Important Economic Data

1
Important Economic Data

• Kishlaya Pathak

2
Market Players Policy Makers Focus on
EXPECTATIONS

• Prices of financial and real assets are a
  function of the future state of the economy and
  the likely course of macro-economic policy
• Policy instruments affect the economy with a lag
  implying that macro-policy is FORECAST BASED
• Therefore, the need to focus on FORWARD-LOOKING
  DATA

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Labor Market Indicators

• The Unemployment Report
• Establishment Survey 375K business
• Non-farm payroll
• Average hourly earnings
• Average workweek
• Household Survey 60K households
• Unemployment Rate
• Release date First Friday of every month
• Weekly jobless claims
• Unit labor costs

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Consumer Spending Indicators

• University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment
• Present Conditions Outlook
• Release date Preliminary Second Friday Final
  Fourth Friday
• Conference Board Consumer Confidence
• Retail Sales
• Measure of total receipts of retail stores
• With and Without Auto Sales
• Release date Around 13th of the month

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Output Indicators

• GDP data
• ISM Index Manufacturing
• Monthly Survey of more than 400 companies in 20
  industries across the US
• 50/-50 Expansion/Contraction
• 5-subindices Orders 30 production - 25
  employment - 20 deliveries - 15 inventories -
  10
• Industrial production
• Capacity utilization
• Durable goods orders Indicator of the capex
  cycle

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Inflation Statistics

• Producer Price Index
• Consumer Price Index
• Core PCE deflator
• Feds favorite inflation indicator
• GDP deflator
• Prices paid component of ISM index
• Import price inflation
• Important when the economy is running a huge
  current account deficit

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External Sector Indicators

• Current account balance
• Trade balance
• Release date Around 20th of the month
• Input into GDP forecasts
• Treasury International Capital System TIC Data
• Foreigners Transactions in Long-Term Securities
  with U.S. Residents

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Housing Sector Indicators

• Building permits
• Permits taken out to allow construction each
  month
• Housing Starts
• Number of residential units on which construction
  commenced each month
• New home sales
• Existing home sales
• NAHB (National Association of Home Builders)
  Housing Market Index

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Resources

• http//www.bls.gov/
• Bureau of Labor Statistics
• http//www.ism.ws/
• Institute of Supply Management
• http//bea.gov/
• Bureau of Economic Analysis
• www.conference-board.org/
• Conference Board
• http//www.census.gov/
• US Bureau of the Census
• www.treas.gov/tic/
• US Treasury TIC data