APNIC Depletion of the IPv4 free address pool

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APNICDepletion of the IPv4 free address pool
IPv6 deploymentThe day after!!

• 8 August 2008
• Queenstown, New Zealand

In conjunction with APAN
Cecil Goldstein, Training Manager
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Acknowledgements

• This presentation includes material and
  information from Geoff Huston (APNIC Chief
  Scientist)

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IPv4 countdown
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http//www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/index.html
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Let us imagine that today is the day after!!!
22 December 2011
And...you need IP address space What
happens?? What will the Internet look like
? What will you do?
192.168.1.1
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Well, that will depend on what happens between
now and22 Dec 2011
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• So let us consider then where we are NOW and how
  we may move to THEN.

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IP Addresses what makes the internetThe
Internet
IPv4 \IPv6
Allocation

Allocation
Assignment
In some cases via an NIR such as KRNIC
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The address infrastructure today
2004
Number Resource Organization
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What is APNIC?

• Regional Internet Registry (RIR) for the Asia
  Pacific region
• Responsible for distributing Internet resources
  throughout the AP region
• Industry self-regulatory body
• Consensus-based, open, and transparent
  decision-making and policy development
• Meetings and mailing lists
• Open to anyone
• http//www.apnic.net/meetings/23/index.html
• http//www.apnic.net/community/lists/index.html

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RIR policy development process
OPEN
Need
Anyone can participate
Discuss
Evaluate
TRANSPARENT
BOTTOM UP
Implement
Consensus
Internet community proposes and approves policy
All decisions and policies documented and freely
available to anyone
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Global policy coordination
RIPE NCC
AfriNIC
NRO
ASO
ICANN
APNIC
LACNIC
ARIN

• The main function of ASO
• ASO receives global policies and policy process
  details from the NRO
• ASO forwards global policies and policy process
  details to ICANN board

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APNIC address policy
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Policy proposals for APNIC 26
prop-050 IPv4 address transfers prop-055
Global policy for the allocation of the remaining
IPv4 address space prop-062 Use of final
/8 prop-063 Reducing timeframe of IPv4
allocations from twelve to six months prop-066
Ensuring efficient use of historical IPv4
resources
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The growth of the Internet and IPv4 unallocated
address space exhaustion
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IPv4 Address Pool June 2005
Other
Central Registry

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available
APNIC
RIPE NCC
AfriNIC
LACNIC
ARIN
source http//potaroo.net
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IPv4 IANA address pool March 2008
Other
Central Registry

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available
APNIC
RIPE NCC
AfriNIC
LACNIC
ARIN
source http//potaroo.net
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Projected lifetime of remaining IPv4 addresses
RIRs pool depletion 2nd half of 2011
IANA pool depletition 1st Half of 2011
Current free pool 41 x /8
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IPv4 address space issued - RIRs to
customersFirst quarter (to March ) 2008
/8s
(First Quarter 2008)
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IPv4 address consumption prediction

• Assumptions
• Tomorrow is a lot like today
• Trends visible in the recent past continue into
  the future
• This model assumes that there will be
• no panic
• no change in policies
• no change in the underlying demand dynamics
• no rationing
• no withholding or hoarding!
• No really!

Ref IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by
Geoff Huston, Sept 2007
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So what will happen after the exhaustion?

• The Internet will not stop but its growth will be
  impacted
• Who will be impacted?
• ISPs
• Sustaining their business models will become more
  difficult unless you have huge IPv4 address
  blocks
• End users
• Cost of access to the Internet will increase

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Some possible scenarios

• What will happen after the IPv4 unallocated
  address space exhaustion?
• Persist in IPv4 networks using more NATs
• Address markets emerging for IPv4
• Routing fragmentation
• IPv6 deployment/ transition

Ref IPv4 unallocated address space exhaustion by
Geoff Huston, Sept 2007
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Address market ?
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IPv6 deployment

• Issues and concerns

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IPv6 current deployment status

• Not many cases of production networks
• Not many business cases
• Quite a few research and experimental networks
• Some statistics to review

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IPv4 vs IPv6
250,000
27,000
IPv4
IPv4 ASN
850
1,000
IPv6 ASN
IPv6
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APNIC IPv6 delegations by year
As of this date
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Issues

• Obviously not many production networks deployed
• Gap in understanding between front line network
  engineers and decision makers
• CEOs and CIOs do not seem interested or aware
  enough to make investments not making tangible
  profit
• Commercial value

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Where are we heading?

• We should look to preserve the functionality and
  integrity of the Internet as a service platform
• Functionality of applications
• Viability of routing
• Capability to sustain continued growth
• Integrity of the network infrastructure

https//www.ripe.net/ripe/meetings/ripe-55/present
ations/huston-ipv4.pdf
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But this is not all..?

• We are running into exhaustion of the 16-bit AS
  Number pool
• Estimated exhaustion time 1200 UTC 1 November
  2010
• See http//www.potaroo.net/tools/asns

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RIRs and 32-bit AS Numbers

• From 1 January 2007 the RIRs are allocating
  32-bit AS numbers (upon specific request)
• From 1 January 2009 the RIRs will be allocating
  32-bit AS numbers by default (leaving some 16-bit
  AS numbers available upon specific request)

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Conclusion

• Plan
• Compare
• Prepare
• Test
• Deploy
• IPv6 is not a new product to sell..it is a means
  to sustainability

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Thank you!

• www.apnic.net