NOAA-EPA

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• NOAA-EPAs National Air Quality Forecast
  Capability
• Progress and Plans
• October 17, 2006
• Paula M. Davidson1, Nelson Seaman1, Jeff
  McQueen1, Rohit Mathur1,2, Roland Draxler1,
  Richard Wayland2
• 1National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
  (NOAA)
• 2US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)

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Outline

• Overview of Current Capability
• Progress in 2006 toward expanded capabilities
• Looking ahead

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National Air Quality Forecast Capability
End-to-End Operational Capability
Model Components Linked numerical prediction
system Operationally integrated on NCEPs
supercomputer NCEP mesoscale NWP WRF-NMM
NOAA/EPA community multiscale model for AQ CMAQ
Observational Input NWS real-time weather
observations EPA emissions inventory
Gridded forecast guidance products On NWS
Telecommunications Gateway and EPA
servers Updated 2x daily Verification basis
EPA/AIRNow compilation ground-level ozone
observations Customer outreach/feedback StateLoc
al AQ forecasters coordinated with EPA Public and
Private Sector AQ constituents
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Operational AQ forecast guidancewww.weather.gov/
aq
Further informationwww.nws.noaaa.gov/ost/air_qua
lity
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Experimental Products Coast-to-coast Ozone,
Smoke Forecast Guidance
www.weather.gov/aq-expr
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Testing Domain Summer 2006
Operational EUS 3x
Experimental CONUS 5X
265 grid cells
142
Northeast 1x Domain
259 grid cells
166
CONUS 5x Domain
East 3x Domain
268 grid cells
442 grid cells
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Testing Summary Summer, 2006

• Ozone Experimental testing beginning June, 2006
  over CONUS
• New WRF-CMAQ linkage, improved vertical coupling
  with s-P adopted in CMAQ/WRF
• Updates to emissions (esp mobile and EGU sources)
• ACM mixing in clouds
• Smoke Experimental testing beginning March,
  2006
• Fire Locations and verification based on
  satellite observations
• Fire emissions estimates from USFS (BlueSky)
• HYSPLIT/NAM transport
• Aerosols Developmental testing providing
  comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations
• CMAQ (aerosol option)
• Qualitative underprediction consistent with
  missing source inputs

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Preliminary Analysis of Ozone Predictions
Summer, 2006
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Testing Challenges Summer, 2006
1. Comparison of Operational and Experimental
testing Before Isoprene correction for 5X
E US (3X) vs. CONUS (5X) After Isoprene
correction for 5X
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Ozone Episode in Eastern US July 16-19, 2006
July 16
July 17
July 18
July 20
July 19
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Experimental Testing Summary OzoneSummer, 2006

• Diagnosing and addressing issues not uncovered
  with retrospective testing?
• WRF implementation into NAM June 20
• Relative to Eta Similar performance in Eastern
  US, but cooler, wetter in Western US ? Lower
  surface O3
• WRF upgrade/correction August 15
• Increased mixing more vertical mixing in stable
  PBL , horizontal mixing in complex terrain
  (mountains and along coast)
• Correction impacts localized more diffuse O3
  gradients
• Operational (3X) ozone WRF-Post Processor.
• T-Interpolation (vertical in WRF-post) error ?
  Slightly higher ozone
• Corrected July 28. Impact slightly reduced
  surface O3
• Experimental (5X) ozone PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections
  
• Experimental (5X) Ozone and Developmental
  Aerosols Biogenic VOCs incorrectly
  underestimated ? Much lower surface O3
• Corrected August 5. Impact Much increased
  surface O3
• (3X and 5X) PREMAQ/CMAQ corrections
• Some emissions components left from 2005
  numerics (arrays undefined, Jacobian error)
• Corrected August 5 September 5. Minor
  (localized) impacts

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Sample Smoke Evaluation - April 13, 2006
NAM/HYSPLIT 1-d Forecast HMS Analysis
12 -14 UTC
HYSPLIT Analysis
HYSPLIT 24-hr Forecast
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WRF-HYSPLIT 24-h Smoke PredictionsPreliminary
Evaluation, 2006
14 September 2006 WRF-HYSPLIT 24h (blue) vs HMS
(orange)
Preliminary Verification statistics
FMS Threshold 1ug/m3 in Column Initial target
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Preliminary Aerosol Predictions Summer, 2006
July 25, 2006
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Testing Summary Summer, 2006

• Ozone Extensive retrospective testing with
  developmental NAM-CMAQ system during Winter and
  Spring still left some surprises
• Experimental (5X) ozone
• Large under-predictions especially in the west
  systematically lower ozone than operational (3)
  in East
• Operational (3X) ozone
• Some over-predictions for cool, cloudy conditions
• Smoke Experimental testing providing basis for
  systematic near-real time evaluations with
  satellite observations
• Results promising for predicted smoke transport,
  compared to HMS smoke analyses (independent,
  analyst-prepared)
• Development of objective smoke analyses for
  near-real time verification nearly complete
• Aerosols Developmental testing providing
  comprehensive dataset for diagnostic evaluations
• Underprediction common consistent with missing
  source inputs

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National AQF CapabilityLooking ahead

• Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally
  (WRF-CMAQ) over CONUS (near-term)
• Improving day-to-day performance, especially in
  the west
• Transitioning experimental products to operations
• Expanded products to be tested
• Ozone
• Further development to more closely couple AQ
  with WRF weather output examine impacts of
  vertical resolution, vertical mixing treatments,
  horizontal boundary conditions
• Testing over all 50 states
• Particulate matter components
• Smoke from large fires objective verification
  baseline transition to operations
• Aerosols predicted from anthropogenic source
  emissions in inventories continued
  development/testing/analysis

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National Air Quality Forecast CapabilityPhased
Growth

• Early Implementations 1-day forecast guidance
  for ozone
• Developed and deployed initially for Northeastern
  US, September 2004
• Expanded over Eastern US, Aug 2005

• Near-Term targets
• Implement ozone guidance over CONUS Summer 2007
• Deploy Nationwide (AK HI) target by 2009
• Longer range (within 10 years)
• Develop and implement capability to forecast
  particulate matter (PM)
• Particulate size lt 2.5 microns
• Data assimilation for air quality
• Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours
• Include broader range of significant pollutants

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• Appendix

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National AQF Capability Status October, 2006

• Ozone forecast guidance produced operationally
  (WRF-CMAQ)
• Eastern US. 2X daily, 12km grid resolution,
  hourly predictions, through midnight next day.
  Ground-level ozone concentrations
• On NOAA/NWS servers www.weather.gov/aq
• On EPAs AIRNow website, displayed as AQ Index
  values
• Eta was replaced in the NAM by WRF(NMM) in June,
  2006
• Achieving performance targets for accuracy,
  reliability
• Expanded products being tested in FY06
• Ozone
• CONUS domain, experimentally available from
  June, 2006
• Further developmental work to couple AQ more
  closely with WRF weather output
• Particulate matter components
• Smoke from large fires, experimentally available
  (CONUS) from March 2006
• Transport prediction qualitative. USFS fire
  emissions, passive transport.
• Aerosols produced/transported sources from
  anthropogenic emissions in climatologic
  inventories in developmental testing (CONUS)
  from June, 2006