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1
Comparing Population and Economic Data

• Population Data
• --Population change is part of a biological
  process
• --Generally very slow, smooth curves (changes)
• --Not conducive to rapid changes (except in times
  of immense stress)
• --Relatively predictable Slow, long trends in
  migration, fertility, mortality Observable
  trends across races and ages
• --Generally predictable in the short and medium
  term
• --Units of analysis
• People
• Households
• Families

• Economic Data
• --Tied to unpredictable entities Firms,
  Industries, Employees
• --Much shorter periods of observable trends
• --Very unpredictable
• --Many types of variation
• 1) seasonal variation
• 2) cyclical variation
• 3) secular trend
• --Units of analysis
• Employment
• Firms
• Output
• Wages
• Profits
• Industrial Sectors

2
General Sources for Economic Data

• For an excellent overview of sources for economic
  data see the report, Socioeconomic Data for
  Understanding Your Regional Economy A Users
  Guide available at
• http//www.econdata.net/content_usersguide.html
• Much of the following material is taken from
  this report.
• The Big Three at the national level are
• 1) The Census Bureau (Census)
• http//www.census.gov
• 2) Bureau of Labor Statistics
  (BLS) http//www.bls.gov
• 3) Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
• http//www.bea.doc.gov

Portions of this document will be required
reading in next years Forecasting class.
3
The Census Bureau

• In addition to a huge amount of data about
  housing and population, the Census Bureau also
  gathers and makes available data about business
  activity in the United States.
• Business activity data series describe, by
  industry, characteristics such as --the
  aggregate size of the industry (in terms of
  jobs), --the number of companies and
  establishments, and --measures of various
  other aspects of business operation (such as
  investments in building and equipment)
• Key business activity data series include
• Economic Census (every 5 years)
• County Business Patterns (annually)
• Annual Survey of Manufactures (annually)
• We will discussing these data sources in more
  detail.

4
The Bureau of Labor Statistics

• BLS, part of the Department of Labor, is the
  second largest provider of socioeconomic data in
  the U.S., after the Census Bureau.
• BLS provides three types of data series of
  interest to regional analysts
• 1) labor force status of persons (by place of
  residence),
• 2) jobs and wages (by place of work), and
• 3) prices and living conditions
• More specifically for this class, the BLS
  requires states to generate data on jobs and
  wages through two programs
• 1) Covered Employment and Wages (ES-202) a
  quarterly collection of job and wage data from
  all employers participating in state
  unemployment insurance (UI) programs
• 2) Current Employment Statistics (CES)
  through a monthly survey, an estimation of job
  levels and hourly wages, by industry
• We will be discussing these data sources in
  more detail.

5
The Bureau of Economic Analysis

• BEA is part of the Department of Commerce. Unlike
  the Census and BLS, BEA produces one big,
  complex, integrated data set.
• The BEA is best understood to be the national
  economic accountant. BEA reconciles the nation's
  disparate financial and economic data into a
  single set of balanced accounts that provides a
  comprehensive view of the nations economic
  activity.
• These accounts model the circular flow of income
  (as depicted on the next slide).
• BEA produces several other data products that
  reflect its role as the nations economic
  accountant. These are useful to more
  sophisticated regional data users, and include
• 1) Regional Input-Output Modeling System (RIMS
  II) output, earnings and employment multipliers
  by industry
• 2) Gross State Product (GSP) estimates of
  gross state product and its components for
  two-digit SIC categories
• We will learn more about the RIMS data in a later
  discussion of Input-Output modeling.

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The circular flow of income
INJECTIONS
Export expenditure (X)
FIRMS
Investment (I)
Government expenditure (G)
Consumption of domestically produced goods and
services (Cd)
Factor payments
BANKS, etc
GOV.
ABROAD
Import expenditure (M)
Net taxes (T)
Net saving (S)
WITHDRAWALS
HOUSEHOLDS
Taken from a Power Point presentation prepared by
Pam Perlich at the University of Utah.
7
National Income and Product Accounts

• Many of the key aggregate variables used to
  describe an economy are presented in a country's
  National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA).
• National income represents the total amount of
  money that factors of production (firms) earn
  during the course of a year.
• National product, also called national output,
  represents the market value of all goods and
  services produced by firms in a country.
• Information taken from an overview of NIPA
  available at
• http//internationalecon.com/v1.0/Finance/ch5/5c0
  10.html

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National Income and Product Accounts
Individual Product Accounts 1) Personal
consumption expenditures (Durables,
Non-durables, Services) HOUSEHOLD 2) Gross
private domestic investment (Residential fixed
investment, Non-residential fixed investment,
Business inventories) BUSINESS 3) Net exports of
goods and services (exports of goods and services
to other countries - imports of goods and
services) EXPORTS - IMPORTS 4) Government
purchases of goods and services (Durable and
non-durable goods purchased by government,
Payments for factor services by government)
Doesnt include transfer payments
GOVERNMENT Income Accounts 1) Personal income
gt National income gt Net national product gt
Gross national product 2) Personal income minus
personal taxes Disposable income
9
GNP Gross National Product

• The national income and product accounts
  comprise the principal measures of economic
  activity in the United States.
• Gross National Product (GNP) Gross National
  Product measures the annual output of goods and
  services within the national economy
• Two main concepts are at the heart of GNP
• 1) GNP as total of all goods and services
  produced by the economy 2) GNP as total
  of the income payments made to the owners of the
  factors of production (firms) used to
  produce the final output
• Annual estimates of GNP are available since
  1922, originally produced by the National Bureau
  of Economic Research - NBER. Quarterly estimates
  have been available since 1942.
• These estimates are now produced by the Bureau
  of Economic Analysis (BEA). (http//www.bea.doc.go
  v/)

10
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross domestic product (GDP) The market value of
the goods and services produced by labor and
property located in the United States. GDP
measures all production within the borders of the
country regardless of who owns the factors used
in the production process. Gross domestic income
(GDI) Measures output as the costs incurred and
the incomes earned in the production of GDP. In
theory, GDP should equal GDI, but in practice,
they differ slightly. Gross national product
(GNP) The market value of the goods and services
produced by labor and property supplied by U.S.
residents. GNP measures all production achieved
by domestic factors of production regardless of
where that production takes place. Note The
difference between GDP and GNP is net receipts of
income from the rest of the world. These net
receipts represent income from the goods and
services produced abroad using the labor and
property supplied by U.S. residents less
payments to the rest of the world for the goods
and services produced in the United States using
the labor and property supplied by foreign
residents.
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National Income and Product Accounts
GDP C I G EX - IM GDP Residential
Consumption (C) Business Investment (I)
Government Expenditures (G) Exports (EX)
Imports (IM)
GNP

GDI
GDP