1' Outputgap for euro area, Sweden and the USA' Per cent

1
1. Outputgap for euro area, Sweden and the
USA. Per cent
Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat,
NIGEM, SCB, US Department of Commerce and the
Riksbank
2
2. UND1X inflation, outcome and forecasts in
present and previous Inflation Reports Percentage
12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
3
3. CPI inflation, outcome and forecasts in
present and previous Inflation Reports Percentage
12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
4
4. UND1X inflation including och excluding
energy, outcome and forecast according to main
scenario. Percentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
5
Table 1. Inflation forecasts according to main
scenario.Percentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
6
5. Risk perception expressed in pricing of OMX
options
Sources Citibank and the Riksbank
7
6. 10-year government bond rates in Sweden,
Germany and the USA. Percentage points, daily
rates
Source The Riksbank
8
7. Yield curve slope expressed as the
differential between government bond rates with
maturities of 10 and 2 years Percentage points,
daily rates
Source The Riksbank
9
8. Differential between German and Swedish
government bond rates with 10 year maturity and
SEK/EUR exchange rate. Percentage points, daily
rates
Source The Riksbank
10
9. Monetary policy expectations based on forward
interest rates and Prospera's market survey Per
cent
Sources Prospera and the Riksbank
11
10. SEK/USD, SEK/EUR and EUR/USD exchange
rates Daily rates
Source The Riksbank
12
11. Stock market development for OMX, DAX and
Nasdaq Index 1 January 2001100. Daily listings
Source The Riksbank
13
12. SEK/TCW exchange rate Daily rates
Source The Riksbank
14
13. Real interest rates for 5-year and 3-months
to maturity and real TCW-weighted exchange
rate Per cent and index November 1992100.
Monthly data
Source The Riksbank
15
14. OECD area manufacturing output Percentage
12-month change
Source OECD
16
15. OECD area unemployment and inflation Per
cent
Source OECD
17
16. USA GDP growth and unemployment
rate Percentage 12-month change and per cent
Sources Bureau of Labor Statistics and US
Department of Commerce
18
17. US Corporate sector investment and
earnings Percentage quarterly change and
percentage of GDP
Sources Bureau of economic Analysis and US
Department of Commerce
19
18. US Corporate sector productivity, output and
hours worked Annual percentage change
Sources Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau
of Labor Statistics
20
19. USA Public sector budget balance and
current-account balance Percentage of GDP
Source Bureau of Economic Analysis
21
20. Euro area GDP growth and unemployment
rate Annual percentage change and per cent
Source Eurostat
22
21. GDP growth rates in euro area Annual
percentage change
Source Eurostat
23
22. Euro area confidence indicators Purchasing
managers index in EMU and German IFO index.
Sources IFO Institute and NTC Research Ltd
24
23. Oil prices Outcome and forecast USD/barrel
Sources IPE and the Riksbank
25
Table 2. International conditionsAnnual
percentage change
Source The Riksbank
26
Table 3. Demand and supply in the main
scenarioPercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
27
24. Industrial output3-month moving avererage of
percentage changes from corresponding month in
previous year
Source OECD
28
25. Lending by all credit institutions to Swedish
non-bank public sector, breakdownPercentage
12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
29
26. Total gross fixed capital formation in
Finland, Sweden, USA, France and UK. Percentage
12-month change
Sources INSEE, Statistics Sweden, Statistics
Finland, UK Office for National Statistics, US
Department of Commerce and the Riksbank
30
27. Housing investments and started new
construction of apartments.Percentage 12-month
change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
31
28. Inventory investment, percentage of GDP and
GDP including and excluding inventory
investments. Percentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
32
29. Inventory growth in industry, inventory
typePercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
33
30. Exports and import of goodsPer cent,
smoothed 3-month moving average
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
34
31. Public sector financial balance and GDP
growthPer cent
Source Statistics Sweden
35
Table 4. Fiscal policy measures 1998-2002 SEK
billion
Source National Institute of Economic Research
36
32. Consolidated public sectors financial
balance and periodised structural balance. Per
cent of GDP
Sources Ministry of Finance, Statistics Sweden
and the RIksbank
37
33. Households real disposable
incomePercentage 12-month change
Source The Riksbank
38
34. Households consumption expenditures and total
real net wealthPercentage 12-month change
Source Statistics Sweden
39
35. Households consumption expenditure on durable
goods and non-durable goods and services and
total consumptionPercentage 12-month change
Source Statistics Sweden
40
36. Households expectations of their own
finances, Swedens economy and unemployment.Net
figures
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
41
Figure 37. Money supply, M0 and M3 Percentage
12-month change
Source Statistics Sweden
42
38. Households saving ratioPer cent
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
43
39. Number of employed in various sectorsIndex,
1987100, seasonally-adjusted, 3 month sliding
average
Source Statistics Sweden
44
40. Employment in public sectorIndex, 1987100
Source Statistics Sweden
45
Table 5. Labour market forcastPercentage
12-month change
46
41. Labour force, employment and open
unemployment 100s of persons and per cent
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
47
42. Different measures of average working
hoursSeasonally adjusted, 4 quarters sliding
average
Source Statistics Sweden
48
43. Number of employed and absentees from work
due to illness1.000 of persons, seasonally
adjusted, 3 month sliding average
Source Statistics Sweden
49
44. Sick leave, breakdown by length100s of
persons
Source National Social Insurance Board
50
45. Output gap according to three alternative
methods, estimates using data from Q2
2003Percentage of potential GDP
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
51
46. Actual capacity utilisation in industry and
percentage of firms with production factors as
primary limitationPer cent
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
52
47. Bottlenecks in construction industryPer
cent, seasonally adjusted
Source National Institute of Economic Research
53
48. New and unfilled job vacancies with a
duration of more than ten days and redundancy
noticesSeasonally adjusted, 3-month sliding
average
Source Swedish National Labour Market Board
54
49.Hourly wages in corporate sector Percentage
12-month change
Source National Mediation Office
55
50. Hourly wages in public sectorPercentage
12-month change
Source National Mediation Office
56
Table 6. Wages and productivity Percentage
12-month change
Note. Due to rounding off, figures do not add up
to total.
57
51. Unit labour cost in corporate sector and
UND1X excluding energyPercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
58
52. Profit shares in corporate sectorPercentage
of GDP
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
59
53. CPI and inflation expectations of households
and firmsPer cent
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
60
Table 7. Expected 12-month rates of inflation
according to Prosperas survey in October 2003,
unless otherwise specifiedPercentage 12-month
change in CPI
Sources National Institute of Economic Research
and Statistics Sweden
61
54. Consumer import prices excluding oil. Outcome
and forecast in the main scenarioPercentage
12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
62
55. Energy pricesPercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
63
56. UNDINHX. Outcome and forecasts in the main
scenarioPercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
64
57. Different measures of inflation, outcomes
and forecast in the main scenarioPercentage
12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
65
58. UND1X. Outcomes and forecasts in main
scenarioPercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
66
Table 8. Domestic inflation (UNDINHX)Percentage
12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
67
Table 9. Change in CPI compared with
UND1XPercentage 12-month change and percentage
points
Source The Riksbank
68
Table 10. Inflation forecast in the main
scenarioPercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
69
59. UND1X excluding energyPercentage 12-month
change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
70
60. UND1X with uncertainty intervalsPercentage
12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
71
61. CPI-inflation with uncertainty
intervalsPercentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
72
Table 11. Inflation forecasts including the risk
spectrumPercentage 12-month change
Source The Riksbank
73
Table 12. UND1X-inflation (12-month rate)
Percentage probability
Source The Riksbank
74
Table 13, CPI-inflation (12-month
rate)Percentage probabillity for different
outcomes
Source The Riksbank
75
62. Population growth in Sweden, 16-64
yearsPercentage 12-month change
Source Statistics Sweden
76
B1. Repo rate and rates on 2-year and 5-year
mortgage loans Per cent
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
77
B2. CPI and UND1X inflation outcomes and
forecast in Inflation Report 19992Per cent
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
78
B3. CPI inflation outcome and forecast in
Inflation Report 20012 and CPI excluding
transitory effects Per cent
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
79
B4. Political and economic factors affecting oil
prices 1970-2003 USD/barrel
Sources IPE and Center for Global Energy Studies
80
B5. OECD manufacturing output and oil prices
Percentage 12-month change, 3-month smoothed
average
Sources IPE and OECD
81
B6. Oil prices and oil stocks in the
USA USD/barrel och 1000s of barrels
Sources IPE and American Petroleum Institute
82
B7. OPEC's market share and oil prices Per cent
and USD/barrel
Sources Bloomberg and IPE
83
B8. Correlation between US oil stocks and oil
prices, 1999-2003 Millions barrels/day and
USD/barrel
Sources IPE and American Petroleum Institute
84
B9. A selection of historical oil forecasts and
outcomesUSD/barrel
Sources IPE and the Riksbank
85
B10. Electricity spot and forward rates on Nord
Pool SEK/MWh
Sources Nord Pool and the Riksbank
86
B11. Different measures of underlying
inflation. Percentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
87
B12. UND1X inflation excluding energy broken down
by goods and services Percentage 12-montch
change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
88
B13. Manufactured products in the producer
channel, domestic prices and import
prices Percentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
89
B14. Services prices Percentage 12-month change
Sources Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
90
B15. Consumer price developments for goods in
different countries Percentage 12-month change
Sources Eurostat, Bureau of Labor Statistics and
Management and Coordination Agency
91
B16. Effects of a fall in aggregate demand Price
levels and production levels
Source The Riksbank
92
B17. Effects of an increase in aggregate
supply Price levels and production levels
Source The Riksbank
93
B18. Price levels trends with a price level
target and an inflation target respectively
Source The Riksbank
94
B19. Inflation trends with aprice level target
and inflation target respectively Percentage
increase
Source The Riksbank
95
B20. Price level and exchange rate trends Price
level and exchange rate
Source The Riksbank