IOE European Members Meeting

1
IOE European Members Meeting
CLIMATE CHANGE CONSEQUENCES FOR EMPLOYMENT AND
GROWTH Jorgen Randers Professor Norwegian
School of Management BI Oslo 18th September 2008
2
CHANGE IN TEMP SEA LEVEL SINCE 1850

• Temperature has increased by 0,8 C since
  preindustrial times
• Desirable to keep increase below 2 C
• Requires 50 cut in emissions by 2050

Deviation from 1961-1990
1850 1900 1950
2000
Kilde IPCC WG1, 2007
3
REPLACING FOSSIL FUELS - GLOBALLY
Source WWF International, 2007
2 yearly growth in final energy use
Increased energy efficiency (yellow)
Renewable energy (blue and green)
CO2 capture and storage (brown)
Plus stop deforestation!
Source WWF International, 2007
4
COST CURVE FOR GHG-REDUCTIONS
Source McKinsey Quarterly, No 1 2007
5
SUITABLE GROWTH AREA MOVES OUT
Source Christian Rostock, Bergfald co AS,
Report to Tomra, 0801217
6
A TREATH TO MEDITERREAN GROWTH?
Number of days with more than 30 degrees
Centigrade
7
A TREATH TO AUSTRALIAN TOURISM?
Ocean temperature starting to surpass the level
where coral reef looses its color and splendour
(starts bleaching)
Source National Geographic, Sep 2004, p.45
8
A GLOBAL SOLUTION WHAT?
9
SMALL EFFECT ON NORWAYS GDP
Reference path
Low emissions path
10
THANK YOU!
MELTING TUNDRA, SAHKA, 2006
11
HAS TEMPERATURE RISEN SINCE 1998?
Source Gavin Schmidt and Stefan Rahmstorf,
2008 http//www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives
/category/climate-science/instrumental-record/
12
EUs 20/20/20 AMBITION BY 2020
20 reduction in GHG emissions
20 more energy efficient
20 share renewable energy
13
PRICE OF GAS POWER
WITH AND WITHOUT
CO2-HANDLING
14
Rising prices of oil, gas and coal. Oil and
gas in parallel. Coal lagging Price of power
influenced by price of coal and quotas
Kilde Notat om klimaledelse, Mandag Morgen,
Oslo, 2008
15
THE CLIMATE SITUATION
SUMMARY ? The situation is worse than you
think ? The solution is cheaper than you
think ? The response develops faster than you
think ? Your own adjustment is simpler than you
think