Petroleum%20Man

1
Petroleum Man

• Presentation Based on Chapter of the Same Name in
  Crossing the Rubicon by Mike Ruppert

2
Increasing Demand

• Global demand oil and gas increasing
• New supplies not being found at the same rate
• Use 4-6 barrels for every new barrel found
• Trend getting worse
• Natural gas use is increasing, rate of
  discoveries, especially in North America is
  falling
• Population increasing.

3
Colin Campbell

• World Expert worked at BP, Amoco, FINA, Texaco
• 1 trillion barrels left
• 82 million used per day
• 35-years at present rate
• Rate is increasing, estimates 20 years
• Harder / More expensive to get

4
Colin Campbell

• Key principle
• When it takes more energy to pump a barrel of
  oil than is obtained by burning it, the field is
  considered dead, regardless of how much oil
  remains

5
The Bottom Line

• Without the sugar-coating Rupert says
• In order to prevent the extinction of the human
  race, the worlds population must be reduced by
  as many as four billion people.

6
Hydrocarbons

• World has used ½ of all hydrocarbons created over
  millions of years in just 100 years.
• 95 of all transport powered by Oil
• 50 of all produced is used for transportation

7
Hydrocarbons

• Oil pervades our civilization it is all around
  you. The shell for your computer
• is made from it. Your food comes wrapped in it.
  You brush your hair and teeth
• with it. Theres probably some in your shampoo,
  and most certainly its container.
• Your childrens toys are made from it. You take
  your trash out in it. It makes your
• clothes soft in the dryer. As you change the
  channels with the TV remote you hold
• it in your hands. Some of your furniture is
  probably made with it. It is everywhere
• inside your car. It is used in both the asphalt
  you drive on and the tires that meet
• the road. It probably covers the windows in your
  home. When you have surgery,
• the anesthesiologist slides it down your
  esophagus. Your prescription medicine is
• contained in it. Your bartender sprays the mixer
  for your drink through it. Oh yes,
• and the healthy water you carry around with you
  comes packaged in it

8
Hydrocarbons

• Be careful. If you decide that you want to throw
  this book out, your trashcan
• is probably made from it. And if you want to call
  and tell me what a scaremonger
• I am, you will be holding it in your hands as you
  dial. And if you wear corrective
• lenses, you will probably be looking through it
  as you write down a number with
• a pen that is made from it. Plastic is a
  petroleum product, and its price is every
• bit as sensitive to supply shortages as gasoline.
  Oil companies do not charge a significantly
• different price for oil they sell to a plastics
  company than they charge a
• gas station owner. If the wellhead price goes up,
  then every downstream use is
• affected. Page 23/24 Crossing the Rubicon

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Oil and the Food Supply

• Modern food 10 calories consumed for each 1
  calorie contained
• Farm machinery all uses oil.
• Fertilizers Ammonia Natural Gas
• Pesticides Oil
• Water for crops pumped by Oil
• Harvest -gt Processing Plant -gt Refrigeration -gt
  Grocery Store -gt Home

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Food Consider this

• 4 out of 6 billion people on this planet do not
  have, and want, these things.
• Economies are encouraged to grow
• One way or another, the have-nots must become
  consumers

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Food The Scariest Part

• If fertilizers, partial irrigation and
  pesticides were withdrawn corn yields, for
  example, would drop from 130 bushels per acre to
  about 30
• Same applies to wheat, lettuce, celery, onion
  anything that commercial agriculture produces.
• Organic Farming? Infrastructure not in place.
• You could ask several billion people to stop
  eating for a year or two while we switch..

12
Food Cattle

• Grain production will affect meat prices as they
  feed on it.
• Would you pay 50 for a burger or 25 for a
  chicken breast?
• The US contains 5 of the worlds population yet
  consumes 25 of the worlds energy.

13
Growth

• The whole world economy is shifting towards more
  consumption not less
• Developing world massive increase in consumer
  spending rising literacy etc
• 2002 Chinese Auto Sales jumped 50
• GM sales in China up 300 in 2002 alone

14
Petroleum Man

• Hydrocarbons have led to huge increases in human
  population

• Unsustainable peak due to the Age of Oil

15
Rational Assessments

• OK cant all be bad right? Our governments have
  planned for this right?
• Moving to alternative energy will lead to tens
  of millions of people being laid off.
• Process might take decades. Who would fund it?
• Hydrogen fuel cells are not the answer
• Electricity has to be generated.
• Move back to coal? Environmental impact

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Rational Assessments

• Production of electricity is a huge usage of
  energy
• In 1999 42 of worlds energy was used to produce
  electricity
• In 2002 50 of all electricity in the US was from
  coal-burning power plants
• Hoped natural gas would be the answer. Gas is
  running out faster than oil!

17
Rational Assessments

• US oil production peaked in the 1970s.
• Then became dependent on foreign oil.
• Whatever anyone tries to say to the contrary,
  our dependence on foreign oil is permanent and
  increasing all the time
• Oil is getting more expensive to produce
  everywhere in the world.
• Global oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s

18
Rational Assessments

• Middle East nations will peak last. Soon the
  middle east will supply 40 of the worlds oil
• Saudi Arabia has 25 of the worlds recoverable
  oil, Iraq 11.
• US population and reliance of Oil project as
  follows over the next 20 years
• Oil Consumption up 33
• Natural Gas up 50
• Electricity Demand up 45
• Overall consumption up 32
• Yet the US produces 39 less oil then in 1970

19
World Oil Reserve Figures

• The books on world oil reserves are as cooked as
  the books of Enron.
• In the producers interest to insist the supply is
  there and to inflate their reserves
• Controlling the price of oil
• Overstating reserves help maintain share prices
• Shell have been caught recently on this
  overstating reserves by 20

20
The Oil Companies Know

• Already lots of mergers and downsizing in the Oil
  world.
• According to BP-Amoco world oil production per
  capita peaked in 1979.
• Following this peak production is sinking
  downwards and this trend is not reversing.

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What is needed?

• Pimentel and Pimentel in 1996 stated
• the nations of the world must develop a plan to
  reduce the global population from near 6 billion
  to about 2 billion. If humans do not control
  their numbers, nature will.
• What is the biggest issue? Its not profitable
  to slow decline.

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Conclusion?

• The author goes to suggest such strains on the US
  economy and its thirst for oil meant Iraq and
  Afghanistan had to be secured
• He argues the attacks of 9/11 were planned by
  factions of the US government or at least
  allowed to happen to provide a pretext for war
  in Iraq
• A shock treatment was needed to get the public
  support for the war.
• Ignoring all that the issues of energy production
  peaking and the time for Petroleum Man coming
  to an end are serious for each one of us.