S'Japar, Ford Motor Co'

1
The Carbon CycleWorkshop on the Strategic Plan
for the Climate Change Science Program

• Steven Japar
• Research Laboratory, Ford Motor Company
• December 3, 2002
• Washington, D.C.

2
General Comments

• Overview is comprehensive, but
• Key Questions have considerable overlap
• Curtails discussion of specific issues in the
  available space
• A different break-out scheme?
• Desired end points/products
• Needs to achieve goals
• Scientific understanding experiments data
  mining
• Confirming global data satellites, in situ
  remote sensing
• Interactions with other areas of the Climate
  Change Science Program
• Model improvement/development, as appropriate

3
US Carbon Cycle Science ProgramAIMS

• How large/variable are the dynamic reservoirs/
  fluxes of carbon in the Earth system?
• Carbon cycling changes years ?decades ?
  centuries?
• Interactions with climate, water, nitrogen cycles
• What are our options for managing carbon
  sources/sinks to achieve balance of risk/cost/
  benefit to society?
• Science of CO2/CH4 mitigation (sequestration)

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What Is Needed?

• IDENTIFY, QUANTIFY all sources and sinks
• Understand biogeochemistry
• Interactions of carbon, nitrogen, water cycles
• Interactions with climate, ecosystem
  disturbances, air quality
• Impacts of land use alternatives
• Science of CO2, CH4 mitigation
• GLOBAL MAP of land use
• Satellite platforms in situ ecosystem monitoring
• MODEL the carbon cycle
• Couple land and water, especially interfaces
• Regional resolution or parameterization
• Sources/sinks ? ? Land use

5
What Is Needed?

• IDENTIFY, QUANTIFY all sources and sinks
• Understand the biogeochemistry interactions of
  carbon, nitrogen, water cycles climate
• Above and below ground
• Flora and Fauna
• Terrestrial, ocean waters
• Surface layer, deep water
• Science of CO2, CH4 mitigation
• GLOBAL MAP of land use
• Satellite platforms in situ ecosystem monitoring
• MODEL the carbon cycle
• Couple land and water, especially interfaces
• Regional resolution or parameterization
• Sources/sinks ? ? Land use

Just About Everything!
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Ford Motor Co.s Research Interests

• Science underlying CO2/CH4 mitigation/
  sequestration
• Princeton University sequestration program
• University of Michigan sponsored Ameriflux work
• Black Carbon
• Impact on radiative forcing of climate
• University of Michigan model development
• In-house optical properties of vehicle particle
  emissions
• Air quality and CO2/CH4 sources/sinks
• Nitrogen fertilization, ozone and biomass, etc.

7
Cautions

• Mapping, remote sensing, modeling are nice, but
  to look into the future we must have the
  underlying science.
• There is no point in collecting data if we have
  to way to manage it and use it.
• It looks good, but vigilance is required

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Q1 Magnitudes/distributions of N.A. carbon
sources/sinks dynamics- controlling processes?

• Research Needs
• Micrometeorological estimates of net land, ocean
  CO2/CH4 fluxes at ecosystem, landscape scales
• Biomass, soil inventories of carbon in all
  managed and unmanaged ecosystems
• Processes in coastal zones, ecosystem margins
• Products
• Quantify regional estimates of C fluxes
• Identify processes controlling C sources/sinks
• Carbon cycle models
• State of N. American Carbon Report

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Q2 Magnitudes/distributions of ocean C
sources/sinks dynamics- controlling processes
timescales?

• Research Needs
• Quantify ocean capacity to absorb fossil fuel CO2
  through export to the deep sea
• Regional/seasonal variation in nutrients, C
  uptake
• Characterization of coastal margins
• Products
• Role of nutrients, primary productivity on
  deep-sea C storage linkage of carbon, nitrogen
  cycles
• Global air/sea fluxes of CO2 delivery of C from
  land to oceans
• Ocean sequestration models biogeochemistry,
  ocean circulation, ecosystem feedback

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Q3 Magnitudes/distributions of global
terrestrial, oceanic, atmospheric C timescales?

• Research needs
• Collection, analysis, integration of global C
  monitoring and inventory data
• Development of coupled, interactive
  carbon-climate, and Earth system models
• Products
• Identification/quantification of processes
  controlling soil C storage, global CO2 exchange
  among land/ocean/air
• Regional estimates of C flux strength
• Remote sensing changes in primary productivity,
  biomass, land cover
• Potential for changes in C storage, fluxes due to
  changes in climate, ecosystem disturbance,
  climate climate feedbacks?

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Q4 Effects of past ? future land use
change/resource management on C sources/sinks?

• Research needs
• Continued monitoring of C storage/flux (soil,
  litter, vegetation, etc.) response to land use
  changes/ management practices
• Continued satellite land use data new remote
  sensing data of biomass
• Process studies linking observations and
  long-term experiments to identify
  cause-and-effect relationships.
• Products
• Effects of land use (then and now) on C
  storage/release under all environmental
  conditions
• Agricultural management effects on US C
  emissions/storage
• Linked ecosystem, resource management, human
  dimensions models to evaluate policy options

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Q5 Future CO2, CH4 concentrations how will C
sources/ sinks change in the future?

• Research needs
• Potential land use/climate/carbon cycle
  interactions/ feedbacks anomalous responses
• Incorporate improved processes into C cycle
  models
• Response of C sources/sinks to increased CO2,
  climate change, inherent natural variability
• Process studies linking observations and
  long-term experiments to identify
  cause-and-effect relationships.
• Products
• Effects of land use (then and now) on C
  storage/release under all environmental
  conditions
• Agricultural management effects on US C
  emissions/storage
• Linked ecosystem, resource management, human
  dimensions models to evaluate policy options

13
Q6 Earth system respond to carbon management
options what scientific information is needed?

• Research needs
• Potential mechanisms (magnitude and longevity) of
  carbon sequestration (terrestrial and marine)
• Effect of changes in CO2, climate variability,
  etc., on C cycle management options
• Scientific, socioeconomic criteria to evaluate C
  cycle sensitivity, and vulnerability/sustainabilit
  y of management options
• Products
• Evaluation of biophysical potential of US
  ecosystems to sequester C assessment of C
  sequestration management options in crops,
  grazing systems.
• Scientific criteria, model tests of C management
  sustain-ability, including system interactions
  and feedbacks