Title: Original sin
1The Pain and the Mystery of Original Sin
Barry Eichengreen Ricardo Hausmann Ugo Panizza
2Outline and Summary
- Definition and Facts
- Most countries do not borrow abroad in their own
currencies, a problem we refer to as original
sin - If a country has a net foreign debt, this creates
an aggregate currency mismatch - Of course a country can decide not to have a
mismatch by not borrowing or holding a lot of
reserves - Pain
- We show that original sin is associated with
limited XR flexibility, high volatility, low
credit ratings - Mystery
- We show that standard explanations based on poor
policies or institutions do not do a good job at
explaining original sin
3Work on Original Sin
- First papers on the topic
- Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999)
- Hausmann, Panizza, and Stein (2001)
- Hausmann and Panizza (2003)
- Original Sin book
- Cespedes, Chang and Velasco, Corsetti and
Mackowiak, Jeanne, Jeanne and Zettelmeyer,
Flandreau and Sussman, Bordo, Meissner and
Redish, Chamon and Hausmann - Critics
- Goldstein and Turner (2003)
- Burger and Warnock (2003)
- Reinhart, Rogoff, and Savastano (2003)
- Eichengreen, Hausmann, and Panizza (2003)
4Definition
- Eichengreen and Hausmann (1999) definition a
situation in which the domestic currency is not
used to borrow abroad or to borrow long term even
domestically - Here we mostly focus on international original
sin - Better data on international original sin
- Domestic original sin seems easier to solve and
some countries are doing progress in this
direction - However, we also try to say something on
domestic original sin
5A first look at the problem Distribution of
international debt by issuers and currencies
(1999-2001)
1
0.9
Debt by
currency
0.8
Debt by
country
0.7
5.6 trillion
0.6
4.5 trillion
0.5
0.4
0.3
USA
Euroland
Japan
UK
Switzerland
Canada
Australia
6Is this because countries do their local currency
funding on the home market and foreign currency
funding abroad?
100
90
Debt by currency
632 billion
80
70
60
473 billion
50
40
30
Debt by country
20
10
0
USA
EURO
JAPAN
CANADA
UK
7Measurement
- Measuring original sin is not straightforward
- In principle, we want to measure external
liabilities in own currency as a share of total
external liabilities - We use data gathered by the BIS on the currency
denomination of bonds and money market
instruments - We also consider BIS data on cross-border bank
lending, although the data are less complete
(both in country coverage and currency breakdown)
8Main index used in the paper
ö
æ
currency
in
Securities
i
ç
-
0
,
1
max
3
OSIN
ç
i
country
by
issued
Securities
i
ø
è
It captures opportunities for hedging through
swaps It recognizes that you cannot hedge more
than 100 percent of your debt
9Alternative indexes
i
i
country
by
issued
currency
in
securities
-
OSIN1
1
i
country
by
issued
securities
Uses bank loans
OSIN2
Like OSIN3 but can take negative values
OSIN3b
10Measures of original sin by country groupings
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Financial Centers
Euroland
Other Developed
Developing
OSIN1
OSIN3
11Original Sin in Developing Countries
12Original sin is highly persistent OSIN and
Flandreau-Sussman classification (circa 1850)
13The Pain of Original Sin
14- Exchange rate flexibility
- Output and capital flow volatility
- Credit ratings
15Original Sin and Exchange Rate Flexibility
- If an original sin country has a net foreign
debt, then there is an aggregate currency
mismatch. Movements in the RER will have an
aggregated wealth effect - This renders the CB less willing to let the
exchange rate move (fear of floating, Calvo and
Reinhart, 2002) - As a consequence, the CB holds more reserves and
uses them, together with the interest rate, to
intervene in the foreign exchange market
(Hausmann, Panizza, Stein, 2001)
16Original Sin and Exchange Rate Flexibility
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Dropping Financial Centers
LYS
RESM2
RVER
LYS
RESM2
RVER
OSIN3
1.503
0.248
-
0.801
1.112
0.339
-
0.598
(3.56)
(3.74)
(2.02)
(2.45)
(3.10)
(1.33)
GDP_PC
0.302
-
0.053
0.026
0.285
-
0.052
0.025
(2.89)
(1.85)
(0.61)
(2.77)
(1.81)
(0.56)
OPEN
0.198
-
0.014
1.017
0.153
-
0.014
1.021
(0.92)
(0.41)
(2.88)
(0.72)
(0.41)
(2.93)
EXD/GDP
0.290
-
0.036
-
0.570
0.297
-
0.030
-
0.544
(0
.96)
(0.66)
(2.36)
(0.98)
(0.54)
(2.29)
Constant
-
2.188
0.531
0.104
-
1.644
0.435
-
0.084
(1.94)
(1.73)
(0.17)
(1.46)
(1.35)
(0.13)
Observations
75
65
65
71
62
62
R
-
squared
0.37
0.62
0.34
0.65
17Original Sin and Exchange Rate Flexibility
- The results are generally robust to alternative
definitions of original sin, to dropping weights,
and to augmenting the regressions with a
developing country dummy - Causality is a big issue (Burnside, Eichenbaum,
and Rebelo, 2001) - IV regressions confirm the results but instrument
(SIZE) is lousy - We tried to go in the other direction. OSIN on
the left and LYS on the right instrumented with
openness. We found no correlation between LYS and
OSIN - Using lagged OSIN in a panel confirms the results
- Devereux and Lane (2003)
18Original Sin, Output and Capital Flow Volatility
- Original sin limits the scope and effectiveness
of counter-cyclical policies (Cespedes, Chang and
Velasco, 2003) - Original Sin limits the CB ability of acting as a
LOLR (Chang and Velasco, 2000) - Dollar liabilities are likely to increase the
cost of a currency crisis - Dollar liabilities could be associated with
Sudden Stops in capital flows (Calvo, Izquierdo
and Mejia, 2003)
19Original Sin, Output and Capital Flow Volatility
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Dropping Financial Centers
VOL_GROWTH
VOL_FLOW
VOL_GROWTH
VOL_FLOW
OSIN3
0.011
7.
103
0.015
7.498
(1.96)
(3.58)
(2.45)
(2.69)
LGDP_PC
-
0.012
-
3.214
-
0.012
-
3.322
(2.14)
(2.56)
(2.09)
(2.40)
OPEN
-
0.001
-
4.181
-
0.000
-
4.333
(0.12)
(1.20)
(0.08)
(0.83)
VOL_TOT
-
0.000
0.223
-
0.000
0.223
(0.86)
(1.08)
(0.89)
(1.02
)
SHARE2
-
0.014
0.147
-
0.015
0.949
(1.72)
(0.04)
(1.51)
(0.14)
Constant
0.135
32.825
0.131
33.282
(2.25)
(2.39)
(2.15)
(2.22)
Observations
77
33
73
29
R
-
squared
0.40
0.64
0.40
0.62
20Original Sin and Credit Ratings
- If a countrys debt is denominated in foreign
currency, its capacity to pay will not be related
to its LCU GDP but to its dollar GDP - Original Sin makes the real exchange rate matter
for debt service - This is important because in developing countries
the volatility of dollar GDP is much higher than
the volatility of LCU GDP, and sudden drops of
dollar GDP are usually associated with much
smaller drops in real GDP - Other things equal, countries with Original Sin
should be riskier than countries that borrow in
own currency
21Original Sin and Credit Ratings
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
RATING
RATING
RATING
RATING
Dropping Financial
Centers
OS
IN3
-
5.845
-
5.644
-
5.214
-
4.955
(4.08)
(4.01)
(3.31)
(3.21)
DE_GDP
-
2.421
-
2.285
(2.50)
(2.32)
DE_RE
-
0.999
-
0.975
(2.49)
(2.39)
LGDP_PC
2.916
2.670
2.976
2.729
(8.48)
(6.16)
(8.36)
(5.97)
SHARE2
2.187
2.
787
1.810
2.405
(1.43)
(1.52)
(1.09)
(1.18)
Constant
-
8.058
-
5.962
-
9.119
-
7.037
(2.12)
(1.28)
(2.29)
(1.44)
Observations
56
49
53
46
22The Mystery of Original Sin
23Key Question from this Point of View
- Does the inability to borrow internationally in
domestic currency reflect problems with country
policies and institutions or systematic problems? - We argue that the problem is too pervasive (and
too weakly correlated with country
characteristics) to be entirely explicable on the
first set of grounds.
24Five possible explanations
- Underdevelopment of institutions and policies in
general - Inadequate monetary credibility
- Fiscal profligacy
- Weak contract enforcement
- Political economy stories
25Original Sin and the Level of Development
(1)
(2)
(3)
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
LGDP_PC
-
0.141
-
0.128
-
0.170
(1.59)
(1.43)
(2.99)
SIZE
-
0.310
-
0.310
-
0.415
(3.37)
(3.33)
(4.51)
FIN_CENTER
-
0.680
(1.99)
EUROLAND
-
0.126
-
0.152
(0.62)
(0.74)
OTH_DEVELOPED
0.007
-
0.021
(0.03)
(0.10)
Constant
2.522
2.414
2.833
(3.39)
(3.24)
(5.46)
Observations
75
71
75
26Original Sin and Monetary Credibility
- Lack of monetary credibility is the true cause of
Original Sin (Jeanne, 2002) - The government has an incentive to inflate away
domestic currency debt held by foreigners, and
the presence of foreign currency debt can act as
commitment device and improve credibility
(Tirole, 2002, Calvo and Guidotti, 1990) - Why dont we observe inflation indexed debt?
(Chamon, 2002)
27Original Sin and Monetary Credibility
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Dropping
Financial
Centers
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
AV_INF
0.306
0.436
(1.19)
(0.69)
AV_INF2
-
0.116
(0.23)
MAX_INF
0.067
(0.95)
INF
0.085
0.083
0.175
(1.09)
(1.07)
(2.08)
SIZE
-
0.318
-
0.318
-
0.316
-
0.318
-
0.318
-
0.503
(3.57)
(3.54)
(3.52)
(3.55)
(3.50)
(5.75)
FIN_CENTER
-
0.866
-
0.897
-
0.857
-
0.881
(2.88)
(2.99)
(2.83)
(2.93)
EUROLAND
-
0.304
-
0.329
-
0.296
-
0.315
-
0.318
(2.12)
(2.31)
(1.99)
(2.21)
(2.21)
OTH_DEVELOPED
-
0.199
-
0.224
-
0.192
-
0.211
-
0.213
(1.47)
(1.67)
(1.37)
(1.56)
(1.57)
Constant
1.277
1.310
1.259
1.346
1.347
1.358
(10.87)
(11.60)
(8.83)
(13.56)
(13.46)
(13.41)
Observations
74
74
74
74
70
74
28Original Sin and Monetary Credibility
.363081
RUS
ARG
UKR
P
ER
ROM
NIC
e( OSIN3 X)
-
.893699
-
.246179
1.48963
e( AV_INF X )
29Original Sin and Monetary Credibility
- Low inflation seems to be a necessary but not
sufficient condition for escaping Original Sin - Results are robust to longer lags (1970s)
- They are robust to instrumenting inflation with
an index of CB independence
30Original Sin and Fiscal Solvency
- A government with weak fiscal accounts has an
incentive to debase its currency in order to
erode the value of its real obligations (Lucas
and Stokey, 1983) - Corsetti and Mackowiack (2002) find that there is
a vicious circle in which, in the presence of
weak public finances, a large stock of foreign
currency debt limits the ability to borrow in
domestic currency
31Original Sin and Fiscal Solvency
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
(7)
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
DE_GDP
-
0.073
0.050
(0.50)
(0.31)
DEFICIT
1.777
(0.92)
DE_RE
0.014
(0.24)
FISC
-
0.025
-
0.024
(0.30)
(0.28)
DE_GDPDEV
0.247
(0.88)
DE_
GDPIND
-
0.186
(1.13)
SIZE
32Original Sin and Contract Enforcement
- Investors are reluctant to lend in countries
where the institutions designed to enforce their
claims are weak - Chamon (2002) and Aghion, Bacchetta and Banerjee
(2001) show that if depreciation and default risk
are correlated and, if in case of default, assets
are divided among creditors in proportion to
their nominal claims, domestic currency market
will disappear - This problem could be solved if courts could
enforce complicated contracts that distinguish
among creditors of different seniority
33Original Sin and Contract Enforcement
(1)
(2)
(3)
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
RULEOFLAW
-
0.050
-
0.053
-
0.182
(0.46)
(0.49)
(2.33)
SIZE
-
0.323
-
0.322
-
0.480
(3.53)
(3.48)
(5.32)
FIN_CENTER
-
0.883
(2.65)
EUROLAND
-
0.326
-
0.325
(1.81)
(1.79)
OTH_DEVELOP
-
0.203
-
0.201
ED
(1.03)
(1.01)
Constant
1.388
1.390
1.486
(13.17)
(13.08)
(12.33)
Observations
75
71
75
34Original Sin and Political Economy
- Original sin could be due to the absence of a
domestic constituency of local currency
debt-holders prepared to penalize a government
that debase the currency - Tirole (2002) suggests that Original Sin may
arise from the governments inability to commit
to protect the rights of foreigners
35Original Sin and Political Economy
(1)
(2)
(3)
(6)
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
OSIN3
DC_GDP
-
0.332
-
0.554
(1.49)
(2.99)
FOR_DOM
-
7.289
7.224
(2.15)
(0.86)
SIZE
-
0.290
-
0.360
-
0.323
-
0.399
(3.22)
(4.02)
(3.72)
(4.47)
FIN_CENTER
-
0.75
3
-
0.843
-
0.895
(2.40)
(3.02)
(3.23)
EUROLAND
-
0.226
-
0.301
-
0.299
(1.37)
(2.34)
(2.42)
OTH_DEVELOPED
-
0.224
-
0.223
-
0.254
(1.75)
(1.86)
(2.16)
Constant
1.521
1.431
1.291
1.636
(10.13)
(13.76)
(11.15)
(11.32)
Observations
74
73
72
74
36Digression on Domestic Original Sin
- It may be the case that the previous regressions
do not yield any result because we are not able
to measure the real size of the domestic local
currency market - This would require building a measure of domestic
original sin and looking at how it relates to
international original sin
37Digression on Domestic Original Sin
- We were able to build such a measure for a small
sample of 21 developing countries
38Digression on Domestic Original Sin
DSIN0.250.37OSIN3 p value on slope
coefficient 0.11 R20.13 N 21
ARG
IDN
MYS
TUR
VEN
1
BRA
MEX
EGY
.75
HKG
CZE
CHL
.5
DSIN2
PHL
POL
HUN
ISR
SGP
.25
THA
SVK
ZAF
IND
TWN
0
0
.25
.5
.75
1
OSIN3
39Digression on Domestic Original Sin
(1.18)
(3.24)
Constant
-
0.064
0.335
0.217
0.607
0.906
0.218
0.576
0.008
(0.17)
(0.49)
(1.09)
(6.38)
(4.39)
(0.43)
(7.48)
(0.04)
Observations
21
21
21
20
18
18
21
21
R
-
squared
0.09
0.01
0.15
0.08
0.18
0.28
0.07
0.37
40Digression on Domestic Original Sin
TUR
ARG
IDN
MYS
1
VEN
CC0.50
BRA
Not significantly different
MEX
EGY
.75
CC0.69
HKG
CZE
CHL
.5
DSIN2
CC0.45
PHL
POL
HUN
ISR
SGP
.25
THA
SVK
ZAF
IND
TWN
0
0
.25
.5
.75
1
OSIN3
41Digression on Domestic Original Sin
- There is some (weak) evidence that capital
controls may help in reducing domestic original
sin - However, it looks as if capital controls are bad
for for international original sin
42Back to International Original Sin
43Putting Everything Together
(1)
(2)
(3)
(
4
)
(
5
)
OSIN
OSIN
OSIN
OSIN
OSIN
SIZE
-
0.302
-
0.325
-
0.326
-
0.352
-
0.374
(3.32)
(3.48)
(3.50)
(3.88)
(4.05)
GDP
per cap
-
0.262
-
0.127
-
0.
248
-
0.
113
(2.08)
(1.31)
(2.30)
(1.82)
AV_INF
0.288
0.150
0.070
0.274
0.099
(0.89)
(0.4
9)
(0.29)
(0.88)
(0.36)
DE_GDP
-
0.003
-
0.102
0.044
-
0.002
-
0.062
(0.02)
(0.60)
(0.26)
(0.01)
(0.37)
RULE of LAW
0.305
0.091
0.255
(1.61)
(1.88)
(0.70)
-
0.291
DC_GDP
-
0.313
-
0.173
-
0.403
-0.269
(1.25)
(1.05)
(0.59)
(1.38)
(1.14)
FIN_CENTER
-
0.492
-
0.453
-
0.680
(1.45)
(1.31)
(2.06)
EUROLAND
0.032
0.010
-
0.220
(0.15)
(0.04)
(1.18)
OTH_DEVEL.
-
0.053
0.030
-
0.299
(0.24)
(0.14)
(1.55)
Constant
3.506
2.505
1.516
3.437
3.437
(3.54)
(3.22)
(7.66)
(4.03)
(4.03)
Observations
63
63
63
63
63
44- SIZE always significant
- When we include one variable at a time, we find
that - If we control for country groups there is no
other variable that is significantly correlated
with Original Sin - If we do not control for country groups, GDP per
capita, inflation, rule of law, and size of the
financial system are correlated with Original Sin - When we jointly test all the hypotheses, we find
that - When country groups are included, only SIZE is
robustly correlated with Original Sin - When country groups are dropped, GDP per capita
is marginally significant
45- Original sin is not merely a problem of country
policies (one need not deny the relevance of
these, of course) - It is also a problem with the operation of the
international system - In a world with transaction costs and decreasing
returns to diversification, the global portfolio
may have a limited number of currency - If larger countries offer better opportunity for
diversification, country size will matter in the
choice of the global portfolio - Redemption therefore requires international
action to overcome the inertia in the system
46Lessons from outliers
- An interesting fact about the international
issuance of bonds in exotic currency is that it
is mostly done by non-residents who then swap the
debt-service obligation back to US dollar
47Share of local currency international debt issued
by non-residents
1
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Czech
South
New
Poland
Hong Kong
Denmark
Canada
Singapore
Australia
Republic
Africa
Zealand
48Lessons from outliers
- An interesting fact about the international
issuance of bonds in exotic currency is that it
is mostly done by non-residents who then swap the
debt-service obligation back to US dollar - They do this to reduce cost of funding
- But, why is this complex operation cheaper than
borrowing directly in dollar? - A possibility is that the market values the
possibility of separating currency and credit
risk - The IFIs have a natural hedge and could play a
role in expanding this market
49Conclusions
- Original Sin is a widespread phenomenon
- It has costs
- Limits the ability to conduct monetary policy
- Increases volatility
- Increases credit risk
- It cannot be easily explained by weak policies or
institutions - Country size seems to be important
- The IFIs could play a role in reducing Original
Sin
50The Pain and the Mystery of Original Sin
Barry Eichengreen Ricardo Hausmann Ugo Panizza
51Original Sin and Credit Ratings
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
RATING
RATING
RATING
RATING
RATING
RATING
Original Sin
-
5.100
-
4.751
(3.38)
(3.32)
Debt/GDP advanced
4.814
-
2.659
-
1.553
-
2.451
(2.30)
(1.24)
(1.31)
(2.05)
Debt/GDP developing
-
8.627
-
3.671
-
3.557
-
2.475
(4.96)
(2.34)
(2.66)
(1.84)
Developing
-
9.027
-
3.004
(5.78)
(2.38)
Debt/GDP high rating
5.783
-
1.511
(3.10)
(0.83)
Debt/GDP low rating
-
9.207
-
4.438
(5.85)
(3.36)
High rating
8.917
(6.60)
GDP per capita
2.663
1.936
(6.71)
(4.00)
Ex Debt/GDP
2.252
1.751
(1.50)
(1.22)
Constant
13.999
19.757
14.138
11.028
-
6.314
1.606
(15.60)
(15.27)
(17.51)
(15.03)
(1.58)
(0.32)
Observations
61
61
61
61
56
56
DEG_DEVDEG_ADV
F(1,59)41.31
F(1,58)0.14
F(1,59)62.7
F(1,58)1.69
DEG_HRDEG_LR
P0.000
P0.705
P0.000
P0.199