Module 3

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Module 3

•  Population, Resources Environment
• Too many people? Too much consumption?

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OUTLINE

• Population Growth
• Current Population Trends
• Developed and Developing countries
• Demographic Transition
• A materializing economy
• Growth in consumption
• Materials and energy
• Economies need ecosystems
• Humans need Nature

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Sustainable Development

• Sustainable development integrates economic
  progress, social development and environmental
  concerns.
• The goals of economic and social development must
  be defined in terms of environmental
  sustainability in all countries of the world
  developed and developing (Our Common Future,
  WCED, 1987).

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Agenda 21 Principles

• 1 Human beings are at the centre of concerns for
  sustainable development. They are entitled to a
  healthy and productive life in harmony with
  nature. 
• 4 In order to achieve sustainable development,
  environmental protection shall constitute an
  integral part of the development process and
  cannot be considered in isolation from it. 

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Agenda 21 Principles

• 7 States shall cooperate in a global partnership
  to conserve, protect and restore the health and
  integrity of the Earth's ecosystems.
• The developed countries acknowledge the
  particular pressures that they place on the
  global environment.
• 8 To achieve sustainable development and a
  higher quality of life for all people, States
  should
• reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of
  production and consumption and
• promote appropriate demographic policies. 

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Scarcity and Abundance

• 200 years ago, there were abundant resources and
  scarce people
• Today, there are abundant people and scarce
  resources

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Population and Consumption

• Is Overpopulation the root cause of most
  environmental problems?
• Is the population growth in developing countries
  causing most of the world's environmental
  problems?
• The global environmental problem isn't just about
  the number of people, but the amount we all
  consume.

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World Population - the numbers

• 1850 - 1.26-billion 
• 1900 - 1.65-billion 
• 1950 - 2.52-billion 
• 1960 - 3.02-billion 
• 1970 - 3.70-billion 
  
• 1980 - 4.44-billion 
• 1990 - 5.27-billion 
• 1999 - 6.00-billion
•  
• 2020 - 7.50-billion 
• 2050 - 8.91-billion 

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World Population Growth
The Logisitic Curve
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Population and Growth Rates
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Demographic Transition

• A model of population growth based on historical,
  social, and economic development of Europe and N.
  America.
• Stable pop. (high birth and death rates)
• Death rate falls, population grows
• Industrialization (economic development) - birth
  rate falls
• Death rates and birth rates equilibrate

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Population Growth Slowing Down?

• In 1998, the United Nations released its
  population update, reducing the projected world
  population for 2050 from 9.4 billion to 8.9
  billion.
• Of the 500 million drop, roughly two thirds is
  because of falling birth rates, but one third is
  the result of rising death rates.
• Two regions where death rates are rising are
  sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian subcontinent,
  which together contain 1.9 billion people, or one
  third of humanity.

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Current Population

• World population stands at about 6 billion.
• Expect 8 billion by 2025
• Largest increase expected in developing
  countries.
• Populations in the developed countries have
  stabilized
• But per capita material consumption has not.

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Human Population Impacts

• Several factors determine the impact of a society
  on natural resources and the environment.
• Population size
• Population density
• Level of materials and energy consumption

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Standard of Living

• Standard of living
• The necessities and luxuries essential to a level
  of existence that is customary within a society
  or culture.
• Standard of living appears to be closely tied to
  energy consumption
• This is a proxy for economic development
• Developing countries aspire to the higher
  standard of living of developed countries

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Consumption

• CONSUMERISM is a social and economic creed that
  encourages us to aspire to greater and greater
  consumption, regardless of the consequences
• . but there are consequences
• especially the environmental consequences of
  manufacturing and waste disposal

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• Within a span of 200 years, the per capita energy
  consumption of industrialized nations has
  increased eight-fold.

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Per capita energy use, 1989

• Kg of coal equivalent

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Growth in Consumption

• Worldwide since 1950, the per capita consumption
  of materials and energy has skyrocketed
• Copper, meat, energy, steel, timber have doubled
• Car ownership, cement have quadrupled
• Plastic by 5-times
• Aluminum by 7-times
• Air travel by 33-times

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Consumption of Resources

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Human Carrying Capacity

• The human population cannot increase indefinitely
• In 1798, Thomas Malthus published his Essay on
  Population
• Human population increases at a faster rate than
  the growth in the food supply
• Therefore, the population will outgrow the
  ability of the Earth to feed us all
• His timing might be off but many people feel that
  his original prediction is now coming true

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Human Carrying Capacity (2)

• In range management, carrying capacity is defined
  as the maximum population of a given species that
  can be supported indefinitely in a specified
  habitat without impairing the productivity of
  that habitat.
• Because of our seeming ability to increase human
  carrying capacity by eliminating competing
  species, importing locally scarce resources, and
  through technology, this definition does seem so
  directly applicable to humans.

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Humans and Nature

• Despite our technical, economic and cultural
  accomplishments, humans remain ecological beings.
  
• Like all other species, we depend for both basic
  needs and the production of artifacts on energy
  and material resources extracted from nature.
• Furthermore, all energy and matter is eventually
  returned to the ecosphere as waste, where it must
  be assimilated.

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The secret life of a cup of coffee

• From Colombia
• Forest clearance
• Pesticides
• Local Pollution, water use, etc
• To New Orleans
• By freighter
• Processing
• Packaging, etc
• To you
• Transportation, merchandising, preparation, waste

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Stuff The Secret Lives of Everyday Things

• by John Ryan and Alan Durning
• 
  

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Ecological Footprint

• The land (and water) area required to support a
  defined human population and material standard
  indefinitely.
• The index is expressed in terms of the area of
  ecologically-productive land used per capita by a
  population.
• The global fair share of eco-productive land is
  1.5 hectares per person
• The average North Americans footprint is 8 to 10
  hectares

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Ecosystem Services

• The Earth's human economies would soon collapse
  without fertile soil, fresh water, breathable
  air, and an amenable climate
• These are Nature's life-support services
• The human economy depends on ecosystems
• Its not the other way around

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Natural Capital

• Natural capital consists of three major
  components 
• non-renewable resources such as oil and minerals
  that are extracted from ecosystems, 
• renewable resources such as fish, wood, and
  drinking water that are produced and maintained
  by the processes and functions of ecosystems, 

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Natural Capital (cont.)

• environmental services such as maintenance of the
  quality of the atmosphere, climate, operation of
  the hydrological cycle including flood controls
  and drinking water supply, waste assimilation,
  recycling of nutrients, generation of soils,
  pollination of crops, provision of food from the
  sea, and the maintenance of genetic diversity
  (biodiversity). 
• All these crucial services are generated and
  sustained by the functioning of ecosystems

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Forest Ecosystems

• Goods Services

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Global Forests
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Sustainability Two Sides

• Ecological sustainability underpins socioeconomic
  sustainability
• The necessary conditions for developing
  sustainability
• Securing a satisfactory quality of life for all
  (socioeconomic imperative). While
• Reducing the Ecological Footprints of the
  industrialized countries (ecological imperative).

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Sustainability Gap

• While the residents of the developed world
  consume on average three-times their fair share
  of sustainable global output, the basic needs of
  the worlds billion plus chronically poor are not
  being met.
• More material growth, at least in the poor
  countries, seems essential for socioeconomic
  sustainability.

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Ecology Gap

• According to Ecological Footprint analysis, the
  current level of global human consumption already
  exceeds the available ecological capacity of the
  Earth by 30.
• From this, any global increase in material and
  waste throughput seems ecologically unsustainable.

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The Sustainability Challenge

• If we rely on conventional economic strategies
  and technologies to fix development problems, the
  additional material growth would further degrade
  already stressed global ecosystems.
• Sustainable development is more than simple
  economic reform.
• How can we decrease humanitys total ecological
  impact while providing adequately for the needs
  of all humankind?

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Summary

• Conventional wisdom
• Global population cannot grow indefinitely
• Unconventional wisdom
• Material consumption cannot grow indefinitely
• Carrying capacity is limited by ecological
  resources
• Sustainability means finding an ecological
  footprint that doesnt stamp out global ecosystems