Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

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ForesightFlood and Coastal Defence Project
FCDS/2003/09

• Project Overview 18 November 2003

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Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

• This slideshow provides a brief overview of the
  work of the Foresight project on flood and
  coastal defence
• as of 17 November 2003
• (Note a full draft report of the work-to date is
  also posted on this website)

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Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project

• The work is divided into three stages
• Phase 1 Planning of project (completed in 2002)
• Phase 2 Analysing the drivers of future flood
  risk and assessing their future impacts (work
  completed around June 2003 currently nearing
  the end of the peer review process)
• Phase 3 Considering how the UK could respond to
  the challenges identified in Phase 2 work due
  to be completed by Christmas 2003
• Phase 4 Communication of results (final
  conference around April 2004)

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Overall picture of what weve done

• We have looked ahead 2030 2100 and analysed the
  drivers of future flood risk we have identify
  which are most important, and which are most
  uncertain

We have used a state of the art risk model
(called RASP) to quantify risks for England and
Wales.
We have also looked at urban areas to assess
future drivers and risks
We have produced an overview of the results in
tables
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The baseline flood management assumptionIn
Phase 2, we have modelled the drivers of future
flood risk (due to climate change and changes in
society), and analysed future risks but using a
baseline assumption that flood defence
expenditure and policies remain unchanged. In so
doing we are seeking to identify where the
biggest challenges could lie in the future, and
where policies need to be reviewed.
Flood risks Economic Social Environ-mental
Societal
Flooding system
Drivers
Flood management
Climatic
Current flood management cost and approach assumed
Future scenarios
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• What are the main drivers of future flood risk ?
• Phase 2 has identified the main drivers of future
  flood risk for four possible future scenarios
  (these scenarios embody both societal and climate
  change).
• The next slide ranks the most important drivers
  for each scenario for the 2050s and also the
  2080s, and for each of the four scenarios. This
  shows, for example that storm surges are
  important in most scenarios and that many
  socio-economic drivers are also.

North-east
North-west
Midlands
East Anglia
Wales
South-east
South-west

IFM as percentage of 10km x 10km grid cell
0
50
100
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Kilometres
Foresight - Future Flood Risks
Percentage of Indicative Flood Plain
5 - 20
per 10km x 10km grid cell
20 - 50
Date
Revision
June 2003
1.01
gt 50
or civil proceedings.
Drawing number
Job number
CDS 0438
Department of Trade and Industry. 100037208. 2003.
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Which are the biggest drivers of future flood
risk ?
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How uncertain are the effects of the drivers?

• Phase 2 has assessed the uncertainty for each of
  the drivers, for each of the scenarios.
• Unfortunately the drivers with the most impact
  are often the most uncertain see next slide.
• The key implication is that future policies need
  to be flexible and robust so that they can work
  adequately well under a wide range of future
  possibilities.

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How uncertain are their impacts on flood risk ?
 
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The work has used a risk modelling
tool (called RASP) to assess future risk for
England and Wales (Scotland and Wales have been
assessed separately since the databases used by
RASP are not available for those parts of the
country).The following slides give a flavour of
the results the maps in blue provide todays
level of risk and those in red detail changes in
risk between now and the future. The maps
correspond to people at high risk and economic
damage for one of the scenarios in the 2050s and
all scenarios in the 2080s.The plots show a
complex pattern of changes in the future very
dependant on the scenario (see draft report on
the website for an analysis of the plots)
Where and how big might the future flood risks
be?
 
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Changes in risk people at high risk
 
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Changes in risk economic damage (property)
 
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What are the risks for future coastal erosion
?Phase 2 has assessed risks of future coastal
erosion and has compared these with the risks for
flooding see next slide. These show a marked
degree of coincidence, particularly around the
South-East coast. Together, the risks from
waves surges and coastal erosion will combine to
substantially increase risks on the coast (up to
30-fold in some scenarios)
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Flooding erosion where they coincide
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Assessing environmental impacts
Phase 2 has also assessed environmental impacts
under the baseline assumption that flooding
policies are not changed. The next slide provides
some of the key conclusions
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Future impacts on the environment

• Floodplain and coastal systems will change due
  to both changes in floods and their management,
  and other changes
• The four scenarios suggest quite divergent
  environmental futures
• Some habitats appear threatened under all
  futures, especially coastal grazing marsh.

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Summary of future flood risks for the 2080sThe
following table provides an overview of the main
risks in the 2080s. It lists the main drivers
how those drivers scale the risks the
uncertainty in the drivers (High, Medium or Low)
the annual financial damages and where the
damages will occur.The table shows, in
particular, that total annual damages could
increase from around 1 billion today to between
1.5 and 23 billion by the 2080s depending on
scenario.
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Key Flood Risk Drivers and Expected Annual
Damages (million) - 2080s
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That concludes the overview of Phase 2. The
next slides explain the work that is now
Progressing in Phase 3 this is considering how
the UK might respond to the challenges
identified.
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Phase 3 Assessment of options for managing
future flood risk
Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project
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Phase 3 is trying to answer the following
strategic questions

• What signposts can the project provide in
  ensuring policies that meet the threats
  identified for the medium term, whilst allowing
  for long-term flexibility?
• What banana skins need to be avoided now, and
  why?
• Where are the most important areas of uncertainty
  that could usefully be addressed by further work
  beyond the project?

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• Phase 3 - the overall approach
• The first step is to identify and group to
  responses these are grouped into five themes
• Managing the rural landscape
• Managing the urban fabric
• Managing flood events
• Managing and reducing impacts of flooding on
  the individual
• Engineering and realignment of defences

Identify responses
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Phase 3 - the overall approach The next step is
to assess the usefulness and effectiveness of
individual responses, and to rank them. This
analysis will also consider governance and
sustainability implications of implementing the
responses.
Assess rank individual responses
Identify responses
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Phase 3 - the overall approach Assessing
individual responses will tell us a great deal
it will provide signposts towards the types of
responses and policies that are likely to be most
effective and robust in the future. However in
real life, individual responses are combined. The
project will therefore identify groups of
responses which will be assessed against the four
future scenarios.
Assess rank individual responses
Identify responses
Develop group of responses
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Phase 3 - the overall approach The costs of
implementing the group of responses is then
assessed, and the resulting flooding risks
evaluated. This allows us to compare and contrast
the usefulness and effectiveness of the responses
for each scenario.
Assess costs of response group
Assess rank individual responses
Identify responses
Comparison synthesis
Develop group of responses
Assess likely risks for response group for each
scenario
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Governance and sustainability issues

• In assessing the responses, we will consider
  issues questions of governance and sustainability
  for example
• Who pays?
• What regulatory barriers will affect delivery of
  responses?
• How will public expectation change and best be
  managed?
• What are the environmental social impacts?

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Incorporating Radical Thinking

• In performing the analysis of responses, we are
  aiming to inject radical ideas. This will be
  done in two ways
• Considering new types of responses for example
  from abroad, or from new areas of science
• Connecting flood management experts with science
  communities that they do not normally meet. Ten
  possible areas of science have been identified,
  and one is being piloted in the field of sensors.
  

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What happens next?
Foresight Flood and Coastal Defence Project
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The analysis will be complete by the end of 2003
Analysis
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The analysis will be complete by the end of 2003
The views of key stakeholders will then be sought

Analysis
Stakeholder consideration and peer review
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The analysis will be complete by the end of 2003
The views of key stakeholders will then be sought

Analysis
Stakeholder consideration and peer review
Agreeing integrated action plan
OST will work with the key stakeholders to agree
post-project action plans
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Launch events The project will end at the end
around April 2004. At that time OST will organise
a major technical conference to present the
results, and to set out the action plans that
stakeholders have constructed. Details of the
end event will be posted on the project website
in due course
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• END