A Defense Industry Perspective on Modeling and Simulation

1
A Defense Industry Perspective on Modeling and
Simulation

• Katherine L. Morse, Ph.D.
• Chief Scientist, ASDI
• morsek_at_saic.com

2
The importance of MS to the DoD

• Approximately 10 of DoD expenditures are on
  modeling simulation
• Encompassing a broad spectrum of areas
• We see very large expenditures on MS systems.
• JSIMS is 1.533B?
• So, to me, with expenditures this large, there is
  no question about the need for MS education
  research

Source Mike Zyda, NPS
3
Academias Opportunity

• The DoD and industry are focused on a few very
  large programs to the exclusion of almost all
  else
• Very little DoD funding for basic MS research
• Once we deploy these large systems, where will we
  go for the next generation MS technology?
• Academia has funding sources unavailable to
  industry which can be used to develop this
  technology, and which can put academia in an
  excellent position to meet this need

4
What technology will be needed?

• Human behavior representation
• Unpredictable opponents
• Behavior unconstrained by anything but physics
• Validation in the absence of data
• Models for which we cannot acquire data
• Models for which data is too expensive to acquire
• Functional/logical interoperability
• Just because we can physically interconnect
  models doesnt mean the result add value
• NOT more sockets

5
Human Behavior Representation Story Telling

• skilled storytelling techniques help
  participants in a virtual environment sense that
  they are in a real environment and behave
  accordingly.
• Develop autonomous agent technology to carry out
  high level behavior of characters in a networked
  virtual environment
• Develop technology to guide those behaviors
  within the parameters of a given story line.

Source Mike Zyda, NPS
6
Design Challenges for HBR

• Users must not be able to game the HBR
• HBR must learn, both individually and as
  aggregates
• HBRs must be guided by, but not constrained by,
  doctrine or history
• Behavior must be constrained only by physics
• This has implications for representation of other
  modeled objects

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Design Challenges for Story Telling

• Narrative Architecture
• Crafting and Feedback Actions
• What needs to be fed to the Narrative Agents
• Agent Autonomy
• Autonomy vs. Story Control
• Objective Function
• Dramatic Intensity
• Event Sequencing

Source Mike Zyda, NPS
8
Logical Interoperability

• Interoperability architectures solve the physical
  interoperability problem
• Although there are still issues with matching
  data models, e.g. agile FOM
• Need to be able to reason about the suitability
  of models for integration/federation
• Need to be able to reason about the capabilities
  of the resulting model

9
Conclusions

• Alternate funding sources should be sought for
  next generation MS solutions
• Progress on next generation solutions put
  universities in a good position when the DoD
  decides its ready to take the next step