Japan Updates, and draft EAEF Scenarios

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Japan Updates, and draft EAEF Scenarios

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Title: Japan Updates, and draft EAEF Scenarios


1
Japan Updates, and draft EAEF Scenarios
  • Kae Takase (Governance Design Lab.)
  • Tatsujiro Suzuki (CRIEPI)

EAEF Workshop, Beijing China, May. 12-14, 2004
2
Outline
  • Updates
  • Updates of latest statistics
  • Feature of new government outlook
  • NGO outlook
  • EAEF Japan Scenarios
  • BAU, National Alternative, and Regional
    Alternative
  • Concept of scenarios
  • Results
  • Discussion topics

3
Topics in Energy Policies
  • Energy policy basic law is now leading Japan to
    more nuclear-friendly country.
  • Nuclear fuel cycle is at the crossroad (stop
    before active test?)
  • RPS law is interrupting fine diffusion of
    renewable energy
  • Turn back in deregulation.
  • Compliance of Kyoto Protocol (2008-2012) is
    difficult.

4
Updates (1)
Economy, Energy, and CO2 emission
19701
  • Economy is recovering with price decrease.
  • Energy consumption decreased in 2001, but
    recovered to 2000 level in 2002.
  • CO2 emission in 2002 is 10.7 higher than 1990
    level.

19701
Price GDP deflator GDP in real terms
5
Updates (2)
Energy consumption by sector
  • Industry is still the largest consuming sector of
    energy in Japan.

1010kcal
6
Updates (2-2)
Energy consumption by sector (19701)
  • Passenger transportation is the most growing
    sector since 1970.
  • Household and commercial sector is also growing
    rapidly.
  • Freight transportation and industry sector is not
    growing fast. Freight consumption is steady
    recently.

7
Updates (3)
Energy consumption by source (final energy)
  • Oil share is almost 60 of total final energy
    consumption.
  • Electricity share is 22. (higher than U.S.,
    Korea, China and Europe, but lower than H.K.,
    Taiwan, Canada.)

Gas does not include LPG. LPG is included in
oil.
8
Updates (3-2)
Energy consumption by source (final energy)
  • Electricity is growing, but gas share is growing
    more rapidly.
  • Coal consumption is at the same level since 80s.
  • Oil consumption is not growing neither.

Gas does not include LPG. LPG is included in oil.
9
New government outlook
  • Intermediate outlook will be published on May
    17th.
  • Outlook will be calculated up to 2030.
  • Economic growth assumption and energy demand by
    sector is published in Feb.

10
Economic Growth
11
Final Energy Consumption
Government outlook
mil. kl of crude oil equivalent
Peak2022 (448)
2.0/year
0.2/year
Source METI (2004.2)
12
Final Energy Consumption
Comparison with other outlook
  • Government outlook shows highest growth in energy
    consumption.
  • IEEJ shows lower energy consumption for reference
    case.

13
Ratio of Electrification in FD
Government outlook
IEEJ outlook27
14
Final Demand by Sector
Government outlook
mil. kl of crude oil equivalent
Industry
Ind. HH Com. Pas. Fre.
Industry (exc. feedstock)
Commercial
Passenger
Household
Freight
F.Y.
15
Comment by Government
  • Energy demand will not grow as it did in 1990s
    even in high economic growth case.
  • Governments assumption of economic growth is
    much higher than that of IEEJ and NGO.
  • Calculated energy demand differs 10 by different
    economic assumption. Electricity demand differs
    20.

16
Comparison with IEEJ and NGO
  • Government assumption of economic growth is much
    higher than that of IEEJ and NGO.
  • Calculated energy demand by government is higher
    than that of IEEJ and NGO. IEEJ shows lowest
    energy demand.

17
Alert by NGO
Current Balance (trillion yen, 95 price)
Finantial Balance (trillion yen, 95 price)
  • Financial deficit grows, and current balance will
    change to a deficit in 2020.
  • Unemployment rate will be 12 (4.7 in 2010)
  • CO2 Emission will be 5-11 in 2010, and
    continues to grow.
  • Situation can be better with governments
    emphasis on Green industries. (It can increase
    competitiveness in international market.)

18
EAEF Scenarios
  • Reference
  • Activity Level, Unit consumption, share of each
    energy source IEEJ
  • Renewable energy ISEP study
  • National Alternative
  • Reference energy conservation (WWF) more
    renewables (ISEP) elec. generation composition
    by sources (WWF)
  • Regional Alternative
  • Oil pipeline, Natural Gas pipeline, Electricity
    import
  • For nuclear and renewables conservation
    cooperation (only affect to the cost)

19
National Alternative
  • Energy conservation
  • Arranged Tsuchiya study for WWF for 100
    installation.
  • 50 in 2010, 100 in 2030
  • Renewable energy
  • WWF PowerSwitch scenario, ISEP study
  • Less coal and nuclear in electricity generation
  • WWF PowerSwitch scenario

20
Regional Alternative
  • 1. Oil pipeline
  • from Eastern Siberia to the Pacific port of
    Nahodka, starts in 2010
  • 1 million bpd, at a cost of 5 billion (1/2
    China, 1/2 Japan)
  • 0.47 per barrel of oil received (30 years
    lifetime, 5 discount rate ? annual payment 6.5,
    95 capacity factor)
  • 2. Gas pipeline
  • from Sakhalin Island south to Northern Japan,
    starts in 2018
  • Capacity and cost unknown (All of Japanese cost
    and ½ of Russian cost paid by Japan) (Price
    estimate by Russian engineer exists)
  • 3. Sharing of Oil Refining Capacity
  • Japan rental fee revenue, China smaller cost of
    refining
  • It is a matter of Chinas decision

21
Regional Alternative
  • 4. Electricity Interconnections
  • Sakhalin CNG power to Hokkaido, 2GW in 2020, 4GW
    (total) in 2022
  • project cost 9 to 10 billion USD (6 billion USD
    in transmission line etc.)
  • ½ of total cost paid by Japan (5 cents/kWh)
  • Maximum capacity factor will be 65
  • 5. Cooperation in Nuclear Research and Nuclear
    Waste Agreements
  • 6. Cooperation in Energy Efficiency and Renewable
    Energy Financing and Technology Development

22
Final demand by sector
  • Final energy demand grow at 0.3/year in
    reference case.
  • Due to energy conservation, demand in alternative
    scenarios decrease at 0.03/year.

23
Primary Energy Requirement
Unit 1012kcal
  • Ref0.2/year
  • Alt-0.7/year
  • Pipeline oil gas introduced in regional
    alternative scenario.

24
Electricity Generation
  • No electricity import (-gtneed to be fixed)
  • More gas and renewables, less coal nuclear in
    alternative scenarios.

25
Household
Government has changed the statistics in 2002,
but IEEJ and most research institutes use
previous statistics calculated by IEEJ.
  • Government outlook shows higher increase.

26
Energy Share Household
Reference case
  • Shares of electricity and gas will increase.
  • Oil and LPG share decrease.

27
Energy Conservation Household
  • LCD TV, LCD PC, double efficiency refrigerator,
    diminish stand-by electricity loss
  • replace boilers to supply hot water to ones with
    latent heat recovery system
  • passive solar (heat, hot water)
  • efficient gas table
  • change incandescent lamp to fluorescent lamp
  • installation of dishwasher

50 in 2020, 100 in 2030
28
Energy Conservation Household
  • 2010 4 of total FD conserved.
  • 2030 9 of total FD conserved.
  • Biggest conservation in gas (boiler replacement
    and passive solar use in heating and hot water
    supply).

29
Commercial
Change in statistics was very big in commercial
sector.
  • IEEJ outlook show higher increase.

30
Energy Share Commercial
Reference case
  • Shares of electricity and gas will increase.
  • Oil and LPG share decrease.

31
Energy conservation Commercial
  • Change to amorphous transformer, street lighting
    without an electrode, LED traffic lights, LED
    lights, LCD PC
  • higher insulation rate in rental offices
  • cut off stand-by electricity loss of electricity
    appliances
  • cut off electricity use of vending machine by 54
  • replace oil pressure elevators to the ones
    without mechanical room
  • energy management system in buildings
  • replace boilers to supply hot water to ones with
    latent heat recovery system

50 in 2020, 100 in 2030
32
Energy Conservation Commercial
  • 2010 4 of total FD conserved.
  • 2030 18 of total FD conserved.
  • Biggest conservation in electricity (replacement
    to LED, etc).

33
Transportation
  • Government assumes growing energy consumption in
    transportation sector, but IEEJ assumes decrease
    since 2010.

34
Energy Share Transportation
  • There are possibilities to use CNG, and more
    electricity, but these are not included in this
    version.

35
Energy Conservation Transportation
  • Tax reform for smaller cars
  • Share of double efficiency cars (hybrid, fuel
    cell) will be 60 in 2030

50 in 2020, 100 in 2030
36
Energy Conservation Transportation
  • 2010 15 of total FD conserved.
  • 2030 37 of total FD conserved.
  • Gasoline and diesel oil use is conserved.

37
  • IEEJ assumes recovery of economy since 2010, and
    energy consumption also increase.

38
Energy Share Industry
  • Coal share decrease.
  • Electricity and oil share increase.

39
Energy Conservation Industry
  • Efficient appliances in all sectors
  • a control system with an inverter, an amorphous
    transformer, Highly efficient Moter, lights, LED
    Lights,
  • regenerative gas-fired burner for industrial
    furnaces
  • Efficient process in chemical, paper and pulp,
    and cement industries.

50 in 2020, 100 in 2030
40
Energy Conservation Industry
  • Largest conservation in coal consumption.
  • regenerative gas-fired burner for industrial
    furnaces

41
Conclusion
  • Japanese government is in a process of making new
    outlook to 2030.
  • Intermediate report on May 17th.
  • Gov. foresees demand peak will be in 2022
    followed by gradual decrease.
  • Draft EAEF Japan scenarios
  • Reference (IEEJ case), National Alternative, and
    Regional Alternative

42
Topics for discussion
  • Cost merit of refinery rental
  • Cogeneration potential (efficiency factor)
  • Future of nuclear and renewables

43
Energy Policy Basic Law
Major Policy Issues
  • Energy Policy Basic Law(2002.6.7 approved)
  • Promote non-fossil fuel energy use for
    environment
  • Energy Policy Basic Plan (2003.10.17 approved by
    Cabinet, reported to the Diet)
  • Stable supply Steady promotion of nuclear and
    renewable
  • Environment Improve the use of non-fossil
    fuel, such as nuclear, photovoltaic, wind, and
    biomass, improve the use of gas
  • Use of market mechanism But government
    should be responsible for stable supply and
    environment.
  • New long term outlook is under construction.
  • Advisory Committee of Energy will start by the
    end of 2003.
  • Final outlook will be determined by March (or
    June) in 2004.

44
RPS Law
Major Policy Issues
  • RPS law (2002.6 approved, 2003.4 enforced)
  • Electric power supplier obliged to supply certain
    percentage of new energy
  • Suppliers can supply new energy with their own
    capacity, or buy electricity from IPPs, or buy
    value of CO2-free
  • New energy includes waste power (dominant
    energy in Japanese RPS)

45
Concealment of cracks by TEPCO
Major Policy Issues
  • 2000.9 former employee of GE reported to METI
    the alteration of the internal inspection record
  • 2002.8 Nuclear and industrial safety agency
    and TEPCO announced, 13 plant, 29 data
    alteration
  • (more alternation revealed)
  • 2002.9 TEPCO was ordered to stop Fukushima No.1
    plant.
  • 2003.4 TEPCO stopped all 17 plants (now 7
    working, rest would be restarted by 2004.3)
  • 2003.4-10 operation rate 53.8 (30 point less
    than last year)
  • No blackout in the summertime

46
Nuclear Fuel Cycle
Major Policy Issues
  • No more need for NFC
  • No future for FBR/pluthermal, no more scarcity of
    uranium
  • Project cost ? electricity price
  • Once started 90-130 billion (1US110 yen)? 1
    cents/kWh
  • Stop before active test 40 billion
  • 2004.1- Uranium test (contamination starts)
  • 2005.2- Active test
  • 2006.7- Commercial operation
  • Whole cycle (2003.11.3 The Federation of Electric
    Power Companies of Japan(?), 72 years until
    decommission, mainichi news) 200 billion ?2
    cents/kWh(nuclear)
  • Problem with used fuel storage for power
    companies
  • If the project continues, 5 ton of plutonium per
    year will be produced in Rokkasho

(nuclear)
(Source Japan Initiative,2003.11)
47
Deregulation
Major Policy Issues
  • Retail liberalization
  • 2001.3- large-scale factories and department
    store (30 of demand)
  • 2004- middle-scale factories, office building
  • 2005- small-scale factories, supermarket (60
    of demand)
  • Turn back of market reforms (midterm report for
    further reform, 2003.9)
  • Responsible companies for generation-transmission-
    distribution is vital for stable supply, and
    nuclear development
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