Lecture 13: The Individual Level Of Analysis

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Lecture 13 The Individual Level Of Analysis
1. Rational Decision Making 2. Universal
Cognitive Biases 3. Cognitive Dissonance 4.
Motivated Bias
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The Levels Of Analysis
1. SYSTEMIC LEVEL 2. INTER-STATE OR REGIME
LEVEL 3. DOMESTIC, STATE, OR SOCIETAL LEVEL 4.
BUREAUCRATIC LEVEL 5. INDIVIDUAL OR DECISION
MAKING LEVEL
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Rational Decision Making Process
Define Problem
Search For Alternatives
Identify Consequences and Probabilities
Estimate Costs and Benefits
Optimize or Maximize
xxxxx
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Theory Versus Practice
Problem Individuals Often Deviate From Model
Three Categories of Deviations
Universal Cognitive Biases
Cognitive Dissonance
Motivated Bias
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Universal Cognitive Biases
1. Universal Implies All Humans Suffer From
Them 2. Cognitive Implies The Bias Influences
How We Absorb, Process, Store, And Recall
Information 3. Bias Implies A Deviation From
The Rational Model
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Are People Rational?
Big Decisions
Little Decisions

• Problems
• 1) Too Much Information
• 2) To Many Calculations
• Solution Cognitive Shortcuts

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Cognitive Biases
1. Satisficing -- Select Option Which Meets
Minimum Criteria 2. Historical Analogies Or
Lessons Of History -- Lesson Of Munich --
Country-Wide, Generational, Personal 3.
Availability Bias -- Example Israel Bombs
Iraqi Nuclear Reactor -- Vivid, Recent, Actual
Events, Consequential Events
Biases Often Interact
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The Rational Model In Ideal Form
ALTERNATIVES ------------ POLICY A POLICY
B POLICY C POLICY D
CONSEQUENCES -------------------------------------
----- SUCCEED PROBABILITY (.5) X 100 FAIL
PROBABILITY (.5) X -50 SUCCEED PROBABILITY
(.5) X 90 FAIL PROBABILITY (.5) X -30 SUCCEED
PROBABILITY (.5) X 20 FAIL PROBABILITY (.5) X
-10 SUCCEED PROBABILITY (.5) X 200 FAIL
PROBABILITY (.5) X -100
EXPECTED COSTS ------------ (50-25)25 (45-15)3
0 (10-5)5 (100-50)50
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Public Opinion The Persian Gulf War
gtgtgt
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Cognitive Biases --Continued
4. See What You Expect To See -- Filter
Information Through Theoretic Framework 5.
Ignore Incoming Information -- Continually
Updating Belief System Is Impossible 6.
Fundamental Attribution Error -- Your Bad
Actions Dictated By Environment -- Opponents
Bad Actions Due To Character Flaws 7.
Selective Attention To Criteria or Goals
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Cognitive Biases Conclusion
Alexander George

• Shortcuts Are Not Always Bad
• But We Tend to Have Favorites
• And We Resort to Them Prematurely

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Cognitive Dissonance
Accept Trade Off
Value Trade Off
Anxiety or Dissonance
Ignore Information
Manipulate Information
Examples Harassment, Dulles, and Nuclear Testing
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The Nuclear Testing Debate
Issue Banning Of All Underground Nuclear Tests
Proponents of a Ban ---------- No
Impact Lots Reduces Reduces Many
Opponents of a Ban ---------- Undermines Little
Increases Increases None
Successful Deterrence Environmental
Damage Accidents Arms Races Alternatives
Available
Irrational Cognitive Consistency
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Motivated Bias
1. Broad Category 2. Not Interested In
Psycho-Biographies 3. Motivated Bias See
What We Want To See 4. Example Stalin And The
Nazi Attack In 1941 5. Difficult, But Not
Impossible, To Separate Cognitive From
Motivated Bias
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Conclusions
Do People Make Decisions Rationally? If Not, Do
Deviations Influence Foreign Policy?

• Psychologists Find Many Deviations
• Three Types (a) Universal Cognitive Biases
• (b) Cognitive Dissonance
• (c) Motivated Bias