Analysis%20of%20North%20Korean%20Nuclear%20Crisis

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Analysis of North Korean Nuclear Crisis

• Lecture Note for Pease Studies II
• November 15, 2006
• Sung Chull Kim
• Hiroshima Peace institute

2
Preliminary questions

• What is the nature of North Korean problem, that
  is, the nuclear weapons development?
• Why has North Korea conducted nuclear test?
• What would be a solution to the problem?

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North Korea in Northeast Asia
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North Korea Profile

• Population 22,697,553 (July 2004 est.)
• Population growth rate 0.98 (2004 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth total population 71.08
  years, male 68.38 years, female 73.92 years
  (2004 est.)
• Natural resources coal, lead, tungsten, zinc,
  graphite, magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold (no
  oil or natural gas)
• Land use arable land 20.76
• Food shortage around 2million tons per year

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Nature of North Korean nuclear crisis and nuclear
test

• On October 9, 2006, North Korea conducted
  nuclear test.
• Reflection of North Koreas perceived insecurity
  in the post-Cold War period
• (Both domestic and international)

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Background of the crisis (international and
domestic)

• For North Korea, the U.S. is the key to solve
  all the diplomatic problems. (North Korea has
  asked the U.S. to have bilateral talks and lift
  of financial sanctions as a precondition to
  return to the Six-Party Talks.)
• National crisis erupted in junction with the
  collapse of socialism in Eastern Europe and the
  former Soviet Union.
• - shortage of energy, foreign currency, food
• - death of Kim Il Sung in 1994

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Kim Il Sungs death and transfer of power to Kim
Jong-il in 1994
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Arduous March
9
Transitions for survival
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(US sanctions on North Korea)

• Domestic laws and regulations has denied since
  1953
• - trade (Trading with Enemy Act, Commercial
  Control List)
• - any loans or credit facilities from
  international financial institutions such as the
  IMF and the World Bank
• - the status of beneficiary developing country
  under the U.S. Generalized System of Preference
• - assistance from Peace Corps programs
• - approval for application to investment risk
  insurance programs in the Overseas Private
  Investment Corporation
• a grant from U.S. agricultural commodities to
  developing and least developed countries
• 2005 financial sanction on North Korean bank
  account in Macao (Banco Delta Aisa)

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Chronology of Nuclear Crises

• 1991 South-North Basic Agreement
• 1992 South-North Joint Declaration of the
  Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
• 1. no nuclear weapons
• 2. use of nuclear energy solely for peaceful
  purpose
• 3. no nuclear reprocessing, no uranium
  enrichment

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Chronology, continue

• 1992 IAEA inspects nuclear facility at Yongbyon
  and concludes there are inconsistencies between
  North Korea's declaration and inspection results
  (see the map)/
• 1993 IAEA request special inspection on the two
  unreported, suspect, facilities (waste storages)/
  North Koreas rejection
• 1993 North Koreas exit of NPT and declaration
  of state of semi-war (the 1st nuclear crisis)
• 1994 Former President Carter visits North Korea
  Kim Il Sung offers to freeze North Korea's
  nuclear program in return for high-level talks
  between the U.S. and North Korea.
• 1994 U.S. and North Korea conclude the Geneva
  Agreed Framework. (see next)

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(Agreed Framework, Oct. 1994)

• Freeze of nuclear facilities NKs freeze of
  graphite-moderated reactors and related
  facilities, being compensated by US arrangement
  of light-water reactor (LWR) power plants with a
  generating capacity of 2,000 MW(e) by 2003
• Dismantlement Dismantlement of the frozen
  facilities, when the LWR project is completed
• Normalization US and NK move toward full
  normalization of political and economic
  relations
• In 1995, Korean Peninsula Energy Development
  Organization (KEDO) was established for the
  construction of two light-water nuclear reactors
  in North Korea.

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Chronology, continue

• 2000 summit between South and North Koreas (Kim
  Dae-jung and Kim Jong Il), Joint Declaration
• 2002 summit between Japan and North Korea
  (Koizumi Junichiro and Kim Jong Il), Pyongyang
  Declaration
• 2002 North Korea confesses its nuclear project
  based on highly enriched uranium (HEU) to James
  Kelly, special envoy from the United States (the
  2nd nuclear crisis)
• 2002 KEDO decides the stop of sending of heavy
  oil to North Korea.
• 2002 North Korea expels IAEA inspection teams.
• 2003 North Korea declares the exit from NPT.
• 2005 declaration of nuclear state status
• 2005 Joint Statement of the 4th Round of the
  Six-Party Talks (see next)
• 2005 dissolution of KEDO
• 2006 missile launches
• 2006 underground nuclear test

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Quest for solution Six-Party Talks

• Participants North Korea, China, Russia, Japan,
  South Korea, US
• - Chinas active role for moderating especially
  the differences between North Korea and Japan
• Joint Statement of the 4th Six-Party talks 19th
  Sept. 2005
• - Verifiable denuclearization of the Korean
  peninsula, DPRKs abandoning of nuclear weapons
  and nuclear programs US of no intention of
  invasion, 1992 Joint Declaration of the
  Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula as the
  benchmark, future discussion about provision of
  light water reactor
• - abiding the Charter of UN and recognition of
  norms of international relations, normalization
  of DPRK-US, NK-Japan relations
• - economic assistance to NK, energy aid by the
  five countries, power aid of 2 million kw by ROK
  
• - efforts for the peace and stability in
  Northeast Asia, peace regime talk at a separate
  forum
• - principle of commitment for commitment, action
  for action
• But more more progress since the U.S. financial
  sanction in 2005. North Koreas defiance, that
  is, nuclear test in October 2006

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United Nations sanctions

• UN Security Council Resolution 1695 (adopted on
  July 15, 2006, in relation to North Koreas
  missile launches on July 4, 2006)
• condemns the test-firing of that series of
  missiles
• calls on all member countries to prevent the
  transfer of missile-related technology and
  products to North Korea
• demands North Korea to institute moratorium on
  missile launches.
• UN Security Council Resolution 1718 (adopted on
  October 14, 2006, in relation to North Koreas
  nuclear test on October 9, 2006)
• demands no more test and suspension of all
  ballistic missile programs
• Call on all member countries to prevent arms
  supply, prevent materials and technology related
  to nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction
• freeze of funds and assets of those who supports
  the nuclear and weapons of mass
  destruction-related programs

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Concluding remarks

• The Korean peninsular still remains as the last
  remaining island of the Cold War because of the
  division between two Koreas, both of which
  maintain heavily armed military forces.
• UN Security Councils sanctions are legitimate
  but the sanctions are not the goal but a means to
  achieve the goal of nuclear-free Korean
  peninsula.
• Eventually, engagement into North Korea by
  neighbors, especially the U.S. and Japan, will
  contribute to the elimination of North Koreas
  nuclear weapons project.