Getting to grips with the real challenges: myths, misconceptions and realities regarding qualificati

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Getting to grips with the real challenges myths,
misconceptions and realities regarding
qualifications

• Tim Oates
• Group Director
• Assessment, Research Development
• Cambridge Assessment

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• Dispelling 10 key myths in order to understand
  better the reality of qualifications
• All the analysis is underpinned by evidence

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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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The myth of 20,000
The figure of 20,000 has entered public
discourse and has stuck in peoples minds. This
figure in fact derives from a request by Sir
William Stubbs (then Chief Executive of FEFC) to
the FEFC data unit, prior to the formation of QCA
in 1997. It is a highly problematic figure, and
was simply the total number of qualifications
known to FEFC. Crucially, it did NOT exclude
duplicate entries on the database (errors) the
same qualification offered by a different
awarding body old versions of revised
qualifications and completely redundant
qualifications. It should not be used as a
system reference. The English, NI and Welsh
baseline for accredited qualifications is
provided by the National Database of Accredited
Qualifications (NDAQ) http//www.accreditedqualifi
cations.org.uk/ and this yields a number of 5850
at May 2007. Oates T 2007
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The reality of numbers of qualifications in
state systems England and Germany
Advanced level study In Germany the Abitur
essentially refers to the final exams only. These
generally consist of sets of written examinations
and oral examinations. The Abitur usually
requires specialisation in four subject areas.
The subjects covered in these examinations vary
according to the specialisation chosen by the
pupil during the last 2-3 years at a Gymnasium
(grammar school equivalent). It is essential to
note that individual German states have a measure
of independence in the design of its educational
systems with respect to federal laws. The Abitur
differs in different states. Hauptschulabschluss
and the Realschulabschluss are lower level school
leaving certificates which do not allow
matriculation in HE. Advanced qualifications
summary comparison While the A level and Abitur
are very different in form, the degree of
variation within each of the two systems is
comparable. It cannot be claimed that one is more
coherent than the other certainly, the German
system is not startlingly more coherent.
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The reality of numbers of qualifications in
state systems England and Germany

• There are 5850 qualifications on the QCA
  database, of which 938 are mainstream general
  academic qualifications. The bulk of the
  remainder are vocationally-oriented or
  miscellaneous in type. This give an approximate
  figure of 4800 vocational qualifications and
  other qualifications.
• This is comparable to the 4,070 in the German
  system
• 150 FT State-specific qualifications
• 420 vocational qualifications in the Dual System
  of Apprenticeship (3yr employment-based
  programmes in which around 50 of the 16-19
  cohort participate)
• 3,000 chamber of commerce qualifications
• 500 continuing education qualifications

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Trends in Germany

• General education
• Convergence on national standards for Abitur
  assessment in the wake of PISA 2000 results
  implementation of uniform standards of education
  for sixth form students throughout Germany (years
  12 to 13) in 2010.
• Weigel TM 2004 Loick A 2008
• Vocational education and training
• Increasing adaptation of national training
  standards to employer requirements, introduction
  of Lernfeld Theorie
• Steedman H 2002 Fuhrmann N 2008

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• the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of A
  levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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GCE subjects at Advanced level available in 1951

• Pure Mathematics
• Mathematics Pure
• Mathematics Applied
• Physics
• Chemistry
• Botany
• Zoology
• Biology
• Geology
• Art
• Music
• Domestic Subjects
• Geometrical and machine drawing
• Woodwork
• Handicraft (woodwork metal work combined)
• TOTAL 32

• English Literature
• Geography
• History
• Ancient History
• English Economic History
• British Constitution
• Economics
• Elementary Statistical Method and Accounting
• Religious Knowledge
• Latin
• Greek
• French
• German
• Spanish
• Italian
• Russian
• Any other approved language

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GCE, AVCE, subjects available or in development
2002
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Most common combinations of A level subjects
2005
Source Cambridge Assessment A level Choice
Report 2007
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A level choiceImportance of reasons for choosing
AS or A2 subjects proportion of times each
reason was rated as Very important
Source Cambridge Assessment A level Choice
Report 2007
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Evidence of an inadequate number of
routes/qualifications
Ancient history 21st C science Growth of
interdisciplinary areas Maths

• Internal conflict in QCA
• Representations of subject associations
• 2001 AS awarding problems
• Reducing participation
• Standards over time studies
• Discussion re maths unit for Engineering Diploma

Contradictions of participation versus high
attainment for specialist 1st cycle HE
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GCE Advanced level number of qualifications
Advanced level 1951 32 First year 1997
104 Pre C2K 2006 80 A-level 91 A/AS
level GCSE 1997 165 2006 89
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of A
  levels
• the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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Parity of esteem
Raised as a chimera by Oates and Hillier in
1997 GNVQs as a developing HE access
route Academic drift in the middle
route Sorry whats the question again? a
common response outside UK The balance of gen ed
and voc ed in VET in Europe
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• the myth of parity of esteem
• the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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A coherent system
Qualifications equated regarding
difficulty Interesting cases Australia
psychology and occupational qualifications Coher
ence seen as too many qualifications from too
many bodies - in fact increase started with the
CSE boards and is culiminating in the Foster
recommendations for enterprises and FE colleges
to become awarding bodies When does market
sensitivity become incoherence? Coherence as a
preoccupation with system tidiness The
artefacts introduced by the pursuit of
coherence Interesting cases NVQ3 exclusion,
funding anomalies inefficiencies
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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Short duration training
The crisis of youth unemployment in the 1980s
The development of short duration training and
outcomes based quals The destruction of the
internal economics of long duration initial
training
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NVQ ownership issues
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• the myth of the value of short duration training
• the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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Outcomes
Development of unitised qualifications
independent of the location, duration, or nature
of learning were not interested in learning
and knowledge can be inferred from effective
performance - Jessup 1990 The importance of
values and underpinning knowledge -Eraut The
extent to which what you can do and know is
determined by how you learn - Oates, Newble and
Clarke Process knowledge and professional
socialisation - Boreham, Germany
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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Tracked systems
The Tomlinson Report and the 14-19 Review
strongly advocates a unified system Evidence
from the industrial performance of Germany,
Switzerland, Netherlands
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• the myth of rational choice
• 9 the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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Rational choice
The dominant model in policy formation regarding
routes, subject selection etc is rational
choice Predicated on perfect knowledge and
long term planning regarding goals and
aspirations The analysis of luck The
prevalence of localised rationality - Bloomer
and Hogdkinson The issue of the concentration of
knowledge and skills The continued premium
attached to maths and numerate subjects The
problem of pockets of acute deprivation - self
destructive culture The funding pressures on
schools and colleges
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• the myth of rational choice
• the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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Ever-increasingly flexibility
England low in OECD rank for 16-19 retention
(middle 20s), highest in EU for LLL
indicators Dropping back in is not easy -
Social Exclusion Unit research Dual System
appears inflexible but is not, based on high
levels of initial qualification, socialisation
into work, and general education components. 40
gain employment in a track other than the one for
which they have trained Strong motivational
factors through licence to practice Strong
labour market linkage and labour market signals
through apprenticeship - cultural commitment
linked to structure. Leitchs emotional
contract unlikely to be enough, particularly in
recession
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• 1 the myth of twenty thousand qualifications
• 2 the myth of narrowness and inflexibility of
  A levels
• 3 the myth of parity of esteem
• 4 the myth of a coherent system
• 5 the myth of the value of short duration
  training
• 6 the myth of the absolute utility of outcomes
• 7 the myth of the defects of tracked systems
• 8 the myth of rational choice
• the myth of ever-increasing flexibility
• 10 the myth of graduate level expansion in
  employment

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• Based on an analysis of global trends in
  education, employment and the labour market, we
  challenge the policy focus on upgrading the
  skills of the workforce, as it will fail to meet
  its policy objectives. Without a broader
  industrial strategy, high skills are a declining
  source of competitive advantage, given the
  exponential increase in the global supply of
  knowledge workers. Equally, the assumption that
  it would take decades for emerging economies to
  compete for high-end manufacturing and services,
  including research and development, have been
  rapidly undermined.Global competition is now
  based on quality and price, transforming the
  relationship between education, jobs and rewards.
  While we identify a need for further detailed
  analysis of these issues, there is enough
  evidence to suggest that the human capital
  assumption on which government policy rests is no
  longer fit for purpose.
• Towards a High-Skilled, Low-Waged Workforce? A
  Review of Global Trends in Education, Employment
  and the Labour Market Monograph No. 10 October
  2008 Phillip Brown, David Ashton, Hugh Lauder and
  Gerbrand Tholen

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• In the UK
• Economically active people with qualification at
  level 4 or above 33
• Jobs which require workers to have a
  qualification at this level 30
• UK jobs that do not require any qualifications on
  entry 28
• issues paper 18, Nov 2008 Skills policy in
  Scotland and England after Leitch Jonathan Payne
  Skope

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• In the UK
• Hollowing out of the labour market
• Increase in the number of jobs which only require
  3 months of training
• Skill shortages are actually low, by
  international comparisons
• The growth in high skilled jobs is occurring at a
  slower rate than in other countries
• The growth in our numbers of high skilled people
  significantly exceeds the growth in our numbers
  of high skill jobs
• Wage premium remains high by international
  standards
• Ambition 2020 UKCES 2009

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Utility argumentReturns to different subjects in
Higher Education
OECD on returns to Higher Education 7 per cent in
Italy and Japan 10-15 per cent in France and the
Netherlands 17 per cent in the UK There are
markedly different rewards for different
subjects. Economics graduates, for instance, had
rates of return running at 35 per cent higher
than arts graduates. Ian Walker (University of
Warwick) Occupational earnings for a female
graduate in law or politics degrees were, on
average, 26 per cent higher than the earnings of
an otherwise identical social studies
graduate Jeremy Smith Robin Naylor (Warwick)
Abigail McKnight (LSE)
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Whats it all going to look like for the next ten
years?

• Short duration training likely to be insufficient
  
• Further retrenchment into state provision
• More young people in VET and GenEd for longer
• What will motivate them when they are there?
• How can we afford it?
• In which sectors will resurgence occur?
• Are Diplomas too grand a structure, demanding
  over-specialisation?
• Can we arrest the downwards ratchet of employer
  commitment to initial VET - will we be further
  away from or nearer towards a high quality, mass
  participation employment-based route?