Comparative Methods II: Systems Analysis and Sustainability Indicators

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Comparative Methods II Systems Analysis and
Sustainability Indicators

• Asim Zia
• Environmental Studies 133
• Alternative Energy Strategies
• San Jose State University
• Spring 2007

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Overview

• Complex Systems Dynamics
• Comparative Decision Algorithms
• Lifecycle analysis (covered in the last class)
• Simulation models
• Risk-based models
• Multiple Criteria Decision Making Models
• Fuzzy Models and Soft Systems
• Sustainability Indicators

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Sustainability Amidst Complexity Complex Systems
Dynamics (CSD)
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Trade-offs in Values and Goals
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Some landmark books on CSD

• Complex Systems Dynamics (Santa Fe Institute
  Studies in the Sciences of Complexity)
  (Paperback) by Gerard Weisbuch
• Business Dynamics Systems Thinking and Modeling
  for a Complex World with CD-ROM by John Sterman
  and John D. Sterman

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Dynamics of Complex Systems (Studies in
Nonlinearity) by Yaneer Bar-Yam

• A central goal of this book is to develop models
  and modeling techniques that are useful when
  applied to all complex systems. This is done by
  adopting both analytic tools, including
  statistical mechanics and stochastic dynamics,
  and computer simulation techniques, such as
  cellular automata and Monte Carlo. In four sets
  of paired, self-contained chapters, Yaneer
  Bar-Yam discusses complex systems in the context
  of neural networks, protein folding, living
  organisms, and finally, human civilization
  itself. He explores fundamental questions about
  the structure, dynamics, evolution, development
  and quantitative complexity that apply to all
  complex systems.

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Simulation models

• Aim at mathematically representing the system
  being studied and simulating system operations
  over time or under varying conditions or
  scenarios
• Examples
• National Energy Modeling System used by DOE to
  forecast energy demand
• IPCC to forecast global climate change under
  various scenarios (including energy use)

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National Energy Modeling Systemhttp//www.eia.doe
.gov/oiaf/aeo/overview/index.html

• Overall, NEMS represents the behavior of energy
  markets and their interactions with the U.S.
  economy.
• The system reflects market economics, industry
  structure, and existing energy policies and
  regulations that influence market behavior.

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National Energy Modeling System
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NEMS Simulation Forecast
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IPCC Simulation Frameworkwww.ipcc.ch
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IPCC Scenario Simulations
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IPCC Simulation Forecast
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IPCC Simulation Forecast
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IPCC Simulation Forecast
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IPCC Simulation Forecast
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IPCC 2001 simulation forecast
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Risk Based Models
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Hazard
Shortens average life span in the United States by
Poverty
7-10 years
Born male
7.5 years
Smoking
6-10 years
Overweight (35)
6 years
Unmarried
5 years
2 years
Overweight (15)
Spouse smoking
1 year
Driving
7 months
Air pollution
5 months
Alcohol
5 months
Drug abuse
4 months
Flu
4 months
AIDS
3 months
Air Pollution
2 months
Drowning
1 month
Pesticides
1 month
Fire
1 month
Natural radiation
8 days
5 days
Medical X rays
Oral contraceptives
5 days
Toxic waste
4 days
Flying
1 day
Hurricanes, tornadoes
1 day
Living lifetime near nuclear plant
10 hours
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Multiple Criteria Decision Making Models
Cardinal Utility

• Simple Additive Weighting (SAW)
• Weighted Product
• TOPSIS
• ELECTRE
• Median Ranking Model
• Analytical Heirarchical Process (AHP)

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Multiple Criteria Decision Making Models Ordinal
Utility

• Lexicographic Method
• Elimination by Aspect
• Conjunctive/Disjunctive Method
• Maximin and Maximax
• Dominance

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MCDM (SAW method)

• Choose an alternative that maximizes Vi, for
  i1,2,.m alternatives
• Vi ?j1n wjrij
• Where wj is weighting function for j
  attributes/criteria and rij is a normalized value
  scale for ith alternative and jth criteria

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Fuzzy Models and Soft Systems

• develop qualitative concepts to articulate ways
  of thinking about complexity
• Soft Systems provide an alternative to
  mathematically-based concepts
• Soft Systems Methodology in Action by Peter
  Checkland, Jim Scholes
• Soft Systems Methodology Conceptual Model
  Building and Its Contribution by Brian Wilson

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Sustainability Indicators

• Stock Indicators
• Flow Indicators
• Composite or synoptic indicators Indicators e.g.
  ecological footprint, carbon footprint
• Multiattribute indicators e.g. total national
  capital TNC, Green GNP,
• Distributional Indicators e.g. GINI coefficient

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Carbon footprint of energy consumption as a
sustainability indicator
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Carbon footprint (million tons/year)