sector,
2002-2030
40
30
mb/d
20
10
0
Total oil demand
Oil transport
Non-OECD oil
transport
Transport oil demand in Non-OECD countries will
increase three times more than in the OECD
7
Road Vehicle Stock
The vehicle stock increases much faster in
non-OECD regions, though most vehicles will still
be in the OECD in 2030
8
Increase in Primary Gas Demand
Most of the increase in gas demand comes from the
power sector especially in OECD countries
9
Indicative LNG Unit Capital Cost
700
600
500
400
dollars per tonne of capacity
300
200
100
0
Mid-1990s
2002
2010
2030
Liquefaction
Shipping
Regasification
The recent dramatic fall in LNG costs is expected
to continue
10
Environmental Implications
11
CO2 emissions, 1971-2030
CO2 emissions will increase fastest in developing
countries, overtaking OECD in the 2020s
12
CO2 emissions by sector,1990-2030
CO2 emissions in power generation and transport
are expected to increase the most
13
Growth in World Energy Demand and CO2 Emissions
2.5
2.0
1.5
average annual growth rate
1.0
0.5
0.0
1971-2002
2002-2030
Primary energy demand
Emissions
Average carbon content of primary energy
increases slightly through 2030 in contrast to
past trends
14
Energy-Related CO2 Emissions EU Deficit vs.
Russia Surplus, 2008-2012
Russia average emissions surplus will equal EU
emissions deficit in the 2008-2012 period
15
Electricity Deprivation
In 2030, if no major new policies are
implemented, there will still be 1.4 billion
people without electricity.
16
World Alternative Policy Scenario
17
World Alternative Policy Scenario

• Analyses impact of new environmental
  energy-security policies worldwide
• OECD Policies currently under consideration
• Non-OECD Also includes more rapid declines in
  energy intensity resulting from faster deployment
  of more-efficient technology
• Impact on fuel-mix, environment cost
• Oil, gas electricity prices change

18
Reduction in World Oil Demand in the Alternative
vs. Reference Scenario, 2030
Oil savings 12.8 mb/d
Oil savings in 2030 would be equivalent to the
combined current production of Saudi Arabia, UAE
and Nigeria
19
OECD CO2 Emissions in the Reference and
Alternative Scenarios
OECD CO2 emissions peak around 2020 25 higher
than in 1990
20
Difference in Electricity Investment in the
Alternative vs. Reference Scenario 2003-2030
1 000
500
0
billion dollars (2000)
- 500
-1 000
-1 500
-2 000
Additional investments on the demand side are
more than offset by lower investment on the
supply side
21
Conclusions

• On current policies, world energy needs will be
  almost 60 higher in 2030 than now
• Energy resources are more than adequate to meet
  demand until 2030 well beyond
• But projected market trends raise serious
  concerns
• Increased vulnerability to supply disruptions
• Rising CO2 emissions
• Huge energy-investment needs
• Persistent energy poverty
• More vigorous policies would save energy reduce
  emissions significantly
• But a truly sustainable energy system will call
  for faster technology development deployment
• Urgent decisive government action is needed