State retrenchments and class dynamics: the

1

• State retrenchments and class dynamics the
  new middle class(es) under strain

• Louis ChauvelPr at Sciences-Po University Paris
  and Institut Universitaire de France
• Site http//louis.chauvel.free.fr
• chauvel_at_sciences-po.fr

2

• Intentions
• Developing aspects of my book in cohort dynamics
  of inequality Destiny of Generations
• Questioning the cohort sustainability of the
  French welfare regime
• Focusing less on the extremes (poverty,
  exclusion, or the élite) than on inequality at
  the center
• Are the middle classes facing new challenges ?

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Facing a French paradox/contradiction1- France
as a country of stable, comfortable,
equalitarian, protected middle class 2- France
as a country of political instability,
uncertainty and problems April 21st 2002 extreme
right wing candidate Jean-Marie Le Pen
qualification for the 2nd turn of presidential
elections, rejection of the European Treaty May
29 2005, populist streams, xenophobia, fears,
youth despair, strikes and riots, CPE
 Yes  at two European referendums in France by
socio-occupational group ()
Maastricht
treaty
European constitutional
referendum

treaty referendum

Change

20 September 1992

29 may 2005



Higher service class

66

67

1

Non agric. Self employed

49

53

4

Diff 23
Diff 37
Lower service class

55

46

-
9

Routine white collars

47

37

-
10

Blue collar workers

43

30

-
13

Tot 51
Tot 46

Source  My own computation of CEVIPOF 1995
microdata and CSA postelectoral survey 2005.
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• Precision the French Middle class the class
  of the middle Frenchmen and Frenchwomen
• Income (and other resources) close to the
  national average
• Occupational status in an intermediate position
• (Representations, culture and consciousness,
  notably adhesion to an optimistic vision of
  upward mobility)
• Plan
• France Middle class in an apparent stability
• Back to a schmollerian definition
• The middle class dynamics and welfare state
  retrenchments
• Conclusion post-affluent societies and the
  middle class(es)

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The French apparent stability
Gini Coef. and interdecile ratios of after tax
and transfer incomes (by consumption units)
Source  The Luxembourg Income Study database 
http//www.lisproject.org and French Family
expenditure surveys-INSEE 2000 for France
1999-2000 (archives Maurice Halbwachs Center).
6
France wave of intercohort inequalities
after tax and transfer incomes (by consumption
units)
1,4
Relative income (1Tot)
Cohort wave
1,3
1,2
1979
1,1
1984
1,0
1989
1994
0,9
1999
Decline of 25 pts
0,8
0,7
Age groups
0,6
20
30
40
50
60
Source  The Luxembourg Income Study database 
http//www.lisproject.org and French Family
expenditure surveys-INSEE 2000 for France
1999-2000 (data archives Maurice Halbwachs
Center).
7
France decline in senior intracohort
inequalitiesand increase for juniors
after tax and transfer incomes (by consumption
units)
Interdecile ratio
1979
1979
1984
1984
1989
1989
1994
1994
1999
1999
Age groups
Source  The Luxembourg Income Study database 
http//www.lisproject.org and French Family
expenditure surveys-INSEE 2000 for France
1999-2000 (archives Maurice Halbwachs Center).
8
Back to a schmollerian definition Schmoller G.,
1897, Was verstehen wir unter dem Mittelstande?
Hat er im 19. Jahrhundert zu oder abgenommen?,
Göttingen, Vandenhoeck und Ruprecht. Against the
Marxist theory of absolute pauperization gt
Late Nineteenth century and the expansion of
large state and private technical, managerial and
expertise bureaucracies supported and
institutionalized by increasing social rights
foster the constitution of a culturally educated
and economically comfortable neu mittelstand
New higher middle class
gt The state is not simply an equalitarian
ruler, a provider of decommodified resources, it
is also a specific employer
Old higher middle class
New lower middle class
Old lower middle class
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The middle class dynamics and Welfare state
expansions and retrenchments
The demography of the middle classes ( of the
total population, 20 to 59 year old)
Sources Enquêtes emploi 1982-2002 INSEE, Lasmas
Iresco/ Institut Quételet (Each year, N70.000).
Note Higher independents are self-employed
professionals, managers of private companies with
10 employees or more Lower independents are self
employed craftsmen and tradesmen. Pub is for
public status wage earners in public or national
companies, public hospitals or in local
government administrations. Private is for wage
earners in private contracts.
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• Which is the gap between real positions and
  candidates ?
• We consider 4 occupational groups Higher
  service class with public long term contract,
  higher service class with private contract, the
  same for lower service class.
• In 1982, we estimate the probability of
  membership to these 4 occupational groups by
  education, gender, social origin (polytomic
  logistic reg.) for two age groups (30-34 and
  50-54 age groups)
• We estimate from 1983 to 2000 the probabilities
  of theoretical membership (candidates given
  education, gender, social origin) (gt higher
  level of education multiplication of candidates)

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Empirical and theoretical in different
occupational groups evolution of different
social groups in Age Group 50-55 year old Age
Group 30-35 year old
Sources Enquêtes emploi 1982-2002 INSEE, Lasmas
Iresco/ Institut Quételet.
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• Conclusions
• Decline in youth relative income
• Increase of inequality indexes for the young
• Excess of candidates for available positions in
  public intermediate positions
• The young generation with short university
  curricula face a backlash in the
  intergenerational mobility opportunities
• Strong frustrations of the youth in a society
  where seniors benefit from a clear real
  expansion
• But is the new middle class really new
  ?(Declining return to cultural capital)

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Farewell to cultural capital No more books to
sell The former Librairie des PUF (Presses
universitaires de France) Place de la Sorbonne
(closed on december 2005 - a kind of lower
middle class Zara will open soon)
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The upper middle and working classes in the
durkheimian space
Upper Middle Classes 2006
Integration (social capital )
Associationnism, stronger participation to civil
society, local groups of pressure, etc.
Upper Middle Classes 1960
Working classes 1960
Regulation (Autonomy)
Regulation (Heteronomy)
Working classes 2006
Trade union decline, dismantlement of large
production sites, individualization of the
assessment of performance, etc.
Integration - (social capital -)