Ken Wirt

1
Revolution Evolution, Convergence Appliance

• Ken Wirt
• SVP/GM palmOne, Inc

2
We Hold These Truths to be Self-Evident

• Convergence is inevitable
• 3.7M results on Google
• Phones will cannibalize everything
• Multi-function is better than single function
• More is better
• Platforms are the best
• PC, OS, open architecture
• But the signs are not always obvious

3
(No Transcript)
4
(No Transcript)
5
Survey

• Clock, radio, receiver, TV, VCR

6
Survey

• Washer-Dryer vs. pen-pencil vs. toaster-oven

7
Survey

• Can-bottle opener vs. Swiss Army knife vs. spork

8
Survey

• Phone-answering machine vs. multi-function printer

9
Survey

• Phone vs. PDA vs. calculator vs. MP3

• Signs are more confusing than they seem

10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
Electrification of Steam Power

• Factory laid out with belts connecting work
  stations to steam engine
• No possiblity of distributed steam
• Takes 20 yrs (life-cycle of factory building) for
  electric dynamo to be distributed
• Average car has gt60 electric motors

13
20 Years for Distributed Computing

• My kitchen has gt14 computers
• My house has 16 optical drives
• Seems easy to predict, but if you make a wrong
  turn .

14
(No Transcript)
15
(No Transcript)
16
What is the Life-cycle of technology?

• How can we understand the evolution of technology
  in products?
• How will PCs, PDAs and phones develop in the
  future?
• What will win?

17
Revolution Evolution

• Revolution Patterns of the past build to the
  future
• New technologies quickly displace old tech
• But usage model doesnt change
• Evolution Takes time for other parts of the
  system to adapt into a unique solution
• Rebuild the factory for distributed power
• Not a new solution until the entire system
  changes

18
Convergence Appliance

• Convergence
• Add more features because system/evolution has
  not developed complete solution
• Value depends on rate of tech change, not
  combined cost
• Clock-radioslow, TV-VCRfast
• Benefit of combination cant be just two-in-one
• Two is harder to use than one
• Calculator in phone

19
Appliance

• Segmentation vs. mass market
• There is no mass market only undefined
  markets
• Products diverge through maturity, not converge
• Cost of communicating benefits
• Cost vs. Value
• Cost to upgrade is the true measure
• Utility vs. Simplicity
• Simplicity wins every time (all other things
  equal)
• On-board computers vs. I-drive
• Watch the rear-view mirror appliances may be
  gaining on you!

20
(No Transcript)
21
Future of Appliances

• WAN networks not necessarily phones
• E-mail in the sky (keyboard)
• Music in the sky (audio)
• Photos in the sky (big display)
• Everythings connected
• Storage everywhere not just the server
• Ala optical hard drives in everything
• Convergence?
• How to keep everything in sync?

22
Because if we dont .
Questions?