Other Developments in CCSP Related to WOAP: Emphasis on Reanalysis Randall M' Dole, NOAA CoChair, Cl

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Other Developments in CCSP Related to WOAP
Emphasis on ReanalysisRandall M. Dole,
NOAACo-Chair, Climate Variability and Change
IWGU.S.Climate Change Science Program
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Climate Variability and Change (CVC) IWG -
context for developing research priorities

• Some important considerations
• Recently completed IPCC AR4 assessments
• - Identification of key areas of scientific
  uncertainties
• - Science research needs related to impacts,
  adaptation, and mitigation
• Potential emergence of a National Climate
  Service.
• Key adaptation needs. Provide information at
  primary scales for decision-making - regional to
  local scales, and across temporal scales from
  short-term weather to longer-term climate change.
• Key mitigation needs. Must establish closer
  connections between climate science and
  technological solutions. In U.S., better connect
  CCSP to CCTP.
• Decision-maker concerns. Major issues How might
  climate change alter weather and climate
  variability, particularly extreme events? What is
  the potential for abrupt changes?

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Current and emerging CVC priority areas

• Major unresolved science issues (AR4) that affect
  climate sensitivity and transient climate
  response, e.g., cloud feedbacks, aerosol-cloud
  interactions, carbon cycle feedbacks, ocean heat
  uptake
• Climate analysis and reanalysis - Integrated
  Earth System Analysis
• Attribution of causes for observed climate
  variations and changes
• Seamless predictions decadal predictability
• Climate variability in a non-stationary climate
• Regional modeling and predictability
• Abrupt climate change
• Ice sheet dynamics/modeling
• Extreme events in a changing climate

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CVC Analysis Priority

• Beginning in 2005, CVC proposed as a high CCSP
  priority the Development of an Integrated Earth
  System Analysis Capability (IESA).
• IESA Goal
• To provide an internally consistent,
  comprehensive, high quality record of the state
  of the Earth system and how it is evolving over
  time.
• Achieving this goal requires advances in the
  scientific capacity to assimilate observations
  from disparate observing systems into earth
  system models that include physical, chemical,
  and biological processes.

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Key points

• IESA has as an objective to optimize use of the
  full array of Earth observations to monitor and
  understand changes in climate.
• IESA fundamentally links advances in Earth
  observations with Earth System Models.
• Developing this capability poses a scientific
  grand challenge that will require many years to
  accomplish.
• Developing an IESA will require sustained and
  collaborative multi-agency, U.S. and
  international efforts.

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Earth System Analysis
Terrestrial Marine Ecosystems
Biogeochemical
Land Surface
Hydrologic
Cryosphere
Glacier and Sea Ice
Ocean
OGCM
Atmosphere
AGCM
Observations
Models
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IESA
Component Analyses
Component Analyses
Component Analyses
(etc.)
Integration Tools, Facilities
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Key Challenges

• Data set preparation and quality control
  (inhomogeneities)
• Understanding and addressing model biases
• Differences in dominant time scales of various
  components
• Estimates of error covariances
• Advantages/disadvantages of different
  assimilation techniques
• Nonlinearities in the coupled system
• Major infrastructure challenges - computing,
  data management and delivery needs

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Related U.S. efforts

• Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research
  and Applications (MERRA)
• Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and
  Reforecast Project (CFSRR)
• Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project
• Note there are several other related U.S.
  efforts, e.g., in carbon data assimilation,
  coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation, other
  components (ocean, land) that are ongoing that
  are not covered here. Russ Vose will discuss
  another critical component, GCOS/WCRP Working
  Group on Observational Data Sets for Reanalysis.
  This group is developing a plan for constructing
  and managing reanalysis-related data sets, which
  will be essential to future efforts.

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Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research
and Applications (MERRA)

• NASA led project (Don Anderson, M. Bosilovich,
  S. Schubert, POCs).
• GEOS-5 is the core atmospheric model.
• Focus is on the modern satellite era,
  1979-present.
• Major emphases on climate applications of NASA
  research satellites, on improving the water
  cycle.
• Data assimilation scheme is the gridpoint
  statistical interpolation (GSI) scheme with
  incremental analysis updates (IAU).
• MERRA processing will be followed by a replay
  with aerosols for a consistent time series of
  meteorology and aerosol distributions.
• Production began May 2008, anticipated
  completion, Fall 2009.

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GEOS-5 Atmospheric DAS for MERRA (Supported by
NASA MAP Program)

• Analysis
• Grid Point Statistical Interpolation (GSI from
  NCEP)
• Direct assimilation of satellite radiance data
  using JCSDA Community Radiative Transfer Model
  (CRTM)
• Variational bias correction for radiances

• AGCM
• Finite-volume dynamical core (S.J. Lin)
• Moist physics (J. Bacmeister, S. Moorthi and M.
  Suarez)
• Physics integrated under the Earth System
  Modeling Framework (ESMF)
• Generalized vertical coord to 0.01 hPa
• Catchment land surface model (R. Koster)
• Prescribed aerosols (P. Colarco)
• Interactive ozone
• Prescribed SST, sea-ice

• Assimilation
• Apply Incremental Analysis Increments (IAU) to
  reduce shock of data insertion (Bloom et al.)
• IAU gradually forces the model integration
  throughout the 6 hour analysis period

Model predicted change
Correction from DAS
Total observed change
Analysis
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A special thanks to Jack Woollen for help with
the conventional data streams and Leo Haimberger
for the radiosonde corrections!!!!
This builds upon previous collaborative efforts
between NCEP and ECMWF to improve input
observations
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Next Steps

• Developing Components of Future Integrated Earth
  System Analysis, with consistent analyses across
  all components.
• Efforts underway
• Assimilation of constituents (ozone)
• Aerosols
• Land surface (assimilation of ASMR-E soil
  moisture retrievals)
• Ocean biology (chlorophyll)
• Physical ocean (TOPEX/Jason Altimeter Data)

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Climate Forecast System Reanalysis and Reforecast
Project (CFSRR)

• NOAA/NCEP-led (Hua-Lu Pan, Sura Saha principal
  POCs).
• Goal is to provide consistent initial conditions
  for reforecasts from the CFS for the post-1979
  period to enable calibrations for NCEP
  operational seasonal predictions.
• The NOAA CFS is used to provide a first guess
  from a coupled atmosphere-ocean- sea ice - land
  system model.
• The analysis uses a loose-coupling method the
  coupled model provides a common first guess, but
  separate data assimilation schemes are used for
  each component.
• Much higher resolution than earlier reanalysis
  efforts (approximately 30-40 km horizontal
  resolution vs. 200 km resolution).
• Incorporate radiance measurements from
  satellites that were not assimilated in earlier
  global reanalysis.
• Started production runs in June 2008 planned
  completion in late 2009.

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CFSRR Components

• Reanalysis
• 31-year period (1979-2009 and continued in NCEP
  operations)
• High resolution (T382 35 km/L64 levels)
• Coupled system (A-O-L-S) provides background for
  analysis
• Atmosphere
• Ocean
• Land
• Sea ice
• Required for consistent initial conditions for
  seasonal forecasts
• Research data set for predictability,
  calibration, reforecast studies
• Reforecast
• 28-year period (1982-2009 and continued in NCEP
  operations )
• Provides stable calibration and skill estimates
  for new operational seasonal system
• Research for improved (ensemble) postprocessing
  studies
• Includes upgrades for A-O-L-S developed since CFS
  originally implemented in 2004
• Upgrades developed and tested for both climate
  and weather prediction
• Unified weather-climate strategy (1 day to 1
  year)

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Component Upgrades to the CFS
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NCEP Future Plans

• CFS will be upgraded every 7 years
• New forecast system
• Upgrades from operations
• New techniques (4D Var, etc.)
• Higher resolution analysis
• Aerosol and trace gas analysis
• Carbon cycle
• Hydrology, ground water, etc.
• New observations from data mining
• Satellite data treatment (e.g. bias correction)
• Evolution to Integrated Earth System Analysis
• Ongoing work to incorporate these improvements
• Preparation for Reanalysis production phase
• All additions carefully tested

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Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project

• Principal POCS Gil Compo, Jeff Whitaker and
  Prashant Sardeshmukh, NOAA/ESRL and CU/CIRES/CDC.
• Summary An international collaborative project
  led by NOAA and CIRES with support by DOE to
  produce high-quality tropospheric reanalyses for
  the last 100 years using only surface
  observations.
• The reanalyses will provide
• First-ever estimates of near-surface and
  tropospheric 6-hourly fields extending back to
  the beginning of the 20th century
• Estimates of biases and uncertainties in the
  basic reanalyses
• Estimates of biases and uncertainties in derived
  quantities (storm tracks, etc.)
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• Initial product will have higher quality in the
  Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern
  Hemisphere.
• US Department of Energy computing award and NOAA
  support to produce 1892-2007 by early 2009,
  extend back to 1871 by late 2009.

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International Surface Pressure Databank
Subdaily observations assembled under GCOS
AOPC/OOPC Working Group on Surface Pressure
GCOS/WCRP Working Group on Observational Data
Sets for Reanalysis NOAA NCDC, NOAA ESRL, and
CU/CIRES merging station data NOAA ESRL and
NCAR (ICOADS) merging marine data Partners
contributing observations

• NOAA Climate Database Modernization Program
• NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
• NOAA National Climatic Data Center
• NOAA National Centers for Environmental
  Prediction
• NOAA Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell
  
• NOAA Midwest Regional Climate Center at UIUC
• Norwegian Meteorological Institute
• Ohio State U. Byrd Polar Research Center
• Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory
• SIGN - Signatures of environmental change in the
  observations of the Geophysical Institutes
• South African Weather Service
• UK Met Office Hadley Centre
• U. of Colorado-CIRES/Climate Diagnostics Center
• U. of East Anglia-Climatic Research Unit
• U. of Lisbon-Instituto Geofisico do Infante D.
  Luiz
• U. of Lisbon- Instituto de Meteorologia
• U. of Milan-IFGA
• U. Rovira i Virgili-CCRG

• All Union Research Institute of
  Hydrometeorological
• Information WDC
• Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the
  Earth
• Australian Bureau of Meteorology
• British Antarctic Survey
• Danish Meteorological Institute
• Deutscher Wetterdienst
• EMULATE
• Environment Canada
• ETH-Zurich
• GCOS AOPC/OOPC Working Group on Surface Pressure
• Hong Kong Observatory
• ICOADS
• Instituto Geofisico da Universidade do Porto
• Japanese Meteorological Agency
• Jersey Met Dept.
• KNMI
• MeteoFrance
• Meteorological and Hydrological Service, Croatia

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Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project Status

• Fall 2008 1908-1958 (complete and will be
  released soon)
• Spring 2009 1892-2008 (including time-varying
  CO2, aerosols, upgraded GFS)
• Fall 2009 1871-1891(coordinate with GFDL
  coupled model decadal prediction project)
• Data Access Analyses and integrated surface
  pressure data base (with feedback) will be freely
  available from NCAR, NOAA/ESRL and NOAA/NCDC.
• Proposed 2012 Surface Input Reanalysis for
  Climate Applications 1800s-2011
• Higher resolution
• improved methods (e.g., Kalman Smoother)
• More input data (e.g., winds and T, extratropical
  and tropical storm positions)
• latest GFS
• Include uncertainty in forcings (e.g., ensemble
  of SSTs and sea ice)

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Near-term CVC Priorities Related to Reanalysis

• Continued development of Earth system models as
  a basis for IESA
• Data set preparation and quality control
• Research to assess and apply MERRA, CFSRR, 20th
  century reanalyses
• Research to advance
• - carbon data assimilation
• - assimilation of additional atmospheric trace
  gases and aerosols
• - coupled ocean-atmosphere data assimilation
• - improved modeling and assimilation of snow
  cover and sea ice
• - coupled atmosphere-land surface reanalysis

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General Recommendations

• From CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 1.3
  Reanalysis of Historical Climate Data for Key
  Atmospheric Features Implications for
  Attribution of Observed Changes.
• To better detect changes in the climate system,
  improve the quality and consistency of the
  observational data and reduce effects of
  observing system changes.
• Develop analysis methods that are optimized for
  climate research and applications. These methods
  should include uncertainty estimates for all
  reanalysis products.
• To improve decision support, develop future
  climate reanalysis products at finer space scales
  and emphasize products that are most relevant for
  applications.
• Develop the longest possible consistent record of
  past climate conditions.
• Develop integrated Earth system models and
  analysis systems that include key climate
  elements that were not contained in initial
  atmospheric reanalyses. Such variables include
  those required to monitor changes in the carbon
  cycle and to understand interactions among Earth
  system components that may lead to accelerated or
  diminished rates of climate change.
• Develop a more coordinated, effective, and
  sustained national capability in analysis and
  reanalysis to support climate research and
  applications.

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Concluding remarks
National and international partnerships will be
essential to achieving optimal progress in
climate analysis, and more generally developing
an IESA capability. GCOS and WCRP (WOAP) have
been very helpful in providing overall direction
and in helping to make the case for the
importance of climate analysis/reanalysis efforts
in the U.S. CCSP, and specifically CVC IWG,
believe stronger connections to WOAP would be
helpful in improving coordination of U.S. and
international efforts in climate analysis and
reanalysis. One idea CVC could propose to U.S.
agencies a workshop on Critical Needs for
Developing an IESA Capability. Would there be
interest in WOAP in participating in such a
workshop? Questions Would a longer period
reanalysis, e.g. SIRCA, be desirable? Timing?
International role in developing required data
sets? Mechanisms for sharing information on
data/QC issues? Can gold standard data sets be
identified for evaluating reanalyses? What are
metrics that might be used for evaluating
progress?