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Title: Modelling the Timedistance metric and Retail Policy


1
Modelling the Timedistance metric and Retail
Policy
  • Robert Baker
  • University of New England

2
OUTLINE
  • A spatial interaction model
  • Empirically justified for shopping trip behaviour
    and Internet traffic
  • A major ingredient in the Storewars debates of
    1993-2005 on shop trading hours and retail
    landuse policy
  • Applied to measure Internet connectivity and
    capacity in Australia and overseas

3
The Spatial Interaction Model (1985-2006)
4
A symbolic story that has cost the major
supermarket chains at least 10 billion dollars in
lost turnover and exposed the deficiencies in
Australia telecommunication infrastructure
5
Time Discounting Trips
6
Empirically valid? The Regression of Sydney
1980/82, 1988/89 and 1996/98, Armidale 1994 and
Auckland 2000 for ß k2 /M
7
  • 1. Distance Decay
  • 2. Regular Demand
  • 3. Time Drift

4. Limit to spatial interaction at small time
scales
8
Walking to Shop
1. Distance Decay
Driving to Planned Shopping Centre
Internet
9
2. Shopping wave demand Internet demand
10
Frequency
ComponentsShopping Internet Demand
11
3. Time drift Phase regression
across different time zones
12
4. Limit of Spatial Interaction
13
Restructuring the shopping week from the
deregulation of shopping hours in a planned
shopping centre

14
Storewars In Australia
15
Report commissioned by Coles-Myer(1994)
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Storewars 1993-1999 Policy Adviser and Public
Lectures 1. Minister For Industrial Relation and
Minister for Small Business and Regional
Development, NSW Armidale, 11/10/93 (a one hour
conference in Armidale). 2. Media
Adviser,Minister for Industrial Relations, South
Australia, 20/11/93.(50 minute telephone
interview). 3. Address to Labor Caucus, Perth,
10/2/94 (one hour). 4 'The Deregulation
Disaster', WA Retailer Luncheon, Perth, 10/2/94 5
Address to MLCs, Hobart, 15/2/94 (one hour). 6.
Leader of the Opposition, Tasmania, Hobart
16/2/94 (30 minute interview). 7. Address to
Liberal Backbenchers, Tasmania, 16/2/94 (45
minutes). 8. Policy Adviser to the Leader of the
Opposition, Queensland, 25/4/94 (45 minute
telephone interview). 9. Minister for Industrial
Affairs, South Australia, 20/7/94 (written
submission). 10. Trade Practices Commission,
9/8/94 (written submission). 11. Report of the
Committee of Inquiry into Shop Trading Hours-
Ministry of Fair Trading, South Australia,1994,
p.25. 12. Policy Adviser, WA National Party
Trading Hour Submission, 13/12/94 13. Hawkesbury
City Council, Guest Speaker, Special Meeting on
Retail Development, 13/12/94.(written
submission) 14 Policy Adviser, Minister for
Employment, Training and Industrial Relations,
Queensland, 1/3/95 (written submission) 15
Drummoyne Council, Guest Speaker, Special Meeting
on Retail Development, 26/4/95 16 Newcastle Small
Business Forum, Guest Speaker, 19/5/95 (included
in the audience was the Federal Minister for
Small Business, Senator Chris Schadt) 17 Lord
Mayor of Newcastle Luncheon, Guest Speaker,
19/5/95 18 Policy Adviser, Ray Chappell,
Opposition Spokesman on Small Business, NSW,
14/8/95 19 Policy Adviser, Minister for Small
Business, Carl Scully, Armidale, 16/8/95 20
Policy Adviser, COSBOA, Canberra, 23/8/95 21
Written Submission to the Federal Inquiry into
the National Competition Reform Package,
Canberra, 1/9/95 22 Guest Speaker, Armidale City
Council, 4/9/95 23 Guest Speaker, Small Business
Forum, Armidale, 13/9/95 24 Policy Adviser, SBP,
Newcastle, 26-27/9/95 25 Policy Adviser,SBP,
Armidale, 1-10/10/95 26 Submission to the Review
of Trading Hours, Ministry of Business,
Employment and Tourism,Canberra, 9/10/95 27
Queensland Small Business Corporation, Structural
Adjustment in the Retail Sector Project
14/11/95 28 'Retail Freedom and Small Business
Viability', Armidale Rotary, 24/10/95 29
Trading Hours in Armidale, Armidale Quota Club,
7/2/96 30 Guest Speaker, SBP- Singleton Branch,
28/5/96 31 Guest Speaker, Public Meeting on
Sunday Trading, Glen Innes, 17/6/96 33 Policy
Adviser, Chief Ministers Dept, Canberra, Retail
Policy in the ACT, 17/6/96 34 Policy Adviser,
Gail Woodrow, Australian Democrats, Queensland,
19/6/96 35 Toronto Main Street Committee, Guest
Speaker, 18/6/97 36 Small Business People
Meeting, Guest Speaker, 18/6/97 37 Regional and
Rural Committee of the Liberal Party, NSW
Parliament House, Guest Speaker, 26/9/97 38
Tamworth City Council, Guest Speaker, Sunday
Trading, 27/10/97 39 Armidale City Council, Guest
Speaker, Sunday Trading, 17/11/97 40 Bendigo City
Council, Guest Speaker, Deregulation of Trading
Hours and Vacant Shops, 6/3/98 41 Sunday
TradingSocial and Economic Issues Save Our
Sundays Public Meeting Bendigo, 6/3/98 42 Expert
Witness, Sunday Trading Inquiry, Full Bench of
the Industrial Relations Commission, Queensland
20/11/98 43 Expert Witness, Woolworths Appeal
Sunday Trading Tamworth, before Justice Peterson
Industrial Relations Commission, NSW,12/2/99
21
Newspaper and Magazine Articles 1. "Rich shoppers
do it the easy way," The Age, 23/4/91, p.5 2."Is
24-hour trading needed in regional centres?,"
Armidale Express, 11/8/93.p7. 3."Shopping
monopoly," Armidale Express, 18/10/93, p.1. 4.
"SA late trading to go ahead," Adelaide
Advertiser, 29/10/93, p.3 5."Academic warns on
trading hours," The West Australian, 6/11/93,
p.30. 6. "Study urges stop to deregulating
hours," The Age, 8/11/93, p.7 and p.27. 7. "Poor
future for corner store academic," The
Australian Financial Review, 17/11/93, p.29. 8.
"Deregulation a threat to small shops", The
Sydney Morning Herald, 24/11/93, p.28. 9 " Hours
claims disputed", Brisbane Courier Mail,
9/2/94 10. "Gloves off in the Trading Hour
Dispute," Hobart Mercury, 16/2/94, p.6. 11.
"Deregulation a threat to corner stores",
Launceston Examiner, 17/2/94, p.6. 12."
Twenty-four Hour Shopping more than a Matter of
Time," The Weekend Australian, 20/2/94, p.7, 13.
"Trading hours comments flawed," Armidale
Express, Letters to the Editor, 23/3/94, p.5. 14.
"Buying Time in the Fight against Extended
Shopping Hours," The Australian Financial Review,
3/5/94, p.31. 15. "Downside of extended hours has
to be faced", Letters to the Editor, Brisbane
Courier Mail, 9/5/94, p.8. 16. "Sunday decision
enrages retailer", Northern Daily Leader, 9/6/94,
p.2. 17."CBD plan will keep city vital expert,"
Northern Daily Leader, 27/6/94 p.3 18."Sunday
shop tip for city," Adelaide Advertiser, 25/7/94,
pp.1-2. 19. "Retail trading hour deregulation
threatens our equity in society", Armidale
Express, 22/8/94, p.3 20. "Trading Hour
deregulation threatens families and social
equity," Retail Action, October, 1994.p16 21.
"Less choice as deregulation helps major
companies to dominate retail market", Retail
Action, October, 1994. p.17 22."Trading hours
study attacked", West Australian, 13/12/94, p
10 24 "Women suffer under deregulation",
Bundaberg Mail, 28/2/95 25 "Inclad guarantees 'a
must' for Peel St retailers" Northern Daily
Leader, 20/6/95, p2. 26 "Academic calls for
retail survey before complex given go-ahead "
Northern Daily Leader, 23/6/95, p3. 27 "Who are
we to believe?" Letters to the Editor, Northern
Daily Leader, 4/7/95 28 " Super shops" Adelaide
Advertiser Weekend Magazine, 8/7/95, pp.3-4 29
"Battle for the shopping dollar," Sunday
Telegraph, 13/8/95 30" Heavy cost to Sunday
trading" Armidale Express,6/9/95 p.1-2 31
"Extended trading hours push 'economic diabetes,"
Northern Daily Leader,6/9/95, p.3 32 Business
link to states queried, Gold Coast Bulletin 33
"The big three are stalking small business",
Lookout, 10, September, 1995 p. 3. 34 " Urban
blight or trade boon?," Armidale Express,9/10/95
p.1 35 " Trade Act misses the point," Armidale
Express, 9/10/95 p.2 36 "Shopping mauled",
Agenda, Sydney Morning Herald, 22/11/95, p.15. 39
Strip centers hit by longer trading hours
Australian Financial Review, 25/6/96, p.29
22
Newspaper and Magazine Articles (cont) 40
Traders gear for war, Sunday Herald-Sun,
20/7/97, pp.26-27 41 UNE expert calls for public
inquiry, Northern Daily Leader,2/8/97 42
Expert questions Sunday trading, Armidale
Express, 4/8/97, p.1 43 Letter to the Editor,
Armidale Express, 15/8/97 44 Northern Daily
Leader, 1/11/97, p.2 45 Shoppers likely to feel
the effects from Sunday shopping Armidale
Independent 13/11/97 p.2 46 Researcher warns to
weigh up impact on community, Armidale Express,
14/11/97 p.2 47 Trades hall attacks Sunday jobs
claims, Bendigo Advertiser, 25/2/98 p.2 48
Shopping expert visits, Bendigo Advertiser
6/3/98 p.3 49 Baker slams critics, Bendigo
Advertiser 7/3/98 p.2 50 Sunday trading rolls
on, Mayors Column, Bendigo Advertiser,
10/3/98 51 Little shops die, and with them go
lots of jobs, Herald Sun, 18/3/98, p.18 52
Controversial retail centre approved, Northern
Daily Leader, 28/7/98 p.7 53 An open letter to
the people of Tamworth Northern Daily
leader,13/10/98 p.5 54 Trading hours link to NT
food prices, Northern Territory News 4/3/99, p
5 55 Conflicting reports received by
council,Central West Times 2/3/99 p.1 56
Bunnings boils opponents put their case,
Central West Times 2/3/99 p.1 57Plea to test
Sunday shopping, Armidale Express, 16/4/99
p.3 58 One last chance (Supermarket Inquiry),
Dubbo Liberal, 8/7/99, p.1 59 Deal a sure
thing, Northern Daily Leader 2/3/2000 p.2
(Supermarket Developments- Inverell) 60 Small
Victory Council backs small business Namoi
Valley Independent,pp.1-2 (Sunday Trading of
Major Chains- Gunnedah ) 61 Assessing citys
retail health The Examiner (Grafton) 7/10/2000
p. 2 (Retail Study of Grafton) 64 Answers
wanted on DIR Sunday trading decision, Northern
Daily Leader 2/11/2000 p.3 (Sunday Trading) 65
Call for Explanation on Sunday Trading Decision
Namoi Valley Independent, 2/11/2000 p. 2.
23
  • TV Appearances
  • 1. 7.30 Report, ABC Perth,7/2/94.
  • 2. 9 News, Perth, 7/2/94.
  • 3. 10 News, Perth, 7/2/94.
  • 4. 9 News, Hobart, 15/2/94.
  • 5. 7.30 Report, Hobart,15/2/94.
  • 6. NBN News 17/8/94
  • Prime News, 17/8/94
  • 8. Small Business Show, Channel 9
  • Sydney, 28/5/95.
  • 9 NBN News, 6/9/95
  • 10 NBN News, 14/9/95
  • 11 NBN News, 9/10/95
  • 12 Prime News,9/10/95
  • 13 NBN News, 11/10/95
  • 14 NBN News,7/11/95
  • 15 Prime News, 7/11/95
  • 16 NBN News 31/11/96
  • 17 Prime News, 31/11/96

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26
Major Trading Hour Test Cases
  • ACT Retail Hours Act 1996 (supermarkets close at
    7.00pm in Group Centres)
  • Bendigo Referendum 31/3/98
  • Sunday Trading Inquiry Southeast Queensland, Full
    Bench of the Industrial Relations Commission,
    Queensland 20/11/98
  • Woolworths Appeal Sunday Trading Tamworth, NSW,
    before Justice Peterson Industrial Relations
    Commission, NSW,12/2/99
  • Sunday Trading Inquiry for Brisbane and
    Near-metropolitan Areas, Full Bench of the
    Industrial Relations Commission, Queensland
    21/12/01 only City of Brisbane (only Brisbane
    CBD)
  • Parliamentary Select Committee on Retail Hours in
    South Australia 8/7/03 (No changes until further
    research)
  • West Australia Trading Hour Referendum 26/2/05
  • Sunday Trading Inquiry for Regional Queensland,
    Full Bench of the Industrial Relations
    Commission, Queensland 15/9/05

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The deregulation of shopping hours not only
changes when and how often people shop but
where consumption occurs
Application to Retail Landuse Policy

29
198/89
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  • Cessnock

33
Figure 4.58 Retail Decay, Vincent St (Main
Street) Cessnock, 30/12/03
34
Figure 4.59 Second Hand Store, Local MPs Offices
and a vacant Shop Vincent Street Cessnock 31/12/03
35
Figure 4.60 Urban decay (a War Zone) in Vincent
Street, Cessnock with chains of vacant shops on
both sides of the street. Guess what Number 14
is?
36
  • Dubbo

37
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Figure 4.2 Vacant shops in Main St Dubbo
(Macquarie St)
38
8
9
Figure 4.3 A chain of vacant shops in Macquarie
St at the entrance of the CBD (7) with the only
tenancy an Adult Shop (8)
39
12
13
14
Figure 4.5 Vacant Shops Opposite Woolworths,
Riverdale Centre, Macquarie St
40
Figure 4.6 Vacant shops, Talbragar St Dubbo (Main
Street)
41
  • Maitland

42
Figure 4.23 Maitland Heritage Mall
01/01/04
43
Figure 4.24 Brasn Things Closing Down,
Maitland Heritage Mall, 01/01/04
44
1st January 2004
30th March 2005
Figure 4.25 Long term vacant shop problem (High
Street north)
45
Figure 4.26 Long term vacant shops 2 (Maitland
Heritage Mall)
30th March 2005
46
Figure 4.27 Vacant shops, Maitland Heritage Mall
30/03/05
47
Figure 4.29 Clusters of vacant shops, Maitland
Heritage Mall 30/03/05
48
Figure 4.30 Class 4 Vacant shop in Hunter Mall
30/03/05
49
  • Gunnedah

50
Figure 4.45 A 4000 sq m. Woolworths supermarket
(116) on the western edge of the Gunnedah CBD
trading long hours seven days-a-week (28/0305)
51
Figure 4.46 Vacant shops Condadilly Street (Main
Street) Gunnedah, 28/03/05
52
Figure 4.47 A Chain of vacant shops Condadilly
Street, Gunnedah 28/03/05
53
Figure 4.48 Vacant shops and remnants therein in
Maquis and Chandos Streets, Gunnedah, 28/03/05
54
  • Kempsey

55
Figure 4.53 Clyde Street Mall providing access
to Kempsey Mall
Figure 4.54 A Chain of vacant shops and
relocations in Belgrave St, Kempsey 2003.
56
Figure 4.52 Vacant shops in Kempsey Mall,
November 2003, 12 months after the opening of Big
W trading seven days a-week at the edge-of-town.
57
Landuse Policy Implications
  • Draft Retail Policy for the Greater Metropolitan
    Region of NSW (1996) Department of Urban Affairs
    and Planning
  • Rural and Regional Retail Issues Problems and
    Perspectives (2005)
  • Retail Definitions
  • Development Guidelines

58
Internet traffic
  • Applying the model to the Stanford Linear
    Accelerator Data Set (1998-2004)

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The Melbourne monitoring site had the worst
connectivity problem in the Stanford network in
2004
  • Reasons
  • Island Effect
  • Geographic Remoteness
  • Poor network configuration
  • Broadband (1.5 -2.5 Mg/s Aust 2.5- 8 Mg/s US)

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This limit has significant implications
For example In the US, Amazon.com has
discovered that because of this distance decay
effect, it has had to build a network of
distribution centres (15 in North America),
rather than rely on a centralised distribution
centre in Seattle. The problem of the Telstra
broadband rollout in regional areas (a distance
decay effect)
  • .

64
Conclusion
  • The model has made a significant contribution to
    public policy at different scales in both time
    and landuse planning
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