Climate Change Strategy How to Win

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Climate Change Strategy How to Win

• Bernard J. Bulkin
• UK Sustainable Development Commission
• Chairman, Chemrec AB

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World primary energy supply Sources and Uses of
Energy
Million Tonnes Oil equivalent per year
Total Primary Energy Supply 9640 MMTOE/YR
Source IEA World Energy Outlook
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Past Emissions
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
14
Historical emissions
7
1.9 ?
0
2104
2054
2004
1954
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The Stabilization Triangle
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
14
Currently projected path
Stabilization Triangle
Interim Goal
O
Historical emissions
7
Flat path
1.9 ?
0
2104
2054
2004
1954
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Wedges
Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year
14
14 GtC/y
Currently projected path
Seven wedges
O
Historical emissions
7 GtC/y
7
Flat path
1.9 ?
0
2104
2054
2004
1954
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What is a Wedge?
A wedge is a strategy to reduce carbon
emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0
GtC/yr.
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25
Gt(C) in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion
dollars at 100/t(C).
A solution to the Greenhouse problem should
have the potential to provide at least one wedge.
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Fill the Stabilization Triangle with Seven Wedges
Renewable Electricity and Fuels
CO2 Capture and Storage
Energy Efficiency
Conservation
14 GtC/y
Stabilization
Triangle
Fuel Switch
Forests Soils
7 GtC/y
2004
2054
Nuclear Fission
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Wedges

• EFFICIENCY
• Buildings, ground transport, industrial
  processing, lighting, electric power plants.
• DECARBONIZED ELECTRICITY
• Natural gas for coal
• Power from coal or gas with CCS
• Nuclear power
• Power from renewables wind, photovoltaics, solar
  concentrators (troughs and dishes), hydropower,
  geothermal.
• DECARBONIZED FUELS
• Synthetic fuel from coal, natural gas, and
  biofuels, with carbon capture and storage
• Biofuels
• Hydrogen
• from coal and natural gas, with carbon capture
  and storage
• from nuclear energy
• from renewable energy (hydro, wind, PV, etc.)
• FUEL DISPLACEMENT BY LOW-CARBON ELECTRICITY
• Grid-charged batteries for transport

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Efficiency and Conservation
transport
buildings
power
industry
lifestyle
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Efficiency and Conservation
transport
buildings
power
industry
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge 2 billion cars
at 4 l/100km instead of 8l/100km
lifestyle
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Wind Electricity
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge 670,000 3 MW
windmills displacing coal power. Today 40,000 MW
(2)
Prototype of 80 m tall Nordex 2,5 MW wind turbine
located in Grevenbroich, Germany (Danish Wind
Industry Association)
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Pholtovoltaic Power and Solar Thermal
Effort Needed by 2054 2000 GWpeak (700 times
current capacity) 2 million hectares
Solar thermal power via concentrators (troughs
and dishes) is produced at high efficiency, like
PV.
Graphics courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program
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Solar Century
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Solar Century
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Biofuels
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge Two billion 4
l/100 km cars running on biofuels 250 million
hectares of high-yield crops (one sixth of world
cropland)
But is there a better way?
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The Chemrec Solution The Pulp Mill becomes a
BioRefinery
Pulp
In Typical 5-600 MW
Black liq. energy
Chemrec fuels DME/MeOH/H2
Chemrec Plant
Biomass
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Technology The Route through Gasification and
Synthesis Gas to Fuels and Chemicals
Coal
SyntheticHydrocarbons (F-T)
Oil products
Synthesis gas(COH2)
Methanol
Natural gas
GASIFICATION
DME(DiMetylEther)
Biomass
Hydrogen
Black liquor
Cooking chemicals in Black Liquor serve as
catalyzers, which helps make the Chemrec process
efficient
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Power with Carbon Capture and Storage
Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge Carbon
capture and storage at 800 large coal power
plants.
Graphics courtesy of DOE Office of Fossil Energy
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Effort needed by 2054 for 1 wedge 700 GW (twice
current capacity) displacing coal power.
Nuclear
Electricity
Phase out of nuclear power creates the need for
another half wedge.
Graphic courtesy of NRC
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What do we conclude from all this?

• No one thing will solve the climate problem
• There are lots of possible wedges that make
  material contributions to stabilizing greenhouse
  gas concentrations
• Each country/region must choose what is most
  appropriate
• Efficiency will always be a part of the solution
• And we must start now

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