Randy Capps Immigration Studies Program The Urban Institute

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Randy CappsImmigration Studies ProgramThe Urban
Institute

• What Do We Think
• We Know About
• Undocumented Immigration

(Acknowledgments to Jeffrey S. Passel)May 15,
2001
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Undocumented Immigrants

• The 2000 Census Surprise
• How We Make the Estimates
• Some Numbers -- Growth -- Geography
• What Did the Census Change -- Numbers --
  Characteristics

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The 2000 Census Surprise5-7 Million Extra
People
Census Count 281.4 million
Expected Census Count 274.5 million
Demographic Estimate (DA) 279.6 million
A.C.E. Survey Estimate 284.7 million
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The 2000 Census Surprise5-7 Million Extra
People
Note In millions.
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Extra Latinos AsiansBut NOT Californians
9.8
1.1
11.0
Note In millions.
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New Census Figures Imply EvenLarger Numbers of
Immigrants
Percent of total or Population (millions)
28.4 Million -- 00 CPS
26.4 Million -- 99 CPS
30.7 Mil. -- Census 2000 (estimated)
14.8 Percent
10.9 -- Census 2000 (estimated)
9.7 -- 99 CPS
10.3 -- 00 CPS
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Residual Estimates ofUndocumented Immigrants

• Widely Used -- Passel et al. (Urban Institute)
  
• -- Warren (INS) -- Bean et al.
  (Binational Study)
• Undocumented
• Total Foreign-Born (CPS)
• minus
• Legal Foreign-Born (estimate)

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Undocumented in CPS, 1995-2000(Passel, Urban
Institute)
28.4
26.3
26.4
25.8
24.6
24.5
Note In millions.
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Undocumented in CPS, 1995-2000(Passel, Urban
Institute)
5.1 (Warren, INS)
Note In millions.
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Undocumented in CPS, 1995-2000(Passel, Urban
Institute)
5.1 (Warren, INS)
Note In millions.
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Undocumented PopulationClearly at a New High
Millions of Illegal Aliens Living in the U.S.
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Why are the New NumbersSo Much Higher?

• Better Coverage -- Census Publicity --
  Willingness to Respond (Amnesty?) -- Carryover
  to CPS
• Increased or Larger Flow -- Recent Years (1998?
  later) -- Consistent with economic impact
  -- Establishment vs. employee data

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Who is Included in TheseResidual Estimates?

• Undocumented (Most) -- EWIs -- Overstays
• Authorized (Many) -- Asylum Applicants --
  TPS -- Family Members

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Legal Status of Immigrants
Undocumented Aliens (8.5 million) 28
Legal Aliens (LPR) (9.3 million) 30
Legal Nonimmigrants (1.5 million) 5
Refugees, Alien (1.6 million) 5
Naturalized Citizens (9.2 million) 30
Refugees, Naturalized (0.7million) 2
30.7 Million Foreign-Born (Based on March 2000
CPS Census 2000)
(Preliminary) Entered 1980 or later
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New Immigration Centers Emerge
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What are the Potential Implications?

• Uncertainty about pop. size
• Policy considerations
• -- Future border enforcement
• -- Rights for migrants
• -- Another amnesty (?) -- Guest worker
  proposals
• State variations -- California not growing as
  fast -- New immigrant states

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For more information,contact

• Randy Capps, Ph.D.
• Immigration Studies Program
• Population Studies CenterUrban Institute2100 M
  St., N.W.Washington, D.C. 20037

[phone]rcapps_at_ui.urban.org