Floridas Turnpike Enterprise Toll Model Development Program

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Floridas Turnpike Enterprise Toll Model
Development Program

• 10th TRB Transportation Planning Applications
  Conference
• April 24-28, 2005

Presented by Jack Klodzinski
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Paper TitleFloridas Turnpike Enterprise Toll
Model Development Program

• Authors
• Thomas Adler, Ph.D., Resource Systems Group
• Youssef Dehghani, Ph.D., P.E., Parsons
  Brinckerhoff, Inc.
• Michael Doherty, URS Corporation
• Jack Klodzinski, Ph.D., URS/Floridas Turnpike
  Enterprise
• William Olsen, Ph.D., P.E., URS/Floridas
  Turnpike Enterprise

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Floridas Turnpike System

• Mainline (1957-1964)

• Bee Line West (1973)

• HEFT (1974)

• Sawgrass Expressway (1990)

• Seminole Expressway (1994 / 2002)

• Veterans Expressway (1994)

• Southern Connector Extension (1996)

• Polk Parkway (1999)

• Suncoast Parkway 1 (2001)

• Western Beltway Part C (2006)

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Modeling Overview

• Sketch Planning Model
• Statewide Model
• District/MPO Regional Models
• Turnpike Toll Mode Choice Regional Models
• Orlando, Tampa, Southeast

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Overview
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Rationale

• Enhancements to District/MPO models structure
  required to evaluate new toll projects
• Toll choice model with region-specific behavior
• Stratification by time-of-day
• New data required to support network calibration
  and model validation
• Land use data and forecasts updated to be
  consistent with accepted toll industry practices
• Can use network and other data from existing
  models

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Data Collection

• Compiled data from other sources
• Traffic counts by time of day
• Census Journey-to-Work data
• Transit onboard surveys
• Measured speeds by time of day (GPS Study)
• Conducted surveys to provide data on
• Regional toll trip making targets
• Average trip lengths by toll vs. toll-free
• External trips
• Values of travel time for toll trips
• Toll mode choice models by time period

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Data Collection

• Approximately 20,000 completed surveys in support
  of the Turnpikes regional toll model development

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Toll Mode Choice Models

• Key Features
• Discrete choices for toll toll-free users by
  auto-occupancy class
• Post-trip distribution time-of-day analysis
• Nested mode choice models
• by time-of-day and trip purposes

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Toll Mode Choice Models

• Key Features
• Generalized assignment procedure
• uses travel time and costs by time of day
• Akcelik volume/delay curves implemented
• more realistic functions for estimating travel
  times
• Feedback loop through mode choice
• uses successive averaging of travel times

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Toll Mode Choice Models

• Significant Explanatory Variables
• Trip length for toll users
• Household income in combination with travel costs
• Travel Costs / ln (HH Income)
• Vehicle occupancy effect on cost is significant
  only for HBW
• cost / ln (vehicle occupancy 1)

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Model Estimation Validation

• Statistical estimation reflecting travel behavior
  in each region
• Validation analysis
• Average trip rate
• Average trip length overall toll users
• Travel patterns overall toll users
• Loading accuracy check against actual counts on
  free toll facilities
• Sensitivity tests
• Change in toll rates demand elasticity

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Orlando Model Validation Results
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Orlando Model Validation Results
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Orlando Model Toll Sensitivity
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Tampa Model Validation Results
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Summary

• Floridas Turnpike is developing a variety of new
  modeling tools
• Use best practices methods, survey data key
  explanatory variables (e.g., income)
• More sensitive to toll forecasting needs
  schedule
• More capabilities (e.g., variable pricing by
  vehicle occupancy and by time of day)
• More attuned to Turnpike project needs (e.g.,
  intercity routes)
• Toll models are being regularly updated

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Floridas Turnpike Enterprise next generation of
modeling procedures have been successfully
developed and implemented.