Building a spatial simulation model of happiness and well-being in Britain

1
Building a spatial simulation model of happiness
and well-being in Britain

• Dimitris Ballas
• Department of Geography
• University of Sheffield
• http//www.sheffield.ac.uk/sasi
• e-mail d.ballas_at_sheffield.ac.uk

Understanding Population Trends and Processes A
Secondary Data Analysis Initiative http//www.upt
ap.net
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Outline

• What is happiness?
• Building geographical simulation models of
  happiness and well-being at different
  geographical levels
• Happiness and inequality
• Concluding remarks on-going research aims and
  objectives

3
What is happiness?

• Greece, circa 500 BC
• Socrates, Plato ?
• Aristotle (384-322 BC)
• Nichomachean Ethics (350 BC)
• http//classics.mit.edu/Aristotle/nicomachaen.html
  
• England, 18th century
• Bentham (1748 1832), the principle of Utility
• John Stuart Mill (1806 1873) Utilarianism
• http//www.utilitarianism.com/

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What is happiness? Can it be measured?

• Human perceptions of happiness vary and depend on
  a wide range of factors
• What is the good life for man? The question of
  what is a full and rich life cannot be answered
  for an individual in abstraction from the society
  in which he lives
• (Aristotle, Nicomachean Ethics)
• Can happiness be measured?
• Happiness is subjective and no objective theory
  about the ordinary concept of happiness has the
  slightest plausibility
• (Sumner, 1996)

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What is happiness? Can it be measured?

• A person who has had a life of misfortune, with
  very little opportunities, and rather little
  hope, may be more easily reconciled to
  deprivations than others reared in more fortunate
  and affluent circumstances. The metric of
  happiness may, therefore, distort the extent of
  deprivation in a specific and biased way.
• (Sen, 1987 45, my emphasis)
• Oswald and Clark (2002) statistical regression
  models of happiness measuring the impact of
  different life events upon human well being

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Happiness and economics

• Happiness is defined as utility
• Utility can be measured and compared across
  people
• Marginal utility of income is assumed to be
  higher for poor people than for rich people
• Hicks and Kaldor proposed a measure of national
  welfare similar to GDP adjusted for leisure and
  pollution

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BUT can Happiness be measured?

• Richard Layard (2005), Andrew Owswald (2002) and
  others argue that it can!
• By happiness I mean feeling good enjoying
• Life and feeling is wonderful. And by
• Unhappiness I mean feeling bad and wishing things
  were different (Layard, 2005)

8
General happiness Self Completion (4) Question
Number and Text KS1L Have you recently....been
feeling reasonably happy, all things considered?
Source The British Household Panel Survey, 2001
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General Health Questionnaire (1) Have you
recently

• Been able to concentrate on whatever you are
  doing?
• Lost much sleep over worry?
• Felt that you are playing a useful part in
  things?
• Felt capable of making decisions about things?
• Felt constantly under strain?
• Felt you could not overcome your difficulties?

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General Health Questionnaire (2) Have you
recently

• Been able to enjoy your normal day-to-day
  activities?
• Been able to face up to your problems?
• Been feeling unhappy or depressed?
• Been losing confidence in yourself?
• Been thinking of yourself as a worthless person?
• Been feeling reasonable happy all things
  considered?

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Happiness in different activities (after Layard,
2005)
12
Happiness in different activities (after Layard,
2005)
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Can happiness be measured?

• Positive and negative feelings are inversely
  correlated
• Happiness can be thought of as a single variable
  (Layard, 2005 Frey and Stutzer, 2002)

14
Geographies of happiness in Britain
Source The British Household Panel Survey, 2001
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Geographies of unhappiness in Britain
REGION BY SOCIAL CLASS CLASS 1 CLASS 2 CLASS 3 CLASSES 1 - 3 N
Rest of Yorks Humberside 3.3 7.1 7.0 5.9 328
Tyne Wear 10.0 7.1 3.4 7.2 264
East Midlands 5.3 8.1 11.2 7.9 782
Inner London 10.3 5.2 8.8 7.9 418
Rest of North West 4.9 9.2 12.3 8.5 454
South West 11.7 6.7 8.9 8.7 930
Greater Manchester 14.5 8.2 4.8 9.3 416
West Midlands Conurbation 10.5 8.9 8.8 9.3 453
East Anglia 10.7 6.5 13.3 9.5 390
Merseyside 17.6 9.2 0.0 9.5 233
West Yorkshire 14.5 7.7 9.6 10.2 364
Rest of South East 10.5 10.8 8.7 10.3 1,875
Outer London 8.9 13.3 6.9 10.7 668
Rest of West Midlands 8.9 11.6 14.9 11.5 506
Rest of North 19.7 10.4 8.5 12.4 400
Wales 11.1 12.9 15.3 13.0 533
South Yorkshire 17.6 11.6 24.2 15.4 293
Great Britain 10.5 9.3 9.7 9.8 10,264

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Spatial distribution of unhappiness
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Modelling happiness and well-being

• Regression models
• Multi-level modelling approaches
• Microsimulation and Spatial Microsimulation

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Microsimulation in Economics

• First conceptualised and developed by Orcutt
  (1957)
• Since then, very successful history
• Wide range of applications tax/benefit, budget
  analysis, measurement of poverty, policy impact
  assessment etc.
• Microsimulation is an established method in
  Economics

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What is microsimulation?

• A technique aiming at building large scale data
  sets
• Modelling at the microscale
• A means of modelling real life events by
  simulating the characteristics and actions of the
  individual units that make up the system where
  the events occur

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A microsimulation approach to happiness research
A person who has had a life of misfortune, with
very little opportunities, and rather little
hope, may be more easily reconciled to
deprivations than others reared in more fortunate
and affluent circumstances. The metric of
happiness may, therefore, distort the extent of
deprivation in a specific and biased way.
(Sen, 1987 45)
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Towards geographical simulation models of
happiness

• Census of UK population
• fine geographical detail
• Small area data available only in tabular format
  with limited variables to preserve
  confidentiality
• cross-sectional

• British Household Panel Survey
• sample size more than 5,000 households
• Annual surveys (waves) since 1991
• Coarse geography
• Household attrition

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Static spatial microsimulation

• Use BHPS sample to populated Census table with
  more data
• reweighting an existing national micro-dataset to
  fit geographical areas
• Computer simulation
• attempts to minimise the error between the census
  value and the simulated value for each
  geographical area (OA)

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An extract from the BHPS
PERSON AHID PID AAGE12 SEX AJBSTAT AHLLT AQFVOC ATENURE AJLSEG
1 1000209 10002251 91 2 4 1 1 6 9
2 1000381 10004491 28 1 3 2 0 7 -8
3 1000381 10004521 26 1 3 2 0 7 -8
4 1000667 10007857 58 2 2 2 1 7 -8
5 1001221 10014578 54 2 1 2 0 2 -8
6 1001221 10014608 57 1 2 2 1 2 -8
7 1001418 10016813 36 1 1 2 1 3 -8
8 1001418 10016848 32 2 -7 2 -7 3 -7
9 1001418 10016872 10 1 -8 -8 -8 3 -8
10 1001507 10017933 49 2 1 2 0 2 -8
11 1001507 10017968 46 1 2 2 0 2 -8
12 1001507 10017992 12 2 -8 -8 -8 2 -8
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A simplified version of Census data
Small area table 1 (household type) Small area table 2 (economic activity of household head) Small area table 3 (tenure status)
Area 1 Area 1 Area 1
60 "married couple households" 80 employed/self-employed 60 owner occupier
20 "Single-person households" 10 unemployed 20 Local Authority or Housing association
20 "Other" 10 other 20 Rented privately
Area 2 Area 2 Area 2
40 "married couple households" 60 employed/self-employed 60 owner occupier
20 "Single-person households" 20 unemployed 20 Local Authority or Housing association
40 "Other" 20 other 20 Rented privately
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Tenure and car ownership example
Household car ownership characteristics Household car ownership characteristics Household car ownership characteristics Household tenure characteristics Household tenure characteristics Household tenure characteristics
1 car 2 cars No car Owner-occupier LA/HA rented Other
Simulation 27 24 49 39 17 44
Census 50 20 30 60 10 30
Absolute error 23 4 19 21 7 14
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Spatial microsimulation methodologies

• Probabilistic synthetic reconstruction techniques
  (IPF-based approaches)
• Combinatorial optimisation methods
  (hill-climbing, simulated annealing, genetic
  algorithms)
• Event modelling

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Spatial microsimulation procedures
The construction of a micro-dataset from samples
and surveys Static What-if simulations, in which
the impacts of alternative policy scenarios on
the population are estimated Dynamic modelling,
to update a basic micro-dataset and
future-oriented what-if simulations for instance
if the current government had raised income taxes
in 1997 what would the redistributive effects
(and impacts on the happiness levels!) have been
between different socio-economic groups and
between central cities and their suburbs by 2007?
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Selecting Census variables to be used as small
area constraints (1)

• Type of accommodation
• Number of rooms
• Tenure
• Amenities
• Car and van ownership
• Gender
• Age
• Marital status
• Relationship in household
• Ethnic group
• Long-term illness
• Whether working, retired, looking for work

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Selecting Census variables to be used as small
area constraints (2)

• Hours worked per week
• Occupation
• Name and address of employer
• Address of place of work
• Daily journey to work
• Degree, professional and vocational qualification
• 2001 Census new questions
• General health
• Provision of unpaid care
• Time since last paid employment
• Size of employers organisation
• Voluntary question on religion

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Selecting Census variables to be used as small
area constraints(3)

• Correlation analysis
• Regression models
• Multi-level modelling approaches

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The next step dynamic spatial microsimulation

• Household 219
• 1991  Begins married with 2 children, employed,
  owner-occupier, income 21560, happiness level 1
• 1996 Child 1 leaves home sets up new household
  with partner (tenure rented, both employed) NEW
  HOUSEHOLD FORMATION HERE (Household new399),
  happiness level 2
• 1998 Child 2 leaves home, goes to university
  (leaves the region)
• Household NEW 399
• 1996 Household formation rented accommodation
  1999 Household marries 2000 Relocation to new
  household as income increases (owner-occupied)

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The next step dynamic spatial microsimulation

• Household 1756
• 1991 Married couple with no children
  owner-occupied, happiness level 1
• 1993 Divorce male seeks new household in rented
  accommodation (new household formation),
  happiness level, 4
• 1994 Female finds partner and stays in original
  dwelling, happiness level 1
• 1996 Male finds a new partner move to
  owner-occupied, happiness level 1
• 1997 Male looses job moves to unemployed,
  happiness level drops to 4
• 1997  Female remarries move to bigger dwelling
  as household income increases
• 1998 Male reemployed
• 2000 Income increases in new male household  -
  seek relocation

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Spatial microsimulation of happiness and
well-being for policy analysis towards the
real SimCity!
http//simcity.ea.com/
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Inequality and happiness
A house may be large or small as long as the
surrounding houses are equally small it satisfies
all social demands for a dwelling. But if a
palace arises beside the little house, the little
house shrinks to a hovel and the dweller will
feel more and more uncomfortable, dissatisfied
and cramped within its four walls. (Marx and
Engels, 1848 268)
35
Happiness and inequality
When we are at home, most of us like to live in
roughly the same style as our friends or
neighbours, or better. If our friends start
giving more elaborate parties, we feel we should
do the same. Likewise if they have bigger houses
or bigger cars. (Layard, 2005 43)
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Towards geographical models of happiness

• adding a geographical dimension to explore the
  geography of well-being, based on the estimated
  database through the 1990s and early 2000s
• maps of well-being can be produced for different
  types of people (i.e. by age)
• Income and wealth inequalities and happiness
  (what does money buy you in different places?)

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Happiness and inequality
similarly at work, I compare my income with
what my colleagues get, in so far as I hear about
it. If they get a raise above inflation and I get
inflation only, I get mad. (Layard, 2005 44)
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The One Percent Is Always The Same (OPIATS) rule
This rule implies that if my income is 100,000
and I give 20,000 of it to the poor, my
well-being falls by a fifth. If I divide my
20,000 equally between ten people with incomes
of 10,000 ten peoples well-being will rise by a
fifth. The gains from this gift will thus exceed
the losses by a factor of ten. The utilitarian
case for governmental redistribution almost
always reflects this logic taxing the rich wont
do them much harm, and helping the poor will do
them a lot of good. If you look at the actual
relationship between income and outcomes like
health and happiness the OPIATS rule seldom
describes the relationship perfectly but it comes
far closer than the One Dollar is Always the
Same rule, which is the only rule under which
income inequality does not affect health or
happiness. (Jencks, 2002 57, my emphasis)
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Exploring geographies of happiness
the broad impression is that social class
stratification establishes itself primarily as a
national social structure, though there are
perhaps also some more local civic hierarchies
for instance within cities and US states. But it
should go without saying that classes are defined
in relation to each other one is higher because
the other is lower, and vice versa. The lower
class identity of people in a poor neighbourhood
is inevitably defined in relation to a hierarchy
which includes a knowledge of the existence of
superior classes who may live in other areas some
distance away.   (Wilkinson and Pickett, 2006
7, my emphasis)
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Exploring geographies of happiness

• What is the degree of happiness attained by
  different types of individuals in various
  localities and regions in Britain? Does space
  matter?
• Happiness and inequality and space rethinking
  regional economic policy
• Happiness, prosperity and regional/local GDP
  growth
• Is the source of happiness or unhappiness
  personal or it has more to do with inequalities
  in the distribution of income, wealth, skills and
  capability?
• Explore the impact of government income and
  wealth redistribution policies on happiness (e.g.
  basic income policies)

41
Happiness and inequality
while economic goods and services are obvious
important, many people believe that inequality
also affects human welfare in ways that are
independent of any given households purchasing
power. Even if my family income remains constant,
the distribution of income in my neighbourhood or
my nation may influence my childrens educational
opportunities, my life expectancy, my chance of
being robbed, the probability I will vote and
perhaps even my overall happiness. (Jencks,
2002 57)
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Links between income inequality and well-being
(Wilkinson and Picket, 2006)

• The proportion of analyses classified as wholly
  supportive falls from 83 (of all wholly
  supportive or unsupportive) in the international
  studies to 73 in the large sub-national areas,
  to 45 among the smallest spatial units.
• The spatial scale at which people make their
  social comparisons is more likely to be the
  nation state (arguably reflecting socio-economic
  position) than it is to locality (reflecting
  position within neighbourhood).

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on-going research aims

• Explore the relationship between what defines
  happiness and socio-economic phenomena, such as
  unemployment and income inequalities, by
  attempting to answer questions such as would
  society be more equal, if people were prepared to
  pay higher taxes, in order to ameliorate
  socio-economic inequalities?
• Build a geographical model of happiness that will
  be capable of providing information on the
  different degrees of happiness attained by people
  in different regions and localities, under
  alternative scenarios and happiness definitions.
• examine the relationship of happiness and
  capability, on the basis of past relevant
  research (such as the work of Sen, 1993)
• examine the possible impact of happiness of
  income and wealth redistribution
• investigate the possible impact on happiness of
  basic income policies which could increase the
  economic independence of all individuals in
  society (Van Parijs, 1997 and 2001).
• projections of how British society will look in
  the next 10 and 20 years, under alternative
  assumptions on social values.