CANDIDATE SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE ALTERNATIVES

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• CANDIDATE SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE ALTERNATIVES
• ---
• Developed by Space Weather Architecture
  Alternative Working Group 3
• ---
• As Of
• 19 May 1998

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LIST AND STATUS OF ARCHITECTURE ALTERNATIVES

• Number Architecture Purpose
• 3-1 To Specify State of Ionosphere/Magnetosphere
  in Order to Alert/Specify/Forecast the State of
  the Ionosphere/ Magnetosphere
• 3-2 To Give 1-4 Day Warnings on Geomagnetic
  Quiet, Magnetic Storms, Lack of
  Scintillations/High Scintillations
• 3-3 To Give 1-4 Day Warnings on Magnetic Storms,
  Radiation Belt Increases, Scintillations
• 3-4 To Give 2 Day - 2 Week Warnings on Magnetic
  Storms (Radiation Belt Changes, Scintillations),
  Days - Weeks Predictions on Solar Flares (X-Rays,
  Radio, Energetic Particles)
• 3-5 Maximum Mitigation
• 3-6 Fold Space Weather Impacts Into Operational
  Planning Cycle
• 3-7 Make a Difference
• 3-8 Commercially Based Space Weather Support
  System
• 3-9 Evolve Current Architecture
• 3-10 Total Integration of Space Weather into
  Operations
• 3-11 Maximize Development and Implementation of
  Space Weather Science and Technology

Description Features Trade Axis 3-1 -
Partial Partial To be supplied 3-2 - Partial To
be supplied To be supplied 3-3 - Partial To be
supplied To be supplied 3-4 - Partial To be
supplied To be supplied 3-5 - Complete Complete C
omplete 3-6 - Partial Partial Partial 3-7 -
Partial Partial Partial 3-8 - Complete To be
supplied Partial 3-9 - Complete To be
supplied Partial 3-10 - Partial Complete To be
supplied 3-11 - Complete Complete Complete
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-1) Maximum
Mitigation PURPOSE To Specify State of the
Ionosphere/Magnetosphere in Order to
Alert/Specify/Forecast the State of the
Ionosphere/Magnetosphere
Operational Description
Support Function
Space-based Observations
Users
Global in-situ measurements from larger
constellations of satellites (small sensors on
operational satellites)
Data Service Center Space Based/Ground Based
Ground-based Observations
Archive (Climatology)
Dense TEC network
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-1) Maximum
Mitigation PURPOSE To Specify State of the
Ionosphere/Magnetosphere in Order to
Alert/Specify/Forecast the State of the
Ionosphere/Magnetosphere

• FEATURES
• One center means one data format
• Fusion of observed to forecast fields
• User knows where satellite is and how it is
  affected

• CONOPS
• Near real-time specification 48/day
• Forecasts at 1, 3, 6, 24, 48 hours
• Generic planning products (USA Today US WX)
• All data - always accessible to all users
• Requirements driven
• Space Tasking Orders include space weather

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
• Robust Communications
• Launch is cheap
• Trained customer/user

• ISSUES
• Satellite protection
• Satellite flexibility
• Cost is not an issue

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-1) Maximum
Mitigation PURPOSE To Specify State of the
Ionosphere/Magnetosphere in Order to
Alert/Specify/Forecast the State of the
Ionosphere/Magnetosphere

• PROS

TRADE AXES

• CONS

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-2) WOW PURPOSE
To Give 1-4 Day Warnings on Geomagnetic Quiet,
Magnetic Storms, Lack of Scintillations/High
Scintillations
Operational Description
55th - (AFSPC) SEC
Microsats trailing earth in 1-AU orbits
Technology assessment of predictability
On-board image recognition program
Simple Data Processing
Ground-based platforms
Archiving
Magnetic storm predictor / DS-5, SME1 technology
is available now. MSP (2 microsats/microinstrumen
t). Can be done for 25M, 10 cost of solar
stereo.
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-2) WOW PURPOSE
To Give 1-4 Day Warnings on Geomagnetic Quiet,
Magnetic Storms, Lack of Scintillations/High
Scintillations

• CONOPS

• FEATURES

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS

• ISSUES

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-2) WOW PURPOSE
To Give 1-4 Day Warnings on Geomagnetic Quiet,
Magnetic Storms, Lack of Scintillations/High
Scintillations

• PROS

TRADE AXES

• CONS

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-3) Stage I
PURPOSE To Give 1-4 Day Warnings on Magnetic
Storms, Radiation Belt Increases, Scintillations

• FEATURES

• CONOPS

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS

• ISSUES

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-3) Stage I
PURPOSE To Give 1-4 Day Warnings on Magnetic
Storms, Radiation Belt Increases, Scintillations
TRADE AXES

• PROS

• CONS

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-4) Stage II
PURPOSE To Give 2 Day - 2 Week Warnings on
Magnetic Storms (Radiation Belt Changes,
Scintillations), Days - Weeks Predictions on
Solar Flares (X-Rays, Radio, Energetic Particles)
Operational Description
55th - (AFSPC) SEC
Near earth satellites
Technology assessment of predictability
Data Processing Apply Advanced Prediction
Programs (Not currently available)
Ground-based data platforms
Archiving
This assumes that flares/CMEs can be predicted
before they happen (we cant do this now). Need
only ground-based data, but also satellite
observations where visibility is a problem
(x-rays, IR, particles, etc.).
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-4) Stage II
PURPOSE To Give 2 Day - 2 Week Warnings on
Magnetic Storms (Radiation Belt Changes,
Scintillations), Days - Weeks Predictions on
Solar Flares (X-Rays, Radio, Energetic Particles)

• CONOPS

• FEATURES

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS

• ISSUES

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-4) Stage II
PURPOSE To Give 2 Day - 2 Week Warnings on
Magnetic Storms (Radiation Belt Changes,
Scintillations), Days - Weeks Predictions on
Solar Flares (X-Rays, Radio, Energetic Particles)
TRADE AXES

• PROS

• CONS

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-5) PURPOSE
Maximum Mitigation
Operational Description
S/C Sensors and Mitigation Packages
Users
Feeds Everyone
Messages
Queries
Complaints
Space Platforms Privately Owned
Internet
Technology Development
Requests
Deficiencies
Data
Model Updates
Coordination
Space Weather Central Nowcast and Forecast
product computation and packaging
Data
Data
Data
Archiving
Ground platforms Privately Owned
Requests
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-5) PURPOSE
Maximum Mitigation

• FEATURES
• Stereo observations of CMEs and other solar
  phenomenon
• Worldwide TEC measurements (Satellites and
  ground)
• Pole-sitter auroral observers
• In-situ radiation measurements on
  satellites/auto mitigation

• CONOPS
• Joint Space Weather Central (DoD/NOAA Combined)
• Observations provided by privatized firms
• Product distribution via Internet

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
• All necessary algorithms developed
• Downlink bandwidth available

• ISSUES
• Exploitation potential
• Attack/natural phenomenon determination

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-5) PURPOSE
Maximum Mitigation

• PROS
• Comprehensive

TRADE AXES
Government
Private
X
Endure
Exploit
X
Ground
Space
X

• CONS
• Expensive

Distributed Processing In-situ
Processing
X
Specialized
Generalized
X
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-6) PURPOSE Fold
Space Weather Impacts Into Operational Planning
Cycle
Operational Description
Warfighter - Users
Raw Data
Space Weather Sensors (Observations)
Products Data
SPO - Sustainment, Technology Enhancement
Space or Ground Based
Requirements
Operational Space Weather Centers (leveraged)
Archival
Minimal Impact
Warning Functions vice Tailored Products. In
normalized operations requirements are funneled
through MAJCOM, not unit. However, functions at
center level may circumvent bureaucracy.
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE(3-6) PURPOSE Fold
Space Weather Impacts Into Operational Planning
Cycle

• FEATURES
• Graphics based
• Tied to decision matrices
• Warfighter friendly/interactive
• Portable
• Open architecture

• CONOPS
• Warfighter determines requirements (Requirements
  Driven)
• Warfighter Pull not push from science
• Space weather part of Space Tasking Order
• Current space weather and forecasts make a
  difference to go/no-go
• Continuous feedback cycle

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
• High speed, dependable communications
• Sufficient manpower for mission
• Correct training/level of expertise
• Sufficient observational data
• Dependable and relevant models

• ISSUES
• Division of labor
• Leveraging of civil and government expertise
• Funding
• DoD manning
• Security
• Training/Education

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE(3-6) PURPOSE Fold
Space Weather Impacts Into Operational Planning
Cycle

• PROS

TRADE AXES
Push
Pull
X
Ground Obs
Space Obs
X
Centralized Processing On-board
Processing
X

• CONS

Government Only Commercial
Only
X
Imager Raw Data Model
Output
Operator
Scientist
Operational Squadron Strategic
Center
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-7) PURPOSE Make a
Difference
Operational Description
Note - Shaded areas indicate non real-time
operational support
NET
Feedback
Space-based platforms
Sensor SPOs
Users
Requests
Technology Centers - Training - Models - 6.1 -
6.3 work
On-board image recognition program
Requests
- Training - Models
Tech Centers
Go/No-go Recommendations
Validate Requests
Space Weather Support Centers
Ground-based platforms
Sensor SPOs
Feedback
Shared Data
- Training - Models/Data
Feedback
Archive
Platform SPOs - Sustainment (Training) - Battle
Labs
International Support
Note - Space Weather technology centers need to
have direct interface to the support centers. To
expect them to go through all SPOs as a middle
man is ludicrous. The ball will get dropped as a
result. Need a central focal point like the
support centers to educate the users and SPOs.
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-7) PURPOSE Make a
Difference

• FEATURES
• Models/tools validated
• Sophisticated space weather sensors

• CONOPS
• Near real-time notification
• Determine mission impact
• Cope and avoid/alert

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS

• ISSUES
• Timely dispersal of data (critical path)

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-7) PURPOSE Make a
Difference
Worse TRADE AXES
Better

• PROS

Cost - Military Assets Commercial
Assets
Info/Data Vulnerability - Commercial
Assets Military Assets
Timely Access - Fewer Sensors
More Sensors
Physical Vulnerability - Space Assets
Ground Assets

• CONS

Spoofable - Ground Assets
Space Assets
Priority - Commercial
Military
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-8) PURPOSE
Commercially Based Space Weather Support System
Operational Description
Training/Education Programs
Requests
Products
Users
Research Centers
Requests
- Requests - Feedback
Products
Space-based Observations
Tasking
Data Requests
Tasking
Observations
Commercial/Government Training/Education Centers
Commercial Operations Support Center
Training Program
Observations
Ground-based Observations
Tasking
DoD Classified Operations Support Center
Archive
Observations
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE(3-8) PURPOSE
Commercially Based Space Weather Support System

• FEATURES

• CONOPS

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS

• ISSUES

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-8) PURPOSE
Commercially Based Space Weather Support System

• PROS

TRADE AXES
Govt
Commercial Ops Center
Ops Center
X
Ground Based
Space Based Observations
Observations
X
Central
Distributed Processing
Processing
X
Government
Commercial Training/Ed
Training/Ed

• CONS

X
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-9) PURPOSE
Evolve Current Architecture
Operational Description
Space Based Element
Ground Based Element
User
User
- Data Collection - National/International
- Data Collection - National/International
Comm Element
Comm Element
Data Delivery
Data Delivery
Air Force Weather
Central Site - Data Processing - Analysis -
Forecasting - Warning
User
MAJCOMs
Comm Element
Archive Center
Acquisition and Sustainment - Maintain - Train -
Procure - Infuse Technology - Verify/Validate
Comm Link
Comm Element
Data Delivery
User
User - Data Processing - Analysis - Forecasting -
Warning
Technology Centers
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-9) PURPOSE
Evolve Current Architecture

• FEATURES

• CONOPS

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS

• ISSUES

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-9) PURPOSE
Evolve Current Architecture

• PROS

TRADE AXES
National
International
X
Central
Distributed
X
Ground
Space
X

• CONS

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-10) PURPOSE
Total Integration of Space Weather into Operations
Operational Description
Users - More Sophisticated Systems
Technology Center
Space Based Observations
Operational Models to use Space Weather
Characteristics
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-10) PURPOSE
Total Integration of Space Weather into Operations

• FEATURES
• More rapid adaptation to space weather
  conditions
• Better long-term predictions (Forecasts)

• CONOPS
• Information Push from data sources to users in
  near real-time for Nowcast projections
• Information Push from data sources to support
  centers for analysis, processing, and product
  preparation for Forecast projections
• Product Pull from users to support centers

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
• Educated users, well trained in space weather
  data interpretation
• Automated processing of space weather data to
  impact user operations (e.g., Communications
  systems developed to modify protocols to adapt to
  space weather conditions

• ISSUES
• Research progress to associate space weather
  parameters to improved operating procedures
• Space weather considered in developing user
  systems

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-10) PURPOSE
Total Integration of Space Weather into Operations

• PROS

TRADE AXES

• CONS

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-11) PURPOSE
Maximize Development and Implementation of Space
Weather Science and Technology
Operational Description
Industry
Government and Civilian Laboratories
Universities
Centralized Steering Board (Coordination, Policy,
Direction)
International
U.S. Military
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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-11) PURPOSE
Maximize Development and Implementation of Space
Weather Science and Technology

• FEATURES
• Open exchange of scientific information
• Collaboration of areas of expertise

• CONOPS
• Focus scientific and commercial power to advance
  space weather

• CRITICAL ASSUMPTIONS
• Universal recognition of importance of space
  weather

• ISSUES
• Overcoming obstacles of classified information
  to free flow of scientific information

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SPACE WEATHER ARCHITECTURE (3-11) PURPOSE
Maximize Development and Implementation of Space
Weather Science and Technology

• PROS
• Maximize leveraging of others RD
• Promote unorthodox collaboration (e.g..,
  traditionally competitive commercial rivals)

TRADE AXES
Limited
Open Exchange of Info
Exchange of Info
X
Military Focus
Civilian Focus
X

• CONS
• Release of military sensitive information to
  U.S. enemies