The Maryland-National Capital Park

1
The Maryland-National Capital Park Planning
Commission
Managing growth in Montgomery County
Adequacy of transportation facilities Economic
vitality
September 13, 2003
2
The Transportation Tests

• Policy Area Transportation Review.
• Area average roadway congestion cannot exceed
  standard.
• Local Area Transportation Review.
• Tests congestion at nearby intersections.
• For both PATR and LATR, congestion standard
  varies depending on transit availability usage.

3
Policy Area Transportation Review

• Staging Ceilings Calculation of the maximum
  number of jobs and housing units the
  transportation system can handle.
• Rural no staging ceilings because growth limited
  by zoning.
• Staging ceilings in one
  policy area cannot result
  in excessive
  congestion in another
  policy area
• APF finding 5-12 years.

Policy Areas
4
How much new development can be approved?
STAGING CEILING
Capacity of Programmed Facilities
Net Remaining Capacity
Policy Areas
Approved Development
Capacity of Existing Facilities
Existing Development
Transportation
Development
5
What is TTLOS?

• Component of PATR Total Transportation Level of
  Service
• Formula for determining how much auto congestion
  should be permitted in each policy area.
• Inputs are transit mode share and transit
  accessibility.
• Problems with concept surfaced during 2001
  update a major reason for AGP review.

6
Development permitted under current ceilings
Jobs Housing Already Approved 77,292 25,987 Capac
ity New Approvals 32,052 31,568 Approvals
(2002) 10,539 5,169 Completions
(2002) 7,294 3,456
This chart does not include development activity
in Rockville or Gaithersburg
7
Policy areas in moratorium FY03
Housing
Jobs
In Moratorium
Not in Moratorium
Municipalities
8
Approving development in transportation
moratorium areas

• Small Scale Development
• Affordable Housing
• Staging Ceiling Flexibility
• Developer Participation
• Development Districts
• Metro Station Areas
• Economic Development Projects

9
Local Area Transportation Review

• Objective make sure development does not
  overwhelm nearby intersections.
• Applied to all projects generating 50 or more
  peak hour trips.
• If intersection fails the standard, developer can
  make improvements, mitigate trips, or in
  limited cases make a payment to the County.

10
Traffic congestion has gotten worse
Percent change, 1985-2000
Jobs
Pop
VMT
Roads
11
Comparing traffic congestion measures
Urbanized Congestion 2000
Transit Mode Share 2000
Montgomery Co.
Fairfax Co.
Montgomery Co.
Fairfax Co.
DC Region
Square Kilometers of Development 1973-85 1985-90 1
990-96 Montgomery County 3.5 4.6 2.6 Fairfax
County 5.7 10.0 4.5
12
Roadway congestion
Severely congested
Congested
Approaching congested
13
Cost of future infrastructure

• 2030 Forecast 146,000 jobs and 78,000 housing
  units (31,200 students).
• Transportation 5.9 billion
• About 26,000 per forecast job and housing unit

14
Transportation test concerns

• Using the right measures?
• Staging ceilings are based on average
  congestion.
• AGP looks only at peak periods.
• Complex Reliance on a complicated transportation
  model.
• Good technical and objective.
• Bad only an expert can challenge findings.

15
Transportation test goals

• More transparent and understandable
• Fewer subareas
• Strengthen connection to capital programming
• Retain LATR

16
Economic vitality
17
Economic vitality context

• The foundations of Montgomery Countys economy
  are very strong.
• Direct federal government activity
• Attracts and supports highly educated workforce
• Attracts and supports tech-oriented private
  sector
• Many counties would envy Montgomery Countys job
  growth, labor force, and unemployment rate.

18
County economy 2003

• Local economy exhibits strengths in face of
  national downturn
• Job growth flat overall, tech sectors among
  hardest hit
• Federal impact procurement, leasing employment
  outlook still strong
• Office space market short, mild recession
  appears to be ending

19
Annual job growth 2,159 jobs
Second quarter figures (change from previous year)
Source RESI compilation of DLLR data
Between the second quarters of 2001 and 2002,
Montgomery County added 2,159 jobs, growing 0.5
percent.
20
Job growth tech jobs drop to 1997 levels
Source RESI compilation of DLLR data (2002Q2)
Index 1988Q1100
Montgomery Co.
Maryland
United States
There are 71,400 high tech jobs in Montgomery
County.
21
Jobless rate is 2.6
June 1992 3.9
Jan 1988 2.6
July 2003 2.6
Source MD DLLR
There are 13,630 unemployed persons in Montgomery
County.
22
Federal jobs expected to exceed 1994 levels by
2005
Workers
By 2015, jobs at installations are expected to
grow by 38 percent above current levels. Jobs in
leased space are expected to fluctuate between
22,300 and 25,500.
Source M-NCPPC analysis of US government data
23
Federal leasing reaches 6.7 million s.f.
Square feet
Since 1994, GSA has leased between 6.0 and 6.7
million square feet of commercial space in
Montgomery County
Source General Services Administration (GSA)
24
Federal procurement reaches record levels 4.7
billion
billions
The regional leaders in federal procurement are
Washington DC and Fairfax County, VA, both with
more than double Montgomery Countys amount.
Source General Services Administration (GSA)
25
Office market long term trends show construction
cycles
Millions of square feet
26
Office market Class A vacancy rates have started
to decline
Office vacancy rates
C
A
All
B
27
Montgomery fared better than Fairfax and region
In March 2003 percent better or worse than March
2002
Vacant space
Occupied space
Montgomery Countys office market fared better
than the rest of region during the recent
recession, as we had less vacant space and we had
positive net absorption of new space.
28
Office market recovery negative indicators

• Leasing of new buildings may leave sublet space
  vacant.
• U.S. economy is in the doldrums, undermining
  confidence.
• There are still 800,000 sq. ft. under
  construction.

29
Summary

• Transportation tests Have moderated the pace of
  growth and have required road improvements to be
  built. But the current methods may be more
  complicated than necessary.
• Congestion Roads are congested and the cost of
  new facilities is high.
• Economic vitality Countys economic foundations
  and prospects are strong. Office market is
  healthier than region as a whole, but has space
  for companies to expand.