The question

1
The question Find the most substantial
estimates of the percentage improvements in US
building energy efficiency that will be possible
over the next 10-20 years. Focus on building
energy use United States or developed country
contextBoth technical and policy drivers Fast
moving field - current citations needed
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Points of departure
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Mild performance anxiety sets in
4
First stop The ED Library research guides --
Susan Koskinen Green Design / Sustainable
Architecture Resourcesvarious Building Science
topics
5
A cycle develops
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Summary of the search In two hours I visited
approximately 75 URLs and downloaded 15 PDF
documents The search involved a dozen
Google-to-detailed-PDF cycles and multiple
false starts. As often happens, the question
became complex.
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Productive threads
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Dead ends
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Promising citations Energy Information
Administration (EIA) - Annual Energy Outlook with
Projections to 2030, http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/
aeo/index.html (accessed May 22, 2007). IPCC
Technical Paper I Technical Summary,
http//www.gcrio.org/ipcc/techrepI/techsumm.html
(accessed May 22, 2007). IPCC Technical Paper
I Residential, Commercial and Institutional
Buildings Sector, http//www.gcrio.org/ipcc/techr
epI/residential.html2.4 (accessed May 22,
2007). Climate Change 2001 Mitigation,
http//www.grida.no/climate/ipcc_tar/wg3/093.htm
(accessed May 22, 2007). 2006 Integrated Energy
Policy Report Update, http//www.energy.ca.gov/20
06_policy_update/index.html (accessed May 22,
2007). Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future,
http//www.ornl.gov/sci/eere/cef/ (accessed May
22, 2007). Wege Summary Tb, http//www.princeto
n.edu/cmi/resources/wedgesumtb.htm (accessed May
22, 2007). Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development and International
Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (Organisation
for Economic Co-operation and Development
Washington, D.C, 1977). Kyoto - End-Use Energy
Demand (Residential Commercial),
http//www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/kyoto/enduse.html
(accessed May 22, 2007). Pantelis Capros, et
al., Climate Technology Strategies 1 Controlling
Greenhouse Gases. Policy and Technology Options
(Physica-Verlag Heidelberg, 1999). International
Conference on Climate Change Research Evaluation
and Policy Implications, Climate Change Research
Evaluation and Policy Implications (Amsterdam
New York Elsevier Science, 1995).
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Sample predictions
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Observations Google was remarkably quick
effective Policy issues more important than
assumed Given two hours, ample ground covered
but did not pause to review carefully The US
government sites were disappointing Many PDFs
encountered (crtl-F building) Search syntax
unclear as I moved from site to site Jargon a
major issue (SAR, TAR, FAR), Wikipedia Zotero
from George Mason University