South Carolina Economic Outlook

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South Carolina Economic Outlook
July 30, 2009

• Dr. Don SchunkResearch EconomistBBT Center for
  Economic Community DevelopmentCoastal Carolina
  University

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SC Total EmploymentJan. 1990 June 2009
June 20001,883,300 jobs
June 20091,851,100 jobs
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SC Total EmploymentJan 1939 June 2009
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SC Total Employment Annual Job GrowthJan 1940
June 2009
June 2009-4.7
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U.S. Real GDP Growth1990Q1 2010Q4
2000 3.7 2001 0.8 2002 1.6 2003 2.5 2004
3.6 2005 2.9 2006 2.8 2007 2.0 2008 1.1
2009 -2.62010 1.5
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Headwinds AffectingConsumer Spending
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U.S. Labor Market IndicatorsJan. 1976 June 2009
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Households are saving more
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Households are trying to reduce debt
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Households are not taking on new debt
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Total Income is generally flat
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Job losses, flat incomes, household rebalancing
translates into weak consumer spending
June 2008 to June 2009 US Retail Sales down 9.0
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S.C. Retail Sales
May 2008 to May 2009 SC Retail Sales down 13.0
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A Few Key Sectors in South Carolina

• June 2008 June 2009 SC net loss of 92,700 jobs
• Manufacturing -29,800
• Leisure Hospitality -16,500
• Retail Trade -12,100
• Construction -10,900 (-24,400 since June 2007)
• These sectors 40 of all jobs
• These Govt. 60 of all jobs
• From 2002-2007 SC Employment increased by
  roughly 155 thousand
• Over 50 of the job growth came from
  construction, leisure hospitality, retail
  trade, and local government

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SC Total Employment Annual Job Growth1940Q1
2010Q4
2000 1.6 2001 -1.9 2002 -1.0 2003 0.2 200
4 1.4 2005 1.8 2006 2.2 2007 2.0 2008 -0.9
2009 -4.3 2010 -1.7
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S.C. Unemployment Rate1976Q1 2010Q4
SCs unemployment rate Expected to approach 15,
perhaps during Spring 2010 The roles
of-ongoing job losses-sluggish job
growth-labor force growth What about broader
measures of unemployment?
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SC Manufacturing Employment1970Q1 2010Q4
140,000 net job loss from2000 - 2010
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The State of Economic Development in South
Carolina
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SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 2008Q3
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SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 2008Q3
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SC Employment Dynamics1992Q3 2008Q3
How do we add jobs? -Attract New
Business -Encourage Expansion-Prevent
Closings-Prevent Contractions