Lecture

1
Lecture 6 Power Transitions, Hegemonic
Stability, Interdependence
1. Power Transition Theory A. Internal Power
Transition B. External Crossover Point C.
Satisfaction Caveat 2. Hegemonic Stability
Theory A. Logic Of Theory B. Empirical
Evidence 3. Interdependence Theory
2
Power Transition Theory
1. Developed By Kenneth Organski In The
1950s 2. Rejects Traditional Balance of Power
Theory A. Assumes System Is Characterized
By Anarchy Equality B. Predicts Equality
In The Power Of States Or Coalitions Leads To
Peace 3. Power Transition Theory Explains
Hegemonic Wars 4. Change Triggered By Uneven
Growth Rates Across Units
Key Links Internal Development with
International System
3
Power Transition Theory
THE WITHIN COUNTRY POWER TRANSITION
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
POWER TRANSITION POINT
TIME
THE BETWEEN COUNTRY POWER TRANSITION
RISING CHALLENGER
DECLINING HEGEMON
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT
THE CROSS OVER POINT
TIME
4
Power Transition Theory
1. Important Caveat Dissatisfaction 2. Is
Organski Correct? Is Balance Of Power Wrong? A)
Explains Distribution Of Power In System (i.e.,
The Size And Growth Of Billiard Balls)
Balance Of Power Focuses More On Balancing B)
Satisfaction Caveat Is Dangerous C) Security
Dilemma Persists Among Satisfied
5
Hegemonic Stability Theory
1. Picks Up Where Power Transition Leaves Off 2.
Kindlebergers The World In Depression (1973) 3.
Hegemonic Powers Provide Liquidity And Open
Markets 4. Decline Of Britain As Hegemon In
1930s A. Collapse Of International Economic
System B. Rise Of Fascism And World War II 5.
Hegemonic Stability Theorists Create General
Theory
6
Hypotheses From Hegemonic Stability Theory
1. A Rising Hegemonic Power Should Be Associated
With The Creation Of International Regimes, A
Decline In International Conflict, And An
Expansion Of International Trade. 2. A
Declining Hegemonic Power Should Be Associated
With The Collapse Of International Regimes, A
Rise In International Conflict, And A Decline In
International Trade.
Key Question of the 1970s Is the U.S. a
Declining Hegemon?
7
Evaluating Competing Theories
Hegemonic Stability Theory
H1 Rising Hegemon --()--gt Openness Of Trading
System H2 Declining Hegemon--(-)--gtOpenness Of
Trading System
International Business Cycle Theory
H1 Economic Expansion --()--gt Openness Of
Trading System H2 Economic Contraction
--(-)--gtOpenness Of Trading System
8
Evaluating Competing Theories
International Business Cycle
Contraction
Expansion
Rising Hegemon
Opening, Opening
Opening, Closing
Hegemonic Stability Theory
Declining Hegemon
Closing, Opening
Closing, Closing
9
Hegemonic Stability TheoryA Test Using
International Trade
Relative Power (U.K. Blue) (U.S. Red)
Amount of Free Trade (Black Lines)
1840
1860
1880
1900
1920
1940
1960
1980
2000
Expansion
Contraction
10
Summarizing The Graphical Test
Hegemonic Stability Theory Predictions Opening
Closing Closing Opening Opening Closing
International Business Cycle Predictions Opening
Closing Opening Closing Opening Opening
Time Period 1820-1873 1873-1896 1896-1913 191
8-1940 1945-1960 1960-1995
Actual Opening Closing Opening Closing Openin
g Opening
Legend Correctly Predicted Periods Shown In Bold
Text
11
Final Points On EvaluatingHegemonic Stability
Theory
1. Correlation Is Not Enough Process Tracing
Required 2. Should You Throw Out Hegemonic
Stability Theory? 3. Focus On Evidence Which
Supports And Refutes Argument 4. Single Versus
Multiple Causes 5. Many Ways To Test
Theories -- Different Operationalizations --
Different Dependent Variables
12
Interdependence Theory
1. Developed By Keohane And Nye In 1977 Book
Entitled Power And Interdependence 2. Key
Insight Realism Not Useful In Most Issue
Areas 3. Views Issue Area As A Spectrum
Pure Realism
Complex Interdependence
Interdependence
Key They Desire To Keep Theory Separate From
Idealism
13
Interdependence
Independence
No Interaction Between States
Dependence
A Depends On B But Not Vice Versa
Interdependence
A Depends On B B Depends On A
14
Interdependence Hypotheses
Bilateral (e.g., U.S. Relations With Japan)
Bilateral Interdependence --()--gt Economic
Cooperation Bilateral Interdependence --(-)--gt
Military Conflict
Systemic (e.g., Amount Of Trade Between All Great
Powers)
Systemic Interdependence --()--gt Economic
Cooperation Systemic Interdependence --(-)--gt
Military Conflict
15
Complex Interdependence Versus Realism
Complex Interdependence States, IGOs,
NGOs Multiple Goals Actors At Many Levels Not
Very Useful Low Politics Not Fungible
Realists States Only Security
Only Unitary Very Useful High
Politics Fungible
1. Units 2. Goals 3. Actors 4. Force 5.
Issues 6. Power
16
Final Points On Complex Interdependence

• Interdependence Is A Spectrum
• -- Complements Realism Not A Substitute
• Emphasizes Linking Issue Areas And Agenda
  Setting
• -- Governmental and Non-Governmental Actors
• System Transformation
• -- Interdependent World Versus Independent World