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The Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge
Getting the genie back in the bottleJillian
Anable, UKERC and The Centre for Transport
Policy, The Robert Gordon UniversityPaige
Mitchell, The Slower Speeds InitiativeRussell
Layberry, UKERC and The Environmental Change
Institute, The University of Oxford
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The perfect policy?

• Guaranteed carbon reduction
• Significant carbon reduction
• Other significant benefits (e.g. safety)
• Equitable
• Can be implemented now
• Cost effective
• Maximises efficiency in the system
• Locks in the benefits of other policies
• Politically deliverable

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The UK Climate Change Programme

• 6.8 MtC savings from the transport sector by 2010
• Total emissions from this sector still way above
  1990 levels

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UK Climate Change Programme Transport policies
Abandoned
Underperforming
?
?
Net savings 1MtC
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UK Climate Change Programme Transport policies
?
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Speed Reduction and Enforcement
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The perfect policy?

• Guaranteed carbon reduction
• Significant carbon reduction
• Other significant benefits (e.g. safety)
• Equitable
• Can be implemented now
• Cost effective
• Maximises efficiency in the system
• Locks in the benefits of other policies
• Politically deliverable

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The Low Carbon Road Transport Challenge Entry Two

• A model of carbon emissions savings by 2010
  from
• (i) enforcing the current top 70 mph speed limit
  on motorways and dual carriageways for all
  4-wheeled vehicles
• AND
• (ii) reducing this to 60 mph

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Guaranteed carbon savings
Diesel Euro II cars (1.4 2l) emit 14 less CO2
at 70mph than at 80mph
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The potential to save carbon
4-wheeled vehicles on 70 mph roads 41 road
transport CO2 8 of all CO2
Ca. 50 of cars exceed the speed limit on
motorways
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Model assumptions

• Motorways and dual carriageways - all 4- wheeled
  vehicles
• Traffic growth figures based on NTM midpoint
  projections for interurban roads to 2010
• No knock-on savings in demand or car purchasing
• Average emissions coefficients reflecting
• (i) fleet technology mix for each year
• (ii) relevant speed distribution (2004 data)
• All distance previously driven above 70mph or
  60mph redistributed to highest remaining band

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Significant carbon savings

• 2.8 - 5.4 reduction in carbon emissions from
  the transport sector in 2010.

Per Annum carbon savings (MtC) Per Annum carbon savings (MtC) Per Annum carbon savings (MtC) Per Annum carbon savings (MtC) Per Annum carbon savings (MtC) Total Cumulative savings in 2010
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Total Cumulative savings in 2010
70mph enforced 0.94 0.96 0.98 1.00 1.00 4.87
60mph enforced 1.81 1.84 1.88 1.91 1.94 9.38
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UK Climate Change Programme Transport policies
speed limit
(1 Mtc)
Equals 15-29 of the total savings expected from
the transport sector by 2010
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Additional carbon savings

1. Reduction in traffic growth
2. Maximising capacity by improving traffic flow
3. Rationalising car design

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Reduction in traffic growth
Additional CO2 reductions under a scenario of
moderate traffic restraint 3 (70 mph) 7
(60 mph)
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Improved traffic flow

• Highway capacity is a function of speed
• Traffic smoothing (e.g. M25)
• Fewer crashes and disruption
• Effect on driving style - combine with ecodriving
  and in car guidance systems
• Renders motorway widening schemes unnecessary?

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Rationalising car design

• Capping speed limits a system boundary
• Safer roads - set the context for lighter, less
  powerful and more efficient vehicles
• Speed enforcement - encourage voluntary uptake of
  speed limiters
• Average top speed of best performing models is
  102mph

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Other benefits

• Early win / certainty no technological
  innovation required

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Why the urgency?
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CO2 concentrations and average temperature change

• Safe concentration has already been exceeded
• Concentration rising by 2ppmv per year
• Stabilisation targets and temperature rise

Stabilisation level Temperature change to 2100 oC
400ppm 1.2 2.8
450ppm 1.3 3.0
550ppm 1.5 3.6
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Other benefits

• Early win / certainty no technological
  innovation required
• Safety benefits 60mph limit would halve deaths
  on motorways
• Cost effectiveness immediate carbon savings are
  cheaper net benefit to society
• Equity reduce the differential between the fast
  and the slow, the rich and the poor

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Public Acceptability

• Least intrusive measure
• Egalitarian
• Straightforward
• Direct benefits fuel savings and operating
  costs
• Time penalties (if any) no worse than other
  measures
• Improved journey reliability
• M25 trials 68 of drivers happy

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The perfect policy?

• Guaranteed carbon reduction
• Significant carbon reduction
• Other significant benefits (e.g. safety)
• Equitable
• Can be implemented now
• Cost effective
• Maximises efficiency in the system
• Locks in the benefits of other policies
• Politically deliverable

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A systems approach
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Conclusions

• NO case for not enforcing 70mph
• 60 mph would bring significant benefits (29 of
• Too good to ignore
• Need a comprehensive
• review of the options
• Whats your excuse?