The Future of Solar in NWF

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The Future of Solar in NWF Thomas
Knighten Energy Efficiency Consultant
(850) 980 -4884
tknighten_at_sre3.com
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About SRE

• Founded in 2006, SRE provides comprehensive
  energy solutions for homeowners, business, and
  government.
• Mission Lower utility bills, reduce
  environmental impacts, and increase energy
  reliability and independence.
• Largest Distributed Energy Services Company
  (DESCO) or
• on-site generation provider in US.
• Technology and vendor agnostic, SRE provides the
  best of breed in products and services across the
  renewable energy and energy efficiency
  industries.
• Offices in 6 states, growing nationwide. See
  www.sre3.com.

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National to Local View

• Transition to Renewable Energy
• Federal and State Initiatives
• Potential for Northwest Florida
• Solar Quotes of The Day

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Transition to Renewable Energy

• Estimated 50 increase in US electricity demand
  by 2030
• Shift in subsidies, rebates from carbon-based to
  RE generation
• New carbon tax legislation and regulations
  pending
• Diversity of fuel sources for energy
  independence, security
• Political popular support for clean, new energy
  economy
• Cost of solar electricity near grid parity the
  holy grail
• (Source WSJ, US DOE, SEIA, FL PSC)

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Federal and State Initiatives

• National Renewable Electricity Standard (RES/RPS)
  mandatory 20 from RE sources by 2020
  (identical to Florida target).
• Draft legislation for carbon emissions
  regulation, taxation and trading. 647M in tax
  revenues from Cap and Trade system.
• 28 states D.C. have RPS in place Florida does
  not. Gov. Crist plan for RPS stalled in April
  2009 Florida legislative session.
• Gainesville, FL solar Feed-In-Tariff first in US.
  GRU pays above market rate 20-year contract to
  feed solar electricity into grid.
• US DOE 30.4M allocation to Governors Energy
  Office for state local projects in FY2009-2010.
  9.4M for Solar Rebate Program.
• Florida solar rebate of 4/watt up to 20K for
  residential, 100K for commercial, non-profit
  organizations, government entity.
• (Source WSJ, US DOE, SEIA, FL PSC)

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Solar Insolation Map

Southwest has the largest solar resource in the
continental US, but Florida is not very far
behind with an average of 5.0 to 5.5 kWh/m2/day
of solar radiation. (Courtesy of National
Renewable Energy Laboratory)
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Potential for Northwest Florida

• Solar technologies have the largest renewable
  energy technical
• potential in Florida. (Navigant Consulting
  Report, Nov. 24, 2008)
• 20 RE by 2020 could create 37,000 new jobs,
  generate more than 16 billion in economic
  activity by 2025, and cut greenhouse gas
  emissions by 319 million tons. (Florida DEP
  Study, May 2009)
• NWF in early adoption stage of solar
  technology. Demographics, education and awareness
  will accelerate adoption.
• Projected CAGR of 40 through 2013 requires
  robust training program for solar industry
  technicians to avoid labor shortage.
• Strategic Plan Progressive Leadership Trained
  Work Force Opportunity to accelerate economic
  engine of local solar industry.
• (Source WSJ, US DOE, SEIA, FL PSC)

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Solar Photovoltaic System Economics

• Total 5.0 kW System Cost 36,728 (7.34 Per
  Installed Watt)
• Florida Rebate (4/Watt) -20,000 (Maximum for
  Residence)
• 16,728
• 30 Federal Tax Credit -11,018 (Based on
  Total System Cost)
• Net Cost 5,710 (15.5 of Total System
  Cost)
• 30-Year System Life Financial Analysis
• Total Solar Electricity AC Production 185,919
  kWh
• Federal Tax Rate 34
• Discount Rate 4
• Utility Company Rate (Effective 07/01) 0.15/kWh
• Annual Electricity Escalation Rate 15
• Net Present Value 177,786
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR) on Investment 36.5
• Payback in Years 4
• Solar Fixed Rate Equivalent Electricity 0.04/kWh
  

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What Power Plant Would You Build Today?

• Coal
• Pros Widely available in the US for decades to
  come inexpensive, although
• doubled in price last year before coming back
  down to current price
• Cons Dirtiest source of power with release of
  mercury, sulfur and nitrogen
• oxides, large amount of CO2 emissions (double
  that of natural gas)
• Natural Gas
• Pros Also very abundant in the US and Canada
  but doubled in price last year
• much cleaner than coal with 50 less CO2
  emissions
• Cons High CO2 emissions, significant price
  hikes are likely
• Nuclear
• Pros No CO2 emissions, uranium fuel is
  relatively inexpensive (price
• increased ten-fold in the past few years still
  relatively low percentage of
• operating costs for a nuclear power plant)

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Solar Quotes of The Day

• Id put my money on the sun and solar energy.
  What a source of power! I hope we dont have to
  wait until oil and coal run out before we tackle
  that. (Thomas Edison,1931, shortly before he
  died, the inventor told his friends Henry Ford
  and Harvey Firestone)
• The inevitable shift to solar energy will
  transform everyday life as radically as did the
  last century's revolutions in information and
  communication technologies. In the past three
  decades, computers and telephones have become
  decentralized and wireless. Solar energy will do
  the same for the energy industry, using nearly
  identical semiconductor technologies and for the
  same economic reasons, by harnessing the nearly
  limitless energy from the sun.
• (The Solar Revolution, Travis Bradford,
  Author, Harvard MBA)
• Solar power and wind power will continue to
  take market share, as government subsidies
  increase and economies of scale reduce production
  costs. Alternative energy will remain a drop in
  the bucket compared to the vast fossil fuel-based
  energy infrastructure, but the upside of that is
  enormous long-term growth potential. (Timothy
  Lutts, Investment Analyst)