NUCLEAR ENERGY FURTURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST

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The International Meeting on Nuclear Energy on
Proliferation in the Middle East Amman Jordon,
June 22-24, 2009
NUCLEAR ENERGY FURTURE IN THE MIDDLE EAST
Dr. Esmat A. Ezz Egypt
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Introduction
3
Introduction

• It is stated that the total energy supply in
  1994, was about
• 54 percent derived from oil and gas,
• 22 percent from coal, 12 percent from biomass
  fuels and
• about 6 percent each from hydropower and nuclear
  fission.
• the contribution from geothermal energy,
  wind-power and direct use of solar energy totaled
  less than a half percent.
• Of the world fossil-fuel use, the industrialized
  countries accounted for almost three quarters.

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Introduction

• Human activities rival or exceed natural
  processes as mobilizers of
• sulfur oxides,
• nitrogen oxides,
• hydrocarbons,
• lead,
• cadmium,
• mercury and
• suspended particulate matter in the global
  environment

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Introduction

• Actions of the humans have increased the global
  atmospheric burden of
• carbon dioxide by almost 30 percent and
• the methane by more than 100 percent
• Compared to pre-industrial levels and among all
  human activities
• levels and among all human activities,
• the technologies of energy supply-
• above all, fossil-fuel and
• biomass energy technologies-are the dominant
  sources of most of these global pollutants and
  significant sources

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Introduction

• Actions of the humans have increased the global
  atmospheric burden of
• carbon dioxide by almost 30 percent and
• the methane by more than 100 percent
• Compared to pre-industrial levels and among all
  human activities
• levels and among all human activities,
• the technologies of energy supply-
• above all, fossil-fuel and
• biomass energy technologies-are the dominant
  sources of most of these global pollutants and
  significant sources

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Introduction

• Global warming Carbon dioxide release from
  fossil-fuel burning is the largest single
  contributor is arguably the most dangerous of all
  of the environmental impacts of human activity.
• Climate affects- and climate change can
  drastically disrupt- most of the other
  environmental conditions and processes
• magnitude and timing of runoff,
• frequency and severity of storms,
• sea level and ocean currents,
• soil conditions,
• vegetation patterns and distribution of pests and
  pathogens ,among others..

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Increasing Carbon Dioxide
Malinkovich cycle attributed to Earths orbital
anomalies
Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 years
5 warmest years 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
Source NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Global Temperature Variability
Sir N. Stern report compares fossil-fuel Based /
Climate-Friendly Scenarios
Ref Dr. Maryvonne Plessis-Fraissard
World Bank
Every year we pump more than six billion tones of
carbon emissions into the air from burning fossil
fuel, despite a general consensus that this
contributes directly to climate change.
Source NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
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Climate Atmosphere (CO2, H2O, N2O, CH4, etc)
Intensive agriculture
Extensive agriculture
Wetlands freshwater systems
Forests
effects of ecosystem function on climate
atmosphere
impact of climate atmospheric change on
ecosystems
Source GIS " Climat-Environnement-Société "
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Climate Atmosphere (CO2, H2O, N2O, CH4, etc)
Intensive agriculture
Extensive agriculture
Wetlands freshwater systems
Forests
Water Table
effects of ecosystem function on climate
atmosphere
effects of ecosystem function on water flow
water quality
impact of climate atmospheric change on
ecosystems
Source GIS " Climat-Environnement-Société "
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The Middle East Energy Situation and Needs
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The Middle East Energy Situation and Needs

• Two thirds of the world s proven oil reserves
  as well as good amount of natural gas are found
  in the Middle East..
• Major part of this oil and gas has been and is
  still being exported with little left which is
  short of satisfying the ever growing needs
  for development and economic growth.
• Oil and gas are ever-declining finite resource
  and estimates indicate that they will run out in
  the next 50-100 years
• The serious environmental impacts of these
  fossil energy resources are beyond any doubt
• The requirement for renewable sources of energy
  that are friendly to the environment becomes of
  utmost importance.

• The requirement for renewable sources of energy
  that are friendly to the environment becomes of
  utmost importance.

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The Middle East Energy Situation and Needs

• The supply from renewable sources of energy is
  limited for various reasons
• The wind energy potential is limited and for
  hydropower, specific geographical conditions
  must be met.
• The production of biomass for energy purposes is
  limited due to land use and mineral circulation
  constraints.
• Solar energy is often mentioned as a candidate
  for unlimited energy supply.

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The Middle East Energy Situation and Needs

• Solar energy
• In the Middle East the solar energy is abundant
• Constraints appear in the material and land use
  requirements.
• Large -scale applications of photovoltaic solar
  cells for instance are based on low-efficiency
  silicon systems,
• high yield solar cells require relatively
  scarce elements such as arsenic and cadmium)

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Energy Demand in the Middle East

• Three factors are deciding the amount of energy
  demand in the Middle East
• the population growth
• the average level of economic activity per person
  (customarily expressed in terms of gross domestic
  product-GDP- per person)
• and the corresponding average energy intensity of
  economic activity (the ratio of energy use to GDP
  )

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Population Growth

• In the Middle East, population growth is
  significantly high.
• According to the Population Reference Bureau, the
  2008 World Population Sheet the population of
  Egypt in 2008 was 74.9 millions with expected
  increase of 2 it would become 95.9 millions in
  the year 2025, and would reach 117.9 in the year
  2050.
• It is necessary to start planning for a reliable
  and more or less permanent source of energy to
  cover the expected increase in the energy demand.
• Nuclear energy is the most suitable answer to the
  expected energy needs of the Middle East in the
  years to come.

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Nuclear Energy
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Nuclear Energy

• Nuclear energy is one of the greatest discoveries
  of mankind, an energy source good for thousands
  of years developed just in time to replace the
  dwindling and climate-affecting fossil resources.
• As mankind cannot survive without energy, it is
  difficult to imagine that a source of such
  potential would not be used
• The ecological arguments promote the use of
  nuclear energy on large scale even before fossil
  fuels are exhausted in order to reduce carbon
  dioxide emissions...
• About 450 nuclear reactors are now in operation
  producing about 17 percent of world electricity
  .48 reactors are under construction

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Nuclear Energy

• Close to one third of all reactors are already
  outside the nuclear weapon countries.
• Impressive plans are proposed in several
  countries, such as Japan, South Korea Taiwan and
  China.
• If we take China as developing country, it
  initiated a nuclear power program where it
  achieved 3,500 Megawatt (MWe) in the year 2000
  and plan to produce 25,000 MWe in 2010, 50,000
  MWe in 2015 and to reach 350,000 MWe by the year
  2050. (Ryukichi Imai)
• France has continued a build up to what is now a
  predominant dependence on nuclear energy without
  any problem.

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Nuclear Energy

• Close to one third of all reactors are already
  outside the nuclear weapon countries.
• Impressive plans are proposed in several
  countries, such as Japan, South Korea Taiwan and
  China.
• If we take China as developing country, it
  initiated a nuclear power program where it
  achieved 3,500 Megawatt (MWe) in the year 2000
  and plan to produce 25,000 MWe in 2010, 50,000
  MWe in 2015 and to reach 350,000 MWe by the year
  2050. (Ryukichi Imai)
• France has continued a build up to what is now a
  predominant dependence on nuclear energy without
  any problem.

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Requirements for Nuclear Energy Power Plant
Operation
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Requirements for Nuclear Energy Power Plant
Operation

• Nuclear fission reactors are the realistic
  alternative to carbon fuel until fusion becomes a
  realistic proposition.
• For fission power plant the following is needed
• A reactor dedicated for energy production (LWR)
• Supply of necessary low level enriched uranium
  (3- 3.5 )

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Requirements for Nuclear Energy Power Plant
Operation

• Countries operating nuclear power stations should
  be obliged to submit their nuclear facilities to
  international safeguards and to join the
  Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT),
• Furthermore, several points have to taken care
  of
• a-Environmental radiation hazard
• b-Security risk from generated plutonium

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Requirements for Nuclear Energy Power Plant
Operation

• a-Environmental radiation hazard
• This could be considered under three headings (C
  R Hill,1996)
• Operational or accidental (for example Chernobyl)
  release of radioactivity.
• Radiological consequences of waste disposal and
  storage
• decommissioning consequences
• Much work has been going on to minimize .if not
  to prevent the possibility of environmental
  radiation release and to make operation cycle as
  safe as possible.

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Requirements for Nuclear Energy Power Plant
Operation

• b-Security risk from generated plutonium
• This problem has been overemphasized and it
  should be discussed at length because plutonium
  produced in nuclear power plants cannot be
  used to produce nuclear weapons.

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Requirements for Nuclear Energy Power Plant
Operation Plutonium
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Difference between Reactor Grade and Weapon Grade
Plutonium

• In reactors dedicated to produce energy, like LWR
  reactor, it burns Low enriched uranium to
  28,000 MWD\T or 30,000 MWD\ T
• MWD is 24000 KWh
• MWD\T means 24000 KWh\Ton
• The reactor uses only 3 of the uranium
• The portion used causes fission and a part of
  neutrons released turns uranium238 to plutonim239
• U238 absorbs one neutron gt Pu239

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Difference between Reactor Grade and Weapon Grade
Plutonium

• Pu239 one neutron gt Pu 240 one neutron gt
  Pu241 one neutron gt Pu 242
• After that plutonium becomes unstable.
• Pu241 turns into Americium by nuclear
  transmutation and emits a large amount of gamma
  rays and heat.
• Without heat removal, the Americium would melt by
  its own heat. if left for sometime.
• The type of plutonium which can be used for
  nuclear weapons is plutonium 239 with very little
  of plutonium240. It is difficult to separate
  plutonium 240. Plutonium used for weapon
  production should not contain more than 7 of Pu
  240.

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• The following Table demonstrates the amount
  of different Plutonium isotopes produced in
  nuclear power reactors and weapon grade reactors

• --------------------------------------------------
  --------------------------------------------------
  
• Nuclear reactor initial enrichment average
  level of Plutonium composition
• 
  Burning MWD\T 238 239 240
  241 242
• --------------------------------------------------
  --------------------------------------------------
  
• Tokai unit 1 natural Uranium
  3,000 .04 79.4 17.8 2.2
  .4
• LWR (BWR ) 3
  28,000 1.5 58.7 26.6
  8.3 4
• 1,100 MW
• LWR (PWR ) 3.4
  30,700 1.3 61.7 22
  9.6 4.3
• 1,160 MW
• --------------------------------------------------
  ----------------------------------------------Weap
  on Grade ReactorsStanford
  
  .012 93.8 5.8 0.35 .02
• Selden
  0
  93.5 6 0.5 0

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UNIDIR Comparison of existing proposals by
timeframe and scope
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(No Transcript)
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Conclusions

• It is suggested that to overcome the possible
  abuse of the spent fuel from the power reactors,
  strict control over the reprocessing operations
  of this fuel could be carried out by a regional
  or international agency in a special reprocessing
  centre
• The establishment of a regional centre for
  reprocessing of the spent fuels of all the power
  reactors in the Middle East which operates under
  strict safeguards of the IAEA., could be an
  answer to all proliferation fears from operation
  of nuclear power stations.

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Conclusions

• To close any gap in the nuclear safeguards, the
  IAEA came with the Additional Protocol in 1997
  which expanded its safeguards authorities and
  activities.
• This protocol environmental sampling is
  restricted to locations visited by inspectors
  anyway
• Satellite imagery has been demonstrated as a
  powerful tool to detect clandestine facilities

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Thank You