Chris Jacobs

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Spatial structure of services and mobility

• Chris Jacobs

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• Introduction
• Researcher _at_ SPINlab - VU University Amsterdam
• Researched shopping location changes with regard
  to mobility changes
• Currently involved in research on land use change

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• SPINlab SPatial Information, Spatial analysis

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• Topic
• Transportation and spatial structure higher
  energy prices
• Can we expect changes in transportation sector?
• What kind of changes can we expect in spatial
  structures?
• Focus on shopping, services.

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• Outline
• Past growth of mobility
• Changes in spatial pattens due to mobility
  changes
• Behavior changes that stem from energy price
  change
• Effects on spatial structure

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• Mobility
• Mobility the ability of an individual to travel
  a certain distance with given transport modes.
  E.g. Greater mobility means a person can travel
  longer, faster, bigger distances.
• Mobility defined by generalized costs of a
  travel (time, money, availability infrastructure,
  transport modes)

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• Growth of mobility
• Rietveld (2006) In the long run, generalized
  costs have decreased
• As a result, total travelled kilometers in Europe
  has increased strongly in the last decade

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• Effect on spatial structure
• Reach the number of activity places an
  individual can reach (given generalized costs,
  transportation modes)
• From 1900 2000, the reach of Dutch citizens has
  grown tremendously.

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Growth of reach
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• Effect on spatial structure
• Lower transaction costs, bigger reach lead to
  possibilities of growth in scale
• More concentrated production
• Greater clustering of producers
• Functional specialisation
• This leads to (general) growth in welfare!!!!

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• Welfare and spatial structure has become
  dependant on low transport costs
• Global Designed in Europe, manufactured in
  China, sold in USA.
• Local Malls, large schools, hypermarkets

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• Quality of life has become dependent on low
  transport costs
• Choice of place of settlement more and more
  detached from place of work
• Shopping choices based more on shop quality than
  vicinity
• Tourism has global scope

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• Will energy demand from the transportation sector
  decrease if fuel prices increase?
• Number of km transported grown larger than
  European economies
• Energy consumption of energy sector grown larger
  than number of km transported
• e.g. Rietveld (2006)

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• Will consumers demand for transportation
  decrease if fuel prices increase?
• A number of studies little effect of energy
  price change on fuel demand for transportation
• Most changes in fuel efficiency, car ownership.
  Little effect on number of km transported
• Studies based on figures from the past!!!
• e.g. Brons (2007)

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• Spatial trends in Groningen, Drenthe province
• In forecasts little growth in demand for
  housing, business
• Cost of living will increase in rural areas
• Services, business likely to concentrate

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Thank you http//spinlab.vu.nl